Normally this would be the prime of preseason. No doubt, there would've been at least one or two serious injuries, leading about 10%-20% of us to question why our drafts don't take place two hours before the regular season's opening kickoff.
So these next few days I want to highlight the biggest bargain and bust of each draft round, based on ADP, assuming a 12-team league. Of course, this works best if you all tell me how wrong I am (or at least some of you), and that you know better. The best argument wins (for now).
According to Fantasy Pros' ADP composite, here are the current top 12:
1 Christian McCaffrey
2 Saquon Barkley
3 Ezekiel Elliott
4 Michael Thomas
5 Alvin Kamara
6 Dalvin Cook
7 Derrick Henry
8 Davante Adams
9 DeAndre Hopkins
10 Tyreek Hill
11 Julio Jones
12 Joe Mixon
The first round is always the hardest for me. These guys are all highly ranked because they're seemingly as safe as any player: uber-high upsides and very high floors. Candidly, I love Saquon Barkley this season; he's a freakishly exceptional athlete and proved to be a #1-caliber RB his rookie year. But with an overall-2 ADP, no one can call him a bargain. So I'm going Michael Thomas at 4. Even if he "regresses" to 2018 levels, there's no safer wideout, period. The Saints' receiving corps remains a huge question mark despite the addition of a post-prime Emmanuel Sanders. And Thomas's career 78% catch rate is so frighteningly good, his floor is arguably the highest of any wideout in history.
Is that last claim an exaggeration? Not a chance. Antonio Brown's caught 66% of all balls thrown his way. Julio Jones? 64%. Calvin Johnson? 56%. Even Jerry Rice was about 15% below Thomas's mark. I'll go so far as to say Thomas could make a claim to being the most dominant wideout in NFL history. When you're sizably better than any other receiver in history in one of the most important receiving categories, you're in your own league. And that, in part, is why I view Thomas as the best bargain in round 1.
In the bust category, obviously another tough call. How can I trash any of these guys? Still, as you might remember from a post earlier this month, I think DeAndre Hopkins is clearly overrated as the #3-ranked WR. And if you're taking him at his overall-9 ADP, you need at least semi-consistent elite numbers. I don't see it--not with Christian Kirk, and still-capable Larry Fitzgerald, and arguably a more competent running game than what he had in Houston. Hopkins is more of a mid-to-late second-round pick for me, making him the most overrated first rounder of the group.
So these next few days I want to highlight the biggest bargain and bust of each draft round, based on ADP, assuming a 12-team league. Of course, this works best if you all tell me how wrong I am (or at least some of you), and that you know better. The best argument wins (for now).
According to Fantasy Pros' ADP composite, here are the current top 12:
1 Christian McCaffrey
2 Saquon Barkley
3 Ezekiel Elliott
4 Michael Thomas
5 Alvin Kamara
6 Dalvin Cook
7 Derrick Henry
8 Davante Adams
9 DeAndre Hopkins
10 Tyreek Hill
11 Julio Jones
12 Joe Mixon
The first round is always the hardest for me. These guys are all highly ranked because they're seemingly as safe as any player: uber-high upsides and very high floors. Candidly, I love Saquon Barkley this season; he's a freakishly exceptional athlete and proved to be a #1-caliber RB his rookie year. But with an overall-2 ADP, no one can call him a bargain. So I'm going Michael Thomas at 4. Even if he "regresses" to 2018 levels, there's no safer wideout, period. The Saints' receiving corps remains a huge question mark despite the addition of a post-prime Emmanuel Sanders. And Thomas's career 78% catch rate is so frighteningly good, his floor is arguably the highest of any wideout in history.
Is that last claim an exaggeration? Not a chance. Antonio Brown's caught 66% of all balls thrown his way. Julio Jones? 64%. Calvin Johnson? 56%. Even Jerry Rice was about 15% below Thomas's mark. I'll go so far as to say Thomas could make a claim to being the most dominant wideout in NFL history. When you're sizably better than any other receiver in history in one of the most important receiving categories, you're in your own league. And that, in part, is why I view Thomas as the best bargain in round 1.
In the bust category, obviously another tough call. How can I trash any of these guys? Still, as you might remember from a post earlier this month, I think DeAndre Hopkins is clearly overrated as the #3-ranked WR. And if you're taking him at his overall-9 ADP, you need at least semi-consistent elite numbers. I don't see it--not with Christian Kirk, and still-capable Larry Fitzgerald, and arguably a more competent running game than what he had in Houston. Hopkins is more of a mid-to-late second-round pick for me, making him the most overrated first rounder of the group.