By round 10, some managers lose focus. Many of you know what I'm talking about. This is when someone might reach for a just-retired 2019 Gronk, on the off chance he returns. Or someone could grab the wrong name, like Rams' rookie WR Mike Thomas in 2016 instead of Saints' rookie WR Michael Thomas. Titles can be won or lost in the 10th rounds. Just look at last summer, when four of the eventual top eight fantasy QBs--Lamar Jackson Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, and Kyler Murray--all owned roughly 10th-round ADPs.
Less than a week before Week 1, here's the top bargain and bust in this extraordinarily important group:
109 Austin Hooper CLE (9) TE12
110 Darius Slayton NYG (11) WR45
111 Tevin Coleman SF (11) RB40
112 Hayden Hurst ATL (10) TE13
113 Jerry Jeudy DEN (8) WR46
114 Zack Moss BUF (11) RB41
115 Pittsburgh Steelers DST (8) DST2
116 Henry Ruggs III LV (6) WR47
117 Justin Jefferson MIN (7) WR48
118 Sony Michel NE (6) RB42
119 Darrell Henderson LAR (9) RB43
120 Baltimore Ravens DST (8) DST3
Based on past comments, I know some of you are salivating over Hurst, who could finally make good after being buried in Baltimore's depth chart. There's a lot to love about Zack Moss, especially with Devin Singletary showing ball-control issues--and anyway, Singletary never profiled as a bellcow-caliber back, making Moss the higher-upside option of the two. Ruggs has a nice situation with Tyrell Williams now out for the year. Jerry Jeudy and Darius Slayton should outperform expectations without too much trouble. And most of you know my love for Austin Hooper, who I've hyped two straight summers, and who's a near-lock to be a TE1.
But my favorite bargain is Minnesota rookie Justin Jefferson. While some are reporting Bisi Johnson will start the season as the #2 wideout, there's no doubt Jefferson is more talented and will soon overtake Johnson. In fact, I'm pegging Jefferson as a top-35 WR with top 20-25 upside. Adam Thielen is exceptional, but he was also one of the most-targeted WRs in football in 2017 (9th) and 2018 (6th). Although this is a run-friendly team, Jefferson will be no worse than the #2 receiver across 16 games, and could make a play for #1 honors. There's no one I'd rather have in round 10.
My biggest bust could be Sony Michel. I didn't like Bill Belichick selecting him in the first round. Is Michel merely a poor man's Stevan Ridley? Is that fair to say? Or should I say, Laurence Maroney-ish? Maybe that's not fair. But entering year 3, Michel hasn't earned a starting or even co-starting role. What's holding me back is Damien Harris's pinky injury, which could sideline him next weekend. This might give Michel a shot at claiming a "hot-hand" starting nod, at least in the opening weeks.
So my biggest bust has to be Darrell Henderson. In addition to being hurt (again), he's at risk of starting the year as the third-stringer running behind a bottom-third o-line. Despite owning a reasonable ADP, he's a cheap lottery ticket that won't be worth much (possibly an RB3) even if you win. What's more likely is that he'll sit out a game or two, rookie Cam Akers will begin to get acclimated to the NFL, and veteran Malcolm Brown will be competent enough. When Henderson returns, he'll struggle to earn more than eight touches a game. While it's possible he cracks the RB4 tier, he's the least exciting pick in this group and shouldn't help anyone win a title.
Less than a week before Week 1, here's the top bargain and bust in this extraordinarily important group:
109 Austin Hooper CLE (9) TE12
110 Darius Slayton NYG (11) WR45
111 Tevin Coleman SF (11) RB40
112 Hayden Hurst ATL (10) TE13
113 Jerry Jeudy DEN (8) WR46
114 Zack Moss BUF (11) RB41
115 Pittsburgh Steelers DST (8) DST2
116 Henry Ruggs III LV (6) WR47
117 Justin Jefferson MIN (7) WR48
118 Sony Michel NE (6) RB42
119 Darrell Henderson LAR (9) RB43
120 Baltimore Ravens DST (8) DST3
Based on past comments, I know some of you are salivating over Hurst, who could finally make good after being buried in Baltimore's depth chart. There's a lot to love about Zack Moss, especially with Devin Singletary showing ball-control issues--and anyway, Singletary never profiled as a bellcow-caliber back, making Moss the higher-upside option of the two. Ruggs has a nice situation with Tyrell Williams now out for the year. Jerry Jeudy and Darius Slayton should outperform expectations without too much trouble. And most of you know my love for Austin Hooper, who I've hyped two straight summers, and who's a near-lock to be a TE1.
But my favorite bargain is Minnesota rookie Justin Jefferson. While some are reporting Bisi Johnson will start the season as the #2 wideout, there's no doubt Jefferson is more talented and will soon overtake Johnson. In fact, I'm pegging Jefferson as a top-35 WR with top 20-25 upside. Adam Thielen is exceptional, but he was also one of the most-targeted WRs in football in 2017 (9th) and 2018 (6th). Although this is a run-friendly team, Jefferson will be no worse than the #2 receiver across 16 games, and could make a play for #1 honors. There's no one I'd rather have in round 10.
My biggest bust could be Sony Michel. I didn't like Bill Belichick selecting him in the first round. Is Michel merely a poor man's Stevan Ridley? Is that fair to say? Or should I say, Laurence Maroney-ish? Maybe that's not fair. But entering year 3, Michel hasn't earned a starting or even co-starting role. What's holding me back is Damien Harris's pinky injury, which could sideline him next weekend. This might give Michel a shot at claiming a "hot-hand" starting nod, at least in the opening weeks.
So my biggest bust has to be Darrell Henderson. In addition to being hurt (again), he's at risk of starting the year as the third-stringer running behind a bottom-third o-line. Despite owning a reasonable ADP, he's a cheap lottery ticket that won't be worth much (possibly an RB3) even if you win. What's more likely is that he'll sit out a game or two, rookie Cam Akers will begin to get acclimated to the NFL, and veteran Malcolm Brown will be competent enough. When Henderson returns, he'll struggle to earn more than eight touches a game. While it's possible he cracks the RB4 tier, he's the least exciting pick in this group and shouldn't help anyone win a title.