COVID and RB Production

My opponent this past week had the top two scorers (Alvin Kamara and Patrick Mahomes) and the #9 scorer (Justin Jefferson).  Meanwhile, I was playing without my first and second round picks (Michael Thomas and Davante Adams).  Yet I was still winning heading into Monday night.

Weeks like this can cause us to complain, or they can motivate us to get better.  Complaints don't fix anything.  Luck tends to balance out, and a team with Dak Prescott, Thomas, Adams, Keenan Allen, David Johnson, Darrell Henderson, Mike Davis, and Hunter Henry should--on paper--win more weeks than not.  The key is to react without overreacting.

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On the RB front, in Week 1 five RB1 performers were not preseason RB1s (most of these five weren't even close).  The same for Week 2.  In Week 3 six RB1 performers weren't preseason RB1s.

I'll keep repeating: It's not hard to find one or more top-20 RBs on waivers each season.  Often we can find 5-10.  It's why I never pay market value for an RB unless he's essentially guaranteed to keep the starting job.  In other words, I'm not paying for Myles Gaskin, but I will pay for Zeke Elliott.  Gaskin's value could go up a little and down a lot; Zeke is pretty steady barring an injury.  Conversely, if you have someone like Gaskin, what a great time to sell high.  Maybe he keeps it going, but you can lock in safer production elsewhere by selling now.

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Yesterday COVID did what COVID is gonna do: wreak havoc.  The Titans and Vikings are on hold for the next few days, threatening their Week 4 contests.  As it stands, this all appears manageable.  Games could be pushed to Monday, or even to a bye week.

But this is the first big test, and there probably will be bigger ones in the coming weeks.  As I've written many times, I'd be shocked if this season continues beyond October.

From a fantasy perspective, it means not knowing for sure if some games will be played, and in leagues with smallish benches (five spots or fewer), some managers might just have to hold their breath and hope it doesn't cost them a W.

However, it does create some interesting trade opportunities.  An 0-3 team with Derrick Henry might be willing to trade Henry at slightly below market value to get a sure-fire Week 4 starter in return.  So there are opportunities here if you play it right (i.e. don't come off as too greedy).