Moving on to the top 25-36 ADP players, looking for the best bargain and bust in the group. To be clear, these are not the highest-upside and lowest-floor guys. It's also not "who would be the biggest bargain if they played to their potential," etc. This is about who's the guy you most want to draft in this grouping, because they're the most likely to exceed expectations--and the one you need to avoid because they're most likely to bust.
The 25-36 group is fascinating. Most are like 3-4 seeds in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament that are all capable of winning the title. Several were universal first-round picks last summer, and several others were seemingly reliable second rounders who--whether because of injuries to themselves or teammates (e.g. Big Ben), turned into huge disappointments:
25 Kenny Golladay
26 Mike Evans
27 Leonard Fournette
28 Todd Gurley
29 Allen Robinson
30 D.J. Moore
31 Odell Beckham, Jr.
32 JuJu Smith-Schuster
33 Amari Cooper
34 Chris Carson
35 Le'Veon Bell
36 Adam Thielen
I love this group fantasy-wise. In fact, if I could trade my second rounder for someone's third and fourth, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Most of these players have RB1/WR1 upside. I hate picking just one. I'm betting at least half exceed expectations. For example, Thielen was posting top-5 numbers last season before getting hurt, and with Stefon Diggs gone, he should continue to be a WR1 threat despite his WR2 projections. Golladay deserves all they hype surrounding him (and he was one of my top fantasy bargains last year). OBJ and JuJu should bounce back, while Carson's a steal (as long as Carlos Hyde and a midseason-returning Rashaad Penny don't cut into his workload, which is an important "if").
But my biggest bargain has to be Bell. Owning an insane RB-18 ADP, he has the potential to blow those expectations out of the water. I'm expecting 300+ touches and a truce with head coach Adam Gase--a win-win solution for two guys on the hot seat. Everything is falling into place for Bell to regain his former elite / near-elite reputation.
On the bust side, I pointed out earlier that Tom Brady will find it tough to feed Evans, Chris Godwin, and Gronk (and others), meaning I don't see how Tampa Bay fields two top-8 WRs (Evans being a WR-8). And Gurley is a risky RB-16. But whereas Gurley could comfortably post top-14 numbers if he can remain on the field, I don't think there's anything D.J. Moore can do to reach those levels. The arrival of Robby Anderson, the limited upside (in my opinion) of Teddy Bridgewater, and the development of Curtis Samuel make Moore an overreach. That's why Carolina's presumptive #1 receiver--owning an overly ambitious WR-10 ranking, is the most assured bust of the group.
The 25-36 group is fascinating. Most are like 3-4 seeds in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament that are all capable of winning the title. Several were universal first-round picks last summer, and several others were seemingly reliable second rounders who--whether because of injuries to themselves or teammates (e.g. Big Ben), turned into huge disappointments:
25 Kenny Golladay
26 Mike Evans
27 Leonard Fournette
28 Todd Gurley
29 Allen Robinson
30 D.J. Moore
31 Odell Beckham, Jr.
32 JuJu Smith-Schuster
33 Amari Cooper
34 Chris Carson
35 Le'Veon Bell
36 Adam Thielen
I love this group fantasy-wise. In fact, if I could trade my second rounder for someone's third and fourth, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Most of these players have RB1/WR1 upside. I hate picking just one. I'm betting at least half exceed expectations. For example, Thielen was posting top-5 numbers last season before getting hurt, and with Stefon Diggs gone, he should continue to be a WR1 threat despite his WR2 projections. Golladay deserves all they hype surrounding him (and he was one of my top fantasy bargains last year). OBJ and JuJu should bounce back, while Carson's a steal (as long as Carlos Hyde and a midseason-returning Rashaad Penny don't cut into his workload, which is an important "if").
But my biggest bargain has to be Bell. Owning an insane RB-18 ADP, he has the potential to blow those expectations out of the water. I'm expecting 300+ touches and a truce with head coach Adam Gase--a win-win solution for two guys on the hot seat. Everything is falling into place for Bell to regain his former elite / near-elite reputation.
On the bust side, I pointed out earlier that Tom Brady will find it tough to feed Evans, Chris Godwin, and Gronk (and others), meaning I don't see how Tampa Bay fields two top-8 WRs (Evans being a WR-8). And Gurley is a risky RB-16. But whereas Gurley could comfortably post top-14 numbers if he can remain on the field, I don't think there's anything D.J. Moore can do to reach those levels. The arrival of Robby Anderson, the limited upside (in my opinion) of Teddy Bridgewater, and the development of Curtis Samuel make Moore an overreach. That's why Carolina's presumptive #1 receiver--owning an overly ambitious WR-10 ranking, is the most assured bust of the group.