Let's keep talking football while we can. My question today is whether Tom Brady was smart to leave New England for Tampa Bay. We can answer it on a fantasy level (will he post Jameis Winston-like numbers or better), and we can answer it on a legacy level (will he build on an already nearly peerless legacy).
I wrote about him and the Bucs a few days ago, but my thoughts have remained pretty fresh since March. I wish he'd stuck with the Patriots. I wish the question "Was Belichick more responsible for Brady's success than Brady was for Belichick's success" remained largely unanswerable.
On a fantasy level, I don't see how Brady outperforms Winston. That sounds odd, I admit. Winston isn't starting this season for a reason. But in fantasy, Winston was usually very good to elite. His average air yards per throw was 2.9 more than Brady's. His average completed air yards per throw was 2.6. He also averaged less than one more pass per game, as Brady did considerably less despite a relatively high workload. You can blame it on New England's receivers, but I don't think that tells the whole story.
Brady's numbers have declined steadily the past few years. If he's truly better than Winston, one would think he'd be elite this year. He'd have to be, right? The best wideout tandem in football, plus the return of an all-time great tight end whose chemistry with Brady is unquestioned. So what's stopping him from comfortably exceeding Winston's 5,109/33 line?
That's where I'm stuck. Brady's QB ADP is 12. Last year he was 12th surrounded by less talent (and a better coach). While he should be better than Winston, I don't see how a 43-year-old Brady puts up the kind of games Winston did. And that's why I think Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are overrated at their top-10 ADPs.
Where do you think Brady will finish? And as a sports fan, should he have retired a Patriot?
I wrote about him and the Bucs a few days ago, but my thoughts have remained pretty fresh since March. I wish he'd stuck with the Patriots. I wish the question "Was Belichick more responsible for Brady's success than Brady was for Belichick's success" remained largely unanswerable.
On a fantasy level, I don't see how Brady outperforms Winston. That sounds odd, I admit. Winston isn't starting this season for a reason. But in fantasy, Winston was usually very good to elite. His average air yards per throw was 2.9 more than Brady's. His average completed air yards per throw was 2.6. He also averaged less than one more pass per game, as Brady did considerably less despite a relatively high workload. You can blame it on New England's receivers, but I don't think that tells the whole story.
Brady's numbers have declined steadily the past few years. If he's truly better than Winston, one would think he'd be elite this year. He'd have to be, right? The best wideout tandem in football, plus the return of an all-time great tight end whose chemistry with Brady is unquestioned. So what's stopping him from comfortably exceeding Winston's 5,109/33 line?
That's where I'm stuck. Brady's QB ADP is 12. Last year he was 12th surrounded by less talent (and a better coach). While he should be better than Winston, I don't see how a 43-year-old Brady puts up the kind of games Winston did. And that's why I think Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are overrated at their top-10 ADPs.
Where do you think Brady will finish? And as a sports fan, should he have retired a Patriot?