Before jumping into round 9 of the bargain/bust rundown, a word on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. About a month ago some folks were pushing him as a first rounder. I cautioned he was better valued in round 2, given the unknowns of a rookie ramping up in what I expected would be a COVID-shortened preseason. More than that, regardless of the incredible opportunity to run with an elite offense, CEH is still an unproven commodity. In the past week, I've seen people push him as high as fourth overall. Why? I really don't understand it. Why put so much faith in a rookie RB--as talented as he is--ahead of incredibly reliable elite WRs and very reliable RB1s?
So if I'm drafting, I'm eyeing CEH at his current overall-16 ADP (RB-12). He could realistically finish 16th-20th in Darrel Williams earns 6-8 touches a game, and he could realistically finish around 7th-8th if things break right. But top 4 seems excessively optimistic. In the first round, take the near-automatic points and move on. I don't see CEH as an automatic bellcow.
Now, here's the top 97-108 ADP group:
97 Jamison Crowder NYJ (11) WR39
98 Diontae Johnson PIT (8) WR40
99 Carson Wentz PHI (9) QB12
100 John Brown BUF (11) WR41
101 Sterling Shepard NYG (11) WR42
102 Marlon Mack IND (7) RB38
103 Emmanuel Sanders NO (6) WR43
104 San Francisco 49ers DST (11) DST1
105 Latavius Murray NO (6) RB39
106 CeeDee Lamb DAL (10) WR44
107 Matthew Stafford DET (5) QB13
108 Noah Fant DEN (8) TE11
The best round 9 bargain hinges somewhat on what you think about drafting elite DSTs this early. I've never shied from grabbing an elite DST at the right time. The question is, when is the right time? Last year the Patriots were a preseason top 10-12 option, I believe. They ended up scoring 74 more points than the fourth best DST. By this point in the draft, you'd be hard-pressed to find any player with a seemingly obvious advantage over players with comparable positional ADPs.
So are the Niners as good as advertised? Do you pocket the points and move on, knowing you might average an extra 2-3+ points per week over many opponents? Or is there a more obvious bargain in this group? As we get deeper, it increasingly comes down to your needs. If you've been waiting on a QB, congratulations: Stafford is a steal at this spot. If you've overloaded on RBs and one startable WR, CeeDee Lamb is a great-upside selection. And of course, Murray is a must-draft if Alvin Kamara's contract discussions suddenly take a very bad turn--or if he's traded (though I still believe Murray will be overbought).
But my top target in this group--the guy most likely to pay back more than you invested--is Crowder. His co-receivers have been hobbled, and he's a proven WR3. His ADP doesn't align with reality. So while of course it depends on your needs, all things being equal, Crowder is the clearest bargain in this group.
On the bust side, I've gotta say Fant. Yes, he could take a step forward after last year's #16 finish. But I don't see how he posts top-8 numbers. So there's no sensible reason to grab a back-end TE1 (at best) with so much higher-upside talent available.
So if I'm drafting, I'm eyeing CEH at his current overall-16 ADP (RB-12). He could realistically finish 16th-20th in Darrel Williams earns 6-8 touches a game, and he could realistically finish around 7th-8th if things break right. But top 4 seems excessively optimistic. In the first round, take the near-automatic points and move on. I don't see CEH as an automatic bellcow.
Now, here's the top 97-108 ADP group:
97 Jamison Crowder NYJ (11) WR39
98 Diontae Johnson PIT (8) WR40
99 Carson Wentz PHI (9) QB12
100 John Brown BUF (11) WR41
101 Sterling Shepard NYG (11) WR42
102 Marlon Mack IND (7) RB38
103 Emmanuel Sanders NO (6) WR43
104 San Francisco 49ers DST (11) DST1
105 Latavius Murray NO (6) RB39
106 CeeDee Lamb DAL (10) WR44
107 Matthew Stafford DET (5) QB13
108 Noah Fant DEN (8) TE11
The best round 9 bargain hinges somewhat on what you think about drafting elite DSTs this early. I've never shied from grabbing an elite DST at the right time. The question is, when is the right time? Last year the Patriots were a preseason top 10-12 option, I believe. They ended up scoring 74 more points than the fourth best DST. By this point in the draft, you'd be hard-pressed to find any player with a seemingly obvious advantage over players with comparable positional ADPs.
So are the Niners as good as advertised? Do you pocket the points and move on, knowing you might average an extra 2-3+ points per week over many opponents? Or is there a more obvious bargain in this group? As we get deeper, it increasingly comes down to your needs. If you've been waiting on a QB, congratulations: Stafford is a steal at this spot. If you've overloaded on RBs and one startable WR, CeeDee Lamb is a great-upside selection. And of course, Murray is a must-draft if Alvin Kamara's contract discussions suddenly take a very bad turn--or if he's traded (though I still believe Murray will be overbought).
But my top target in this group--the guy most likely to pay back more than you invested--is Crowder. His co-receivers have been hobbled, and he's a proven WR3. His ADP doesn't align with reality. So while of course it depends on your needs, all things being equal, Crowder is the clearest bargain in this group.
On the bust side, I've gotta say Fant. Yes, he could take a step forward after last year's #16 finish. But I don't see how he posts top-8 numbers. So there's no sensible reason to grab a back-end TE1 (at best) with so much higher-upside talent available.