First off, I mentioned earlier this month that I was postponing my annual top 300 fantasy rankings and the Premier Fantasy Football League until 2021. But with so many of you drafting this weekend and next, I want to reiterate both. If you've donated/registered for the rankings, you're already automatically signed up for 2021; there's nothing else you need to do except wait for brighter days ahead. All you PFFL people, believe me: I'm itching to compete again, too. This season is all about taking things a week at a time. I don't want a situation where a team is sidelined for a week because of a few positive tests, and a bunch of managers feel ripped off because several of their starters now have to be benched.
We all know what we're getting into this season--the risks involved. But I'm investing in the integrity of both my rankings and the PFFL, and I can't guarantee the integrity of either in this climate.
Elsewhere, I gotta mention Le'Veon Bell. Reports out of camp are not good. I've been high on him all summer, but Week 1 approaching quickly and no preseason game tape, what are we left with? Talk of a 60-40 split between Bell and Frank Gore. Warnings that Gore looks better in camp. And so on. As I've shared many times, often these reports are somewhere between irrelevant and somewhat relevant. How many times have we seen a headline like "XYZ receiver is catching everything in practice" or "ABC running back looking explosive"? If Bell is somehow just as bad or worse playing behind a better line in a make-or-break year (there's a good chance the Jets likely cut him after the season), then why give him 60% of the snaps? If he's that bad, wouldn't the franchise see what they have in rookie La'Michal Perine?
Reports are reports. The coaching staff has a plan. It might or might not include a healthy dose of Bell. He's obviously as risky as ever, and at the same time, I wouldn't count him out yet.
Now, on the round 6 (ADP 61-72) in our bargain/bust rundown:
61 Terry McLaurin WAS (8) WR27
62 D'Andre Swift DET (5) RB24
63 Mark Ingram II BAL (8) RB25
64 Raheem Mostert SF (11) RB26
65 David Montgomery CHI (11) RB27
66 Kareem Hunt CLE (9) RB28
67 Cam Akers LAR (9) RB29
68 Jarvis Landry CLE (9) WR28
69 A.J. Green CIN (9) WR29
70 Evan Engram NYG (11) TE6
71 Marquise Brown BAL (8) WR30
72 Tyler Boyd CIN (9) WR31
With De'Andre Swift and David Montgomery hurt, Evan Engram likely to get hurt, Jarvis Landry still recovering, these guys can't be analyzed the same way. Landry is an easy bargain if he's back even by Week 3. The same goes for the highly undervalued Montgomery if he's good for the opening weekend. Do you think Mostert will be the clear #1? If so, of course he looks like a buy. But Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon aren't going anywhere (at least while healthy). And with Joe Mixon ailing, Green's stock points upward (though age and recent injury history are obvious warning flags).
Since I have to pick only one bargain, it has to be Hunt. If I knew Landry would be good for 16 games, I might lean his way. The same goes for Green. But Hunt is too talented to be the 66th player off the board. I shared some research recently demonstrating his terrific goal-line conversion history. 50 receptions and double-digit TDs are realistic. I want him as a 200-touch RB2 with massive upside if Nick Chubb goes down. He doesn't have the stand-alone upside of some other guys on this list. But he's the most likely bargain in my opinion.
On the bust side, it has to be Swift. A week ago this would have been a tougher decision. But you're playing with fire drafting an injured rookie RB trying to supplant a starter in a pandemic-shortened training camp. The fact that he's still ranked ahead of someone like Hunt is insane.
We all know what we're getting into this season--the risks involved. But I'm investing in the integrity of both my rankings and the PFFL, and I can't guarantee the integrity of either in this climate.
Elsewhere, I gotta mention Le'Veon Bell. Reports out of camp are not good. I've been high on him all summer, but Week 1 approaching quickly and no preseason game tape, what are we left with? Talk of a 60-40 split between Bell and Frank Gore. Warnings that Gore looks better in camp. And so on. As I've shared many times, often these reports are somewhere between irrelevant and somewhat relevant. How many times have we seen a headline like "XYZ receiver is catching everything in practice" or "ABC running back looking explosive"? If Bell is somehow just as bad or worse playing behind a better line in a make-or-break year (there's a good chance the Jets likely cut him after the season), then why give him 60% of the snaps? If he's that bad, wouldn't the franchise see what they have in rookie La'Michal Perine?
Reports are reports. The coaching staff has a plan. It might or might not include a healthy dose of Bell. He's obviously as risky as ever, and at the same time, I wouldn't count him out yet.
Now, on the round 6 (ADP 61-72) in our bargain/bust rundown:
61 Terry McLaurin WAS (8) WR27
62 D'Andre Swift DET (5) RB24
63 Mark Ingram II BAL (8) RB25
64 Raheem Mostert SF (11) RB26
65 David Montgomery CHI (11) RB27
66 Kareem Hunt CLE (9) RB28
67 Cam Akers LAR (9) RB29
68 Jarvis Landry CLE (9) WR28
69 A.J. Green CIN (9) WR29
70 Evan Engram NYG (11) TE6
71 Marquise Brown BAL (8) WR30
72 Tyler Boyd CIN (9) WR31
With De'Andre Swift and David Montgomery hurt, Evan Engram likely to get hurt, Jarvis Landry still recovering, these guys can't be analyzed the same way. Landry is an easy bargain if he's back even by Week 3. The same goes for the highly undervalued Montgomery if he's good for the opening weekend. Do you think Mostert will be the clear #1? If so, of course he looks like a buy. But Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon aren't going anywhere (at least while healthy). And with Joe Mixon ailing, Green's stock points upward (though age and recent injury history are obvious warning flags).
Since I have to pick only one bargain, it has to be Hunt. If I knew Landry would be good for 16 games, I might lean his way. The same goes for Green. But Hunt is too talented to be the 66th player off the board. I shared some research recently demonstrating his terrific goal-line conversion history. 50 receptions and double-digit TDs are realistic. I want him as a 200-touch RB2 with massive upside if Nick Chubb goes down. He doesn't have the stand-alone upside of some other guys on this list. But he's the most likely bargain in my opinion.
On the bust side, it has to be Swift. A week ago this would have been a tougher decision. But you're playing with fire drafting an injured rookie RB trying to supplant a starter in a pandemic-shortened training camp. The fact that he's still ranked ahead of someone like Hunt is insane.