Yesterday's injury news will dominate tomorrow's waiver decisions, so let's dive in.
Last summer, and then again this summer, I warned that historically RBs who earn 350+ touches are high-probability regression candidates the following season--and even more so for 400+ touch RBs. My position was blunt: Hope you don't get the #1 pick in the draft, not because CMC isn't incredible, but because about 80% of people who matched his outsized workload did worse the following year, whether because of poorer play and/or injuries.
Numbers don't lie. Obviously they aren't indicative of what will happen in each case. But at the very least, they're instructive. At the most, they're actionable. And CMC was a huge risk, plain and simple. My opinion was not popular, but in future years I'll share similar warnings again and again: when Result A leads to Result B about 80% of the time, react. Sometimes in the moment we look stupid. But I'd rather look stupid and win than look smart and lose.
Mike Davis will be a huge waiver add. While it remains to be seen how he'll do in the bellcow spotlight, he's the low-hanging top-25 RB many have been waiting for.
Courtland Sutton's season-ending injury propels rookie Jerry Jeudy to the top-30 WR realm, and possibly top-24, depending on how heavily he's leaned on. Of course, Noah Fant gets a big bump (all you Fant fans can relax now).
Parris Campbell's injury gives T.Y. Hilton a needed boost. The veteran won't be this bad all year; I like buying him low, if that's still possible.
Jerick McKinnon is back on top, at least for one week. It only took 35 regular season games since his high-priced 2017 signing to be "the guy." Eight receptions and a 25+ point fantasy day would not surprise me, even if (or maybe especially if) Jimmy G is sidelined.
Finally, nice to see Tre'Quan Smith producing last night. Assuming Michael Thomas misses more games, the little-rostered Smith appears to be the best bet not named Kamara. If you're rostering Emmanuel Sanders, it's hard to see why.