We head into the fourth round of this summer's ADP bargain/bust discussions, using Fantasy Pros' ADPs. Whereas yesterday's players included several realistic RB1s and/or WR1s, the 37-48 ADP group--to no one's surprise--carries more risk:
37 Zach Ertz (TE-3)
38 Cooper Kupp (WR-15)
39 Melvin Gordon (RB-19)
40 David Johnson (RB-20)
41 A.J. Brown (WR-16)
42 Courtland Sutton (WR-17)
43 Mark Andrews (TE-4)
44 Calvin Ridley (WR-18)
45 James Conner (RB-21)
46 Robert Woods (WR-19)
47 Keenan Allen (WR-20)
48 Jonathan Taylor (RB-22)
In the bargain category, it's probably easy to find champions for most of these guys. If Jonathan Taylor can assert himself as the #1 over Marlon Mack, he should comfortably outperform expectations. Similarly, bellcow James Conner seems like a clear top-20 RB, but will he continue to dominate touches--or remain healthy after missing nine games the past two years? And of course, David Johnson should outdo his RB-20 ADP, though he carries a little more risk than my top bargain.
And that top bargain is Keenan Allen, one of my favorite top-50 ADP fantasy steals, period. His 47/20 ranking is based entirely on a presumed QB downgrade from Philip Rivers. Except Rivers wasn't very good last season, and Tyrod Taylor is better than advertised (and if Justin Herbert takes over, I don't see LA's primary receivers suffering). With Mike Williams a question mark for Week 1, Keenan and Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler should dominate targets. Remember, in his last three seasons Keenan has been the #6, #12, and #3 fantasy WR. Dropping him to 20 is a seemingly obvious oversight. Expect top 14-16 numbers at worst and top 4-6 at best. I'm eyeing 10+ targets a game and a nice bump on 2019's six-TD total.
The bust side seems less clear. But Melvin Gordon is the guy I'd avoid more than any other. I simply believe Phillip Lindsay is, at minimum, comparably talented. The big questions are who will get the goal-line looks, and who will be utilized more in the passing game. I just reviewed some numbers: Lindsay converted 5-of-8 scoring opportunities on carries inside the opposing 4-yard line. The year before he was 5-of-7. Barring a major regression, Lindsay should remain a key part of this offense. While Gordon's floor is around RB 28-30, I doubt he finishes as an RB2, so he's my most likely bust.
37 Zach Ertz (TE-3)
38 Cooper Kupp (WR-15)
39 Melvin Gordon (RB-19)
40 David Johnson (RB-20)
41 A.J. Brown (WR-16)
42 Courtland Sutton (WR-17)
43 Mark Andrews (TE-4)
44 Calvin Ridley (WR-18)
45 James Conner (RB-21)
46 Robert Woods (WR-19)
47 Keenan Allen (WR-20)
48 Jonathan Taylor (RB-22)
In the bargain category, it's probably easy to find champions for most of these guys. If Jonathan Taylor can assert himself as the #1 over Marlon Mack, he should comfortably outperform expectations. Similarly, bellcow James Conner seems like a clear top-20 RB, but will he continue to dominate touches--or remain healthy after missing nine games the past two years? And of course, David Johnson should outdo his RB-20 ADP, though he carries a little more risk than my top bargain.
And that top bargain is Keenan Allen, one of my favorite top-50 ADP fantasy steals, period. His 47/20 ranking is based entirely on a presumed QB downgrade from Philip Rivers. Except Rivers wasn't very good last season, and Tyrod Taylor is better than advertised (and if Justin Herbert takes over, I don't see LA's primary receivers suffering). With Mike Williams a question mark for Week 1, Keenan and Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler should dominate targets. Remember, in his last three seasons Keenan has been the #6, #12, and #3 fantasy WR. Dropping him to 20 is a seemingly obvious oversight. Expect top 14-16 numbers at worst and top 4-6 at best. I'm eyeing 10+ targets a game and a nice bump on 2019's six-TD total.
The bust side seems less clear. But Melvin Gordon is the guy I'd avoid more than any other. I simply believe Phillip Lindsay is, at minimum, comparably talented. The big questions are who will get the goal-line looks, and who will be utilized more in the passing game. I just reviewed some numbers: Lindsay converted 5-of-8 scoring opportunities on carries inside the opposing 4-yard line. The year before he was 5-of-7. Barring a major regression, Lindsay should remain a key part of this offense. While Gordon's floor is around RB 28-30, I doubt he finishes as an RB2, so he's my most likely bust.