The third rail of family dinners is politics. The third rail of fantasy football is Todd Gurley. Or maybe not, but let's see where this goes.
Depending on how you look at it, Gurley was one laughable offensive line (2016) away from having one of the greatest first four seasons of any RB in history. While the Bucs and Titans "wasted" their #'s 1 and 2 picks in 2015 on franchise QBs now backing up franchise QBs on other teams, the Rams struck gold at #10 with a guy who--had he remained healthy in 2018 and early 2019--could have led his team to a title.
And that's the exclamation mark (half exclamation point, half question mark; let's trademark that) on Gurley. He is perhaps the "oldest" 26-year-old in the league. His 2019 campaign was forgettable by his lofty standards, and his health questions have mounted.
At the same time, his only competition in Atlanta is Ito Smith and Brian Hill. In other words, he's set for a high-volume bellcow role if he can handle it. And given their offensive prowess, the Falcons should get him plenty of goal-line looks. In his prime, Gurley might be the consensus #2 overall pick.
Instead, he has a nerve-racking RB-16 ADP. If he were a back-end RB2, I'd say go for it. If he were a back-end RB1, I'd caution against it. But 16 is tough. If he gives you 14 games at last year's production, that should cover it. If he plays 10 games at a high level, you can always snag Smith and Hill for nothing (in leagues with deep benches) and still probably come out on top.
But the reality is, no one knows what will happen. Even Atlanta doesn't know, and that's why he earned only a one-year contract. As I wrote last year, what's more likely: that his team will run him into the ground, or that his team will play it safe as long as they're strong playoff contenders, so they can have a relatively healthy Gurley for the playoffs--essentially, learn the lesson the 2018 Rams didn't, or couldn't?
If you're a gambler, Gurley could pay off like few others can. He's also one of the biggest bust risks in the top 20. Which way are you leaning?
Depending on how you look at it, Gurley was one laughable offensive line (2016) away from having one of the greatest first four seasons of any RB in history. While the Bucs and Titans "wasted" their #'s 1 and 2 picks in 2015 on franchise QBs now backing up franchise QBs on other teams, the Rams struck gold at #10 with a guy who--had he remained healthy in 2018 and early 2019--could have led his team to a title.
And that's the exclamation mark (half exclamation point, half question mark; let's trademark that) on Gurley. He is perhaps the "oldest" 26-year-old in the league. His 2019 campaign was forgettable by his lofty standards, and his health questions have mounted.
At the same time, his only competition in Atlanta is Ito Smith and Brian Hill. In other words, he's set for a high-volume bellcow role if he can handle it. And given their offensive prowess, the Falcons should get him plenty of goal-line looks. In his prime, Gurley might be the consensus #2 overall pick.
Instead, he has a nerve-racking RB-16 ADP. If he were a back-end RB2, I'd say go for it. If he were a back-end RB1, I'd caution against it. But 16 is tough. If he gives you 14 games at last year's production, that should cover it. If he plays 10 games at a high level, you can always snag Smith and Hill for nothing (in leagues with deep benches) and still probably come out on top.
But the reality is, no one knows what will happen. Even Atlanta doesn't know, and that's why he earned only a one-year contract. As I wrote last year, what's more likely: that his team will run him into the ground, or that his team will play it safe as long as they're strong playoff contenders, so they can have a relatively healthy Gurley for the playoffs--essentially, learn the lesson the 2018 Rams didn't, or couldn't?
If you're a gambler, Gurley could pay off like few others can. He's also one of the biggest bust risks in the top 20. Which way are you leaning?