Yesterday I tried something new, examining the top 12 ADP players and recommending the top bargain and top bust candidate. To recap, I'm not saying Michael Thomas will be the #1 overall player this year. I am saying that given the risks and rewards of all 12 players, Thomas is the best bet at his #4 spot. His floor is arguably higher than anyone's, due partly to the fact that WRs generally are more durable than RBs. Plenty of guys could finish #1. But Thomas is the biggest lock for positional elite production.
Now let's look at 13-24 ADP:
13 Miles Sanders
14 Kenyan Drake
15 Nick Chubb
16 Austin Ekeler
17 Travis Kelce
18 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
19 Chris Godwin
20 Josh Jacobs
21 Aaron Jones
22 Lamar Jackson
23 George Kittle
24 Patrick Mahomes
There's so much to examine here, but let's hit the main points. Sanders is currently hurt, but is reportedly expected to return by Week 1. Still, that seems like a pretty steep price to pay. The same goes for Chubb; I wrote a week or two ago about his drop-off when Kareem Hunt returned midway through last season. And is good as Chris Godwin is, I can't see Tom Brady feeding two top-8 WRs (Godwin and Evans are 6 and 8, respectively). For my money, Chubb is the biggest bust risk. You don't want to burn an early second rounder on a guy who's sub-par in the passing game and at risk of falling into a timeshare with his supposed sub-counterpart. Without Hunt, Chubb is a top-6 RB. With Hunt, there's almost no way Chubb hits his RB-10 ADP, and he's a likely to offer no better than third-round numbers.
On the plus side, CEH is probably the trendiest bargain pick out there. Some of you love him in the first round. "Not so fast," I say. For me, the choice seems pretty clear: Jackson or Mahomes. If we're to believe both these QBs are elite talents, would you rather have a highly talented rookie RB, or possibly the top QB? The larger question is whether the sixth or seventh best RB gives you a greater advantage than an exceptionally elite QB. So if both guys play to their potential, wouldn't Jackson and Mahomes be better hands-down, since they'd be scoring about 8+ points more than opposing QBs every fantasy week?
While I'm generally a fan of waiting on a QB, I think Jackson is the top bargain in this group. Last year was no fluke, and his passing-game should improve. It is quite possible Jackson engineers another 400-point season, and his realistic floor (around 320) is arguably as high or higher than Mahomes'--or really any player. If I land Barkley or Thomas in round 1 and then Jackson in round 2--knowing guys like Leonard Fournette, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and David Montgomery are some of the many RB2+'s available in rounds 3-5, I'm content to kick off my draft with best-in-class options.
Now let's look at 13-24 ADP:
13 Miles Sanders
14 Kenyan Drake
15 Nick Chubb
16 Austin Ekeler
17 Travis Kelce
18 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
19 Chris Godwin
20 Josh Jacobs
21 Aaron Jones
22 Lamar Jackson
23 George Kittle
24 Patrick Mahomes
There's so much to examine here, but let's hit the main points. Sanders is currently hurt, but is reportedly expected to return by Week 1. Still, that seems like a pretty steep price to pay. The same goes for Chubb; I wrote a week or two ago about his drop-off when Kareem Hunt returned midway through last season. And is good as Chris Godwin is, I can't see Tom Brady feeding two top-8 WRs (Godwin and Evans are 6 and 8, respectively). For my money, Chubb is the biggest bust risk. You don't want to burn an early second rounder on a guy who's sub-par in the passing game and at risk of falling into a timeshare with his supposed sub-counterpart. Without Hunt, Chubb is a top-6 RB. With Hunt, there's almost no way Chubb hits his RB-10 ADP, and he's a likely to offer no better than third-round numbers.
On the plus side, CEH is probably the trendiest bargain pick out there. Some of you love him in the first round. "Not so fast," I say. For me, the choice seems pretty clear: Jackson or Mahomes. If we're to believe both these QBs are elite talents, would you rather have a highly talented rookie RB, or possibly the top QB? The larger question is whether the sixth or seventh best RB gives you a greater advantage than an exceptionally elite QB. So if both guys play to their potential, wouldn't Jackson and Mahomes be better hands-down, since they'd be scoring about 8+ points more than opposing QBs every fantasy week?
While I'm generally a fan of waiting on a QB, I think Jackson is the top bargain in this group. Last year was no fluke, and his passing-game should improve. It is quite possible Jackson engineers another 400-point season, and his realistic floor (around 320) is arguably as high or higher than Mahomes'--or really any player. If I land Barkley or Thomas in round 1 and then Jackson in round 2--knowing guys like Leonard Fournette, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and David Montgomery are some of the many RB2+'s available in rounds 3-5, I'm content to kick off my draft with best-in-class options.