I keep waiting for Nick Chubb's ADP to drop. When I wrote about the Browns four weeks ago, his RB ADP was 8. Today it's 9. Here was my warning July 17:
"When [Kareem] Hunt was suspended, Chubb averaged 18.9 points per game. When Hunt returned to the field, Chubb's numbers dropped to 13/game. While I want to believe Chubb deserves his pretty universal RB1 standing, I'm very concerned Hunt will continue to net roughly 10 touches per game--including a greater share of the passing attack--leaving Chubb more TD-dependent than a reliable RB1 should be. The talent is there, no question. But if he gets only 13-15 touches per game, he'll be a significant risk at that price."
Nearly a month later, nothing has changed--at least from my perspective. Joe Mixon averaged 14 points per game in 2019 and finished 20th. Chubb would need to be comfortably better this year with Hunt on the field: possible, but more risk than I'd want to take on.
Now, in fairness, I looked up how many rushes Chubb had inside the opposing 5-yard line. He had five before Hunt's return and a whopping 11 after Hunt was back. So doesn't this count for something? Well, he converted on only one of those 11 later attempts, and in fact was exceptionally poor from the 1-yard line all season (0-for-10). Maybe that's an area for improvement, and if so, Chubb could be in for a 12+ touchdown year.
But it should be mentioned that Hunt was 5-for-7 converting rushes inside the opposing 5 in 2017, and then 6-for-10 in 2018. True, that was a different offense (Kansas City). Yet it's hard to argue that Chubb is Cleveland's best goal-line option.
And that, in part, has me clamoring for Hunt at his RB-29 ADP. He finished 26th last year in only eight games--half a season!--and yet somehow the fantasy universe believes he'll do worse with double the opportunities? It just doesn't make sense. Hunt is arguably just as talented as Chubb, and is only a "backup" in theory.
Buy Hunt. Pass on Chubb. Their ADPs should be closer to around 15/20, respectively, and don't be surprised if Hunt's more productive in the end.
"When [Kareem] Hunt was suspended, Chubb averaged 18.9 points per game. When Hunt returned to the field, Chubb's numbers dropped to 13/game. While I want to believe Chubb deserves his pretty universal RB1 standing, I'm very concerned Hunt will continue to net roughly 10 touches per game--including a greater share of the passing attack--leaving Chubb more TD-dependent than a reliable RB1 should be. The talent is there, no question. But if he gets only 13-15 touches per game, he'll be a significant risk at that price."
Nearly a month later, nothing has changed--at least from my perspective. Joe Mixon averaged 14 points per game in 2019 and finished 20th. Chubb would need to be comfortably better this year with Hunt on the field: possible, but more risk than I'd want to take on.
Now, in fairness, I looked up how many rushes Chubb had inside the opposing 5-yard line. He had five before Hunt's return and a whopping 11 after Hunt was back. So doesn't this count for something? Well, he converted on only one of those 11 later attempts, and in fact was exceptionally poor from the 1-yard line all season (0-for-10). Maybe that's an area for improvement, and if so, Chubb could be in for a 12+ touchdown year.
But it should be mentioned that Hunt was 5-for-7 converting rushes inside the opposing 5 in 2017, and then 6-for-10 in 2018. True, that was a different offense (Kansas City). Yet it's hard to argue that Chubb is Cleveland's best goal-line option.
And that, in part, has me clamoring for Hunt at his RB-29 ADP. He finished 26th last year in only eight games--half a season!--and yet somehow the fantasy universe believes he'll do worse with double the opportunities? It just doesn't make sense. Hunt is arguably just as talented as Chubb, and is only a "backup" in theory.
Buy Hunt. Pass on Chubb. Their ADPs should be closer to around 15/20, respectively, and don't be surprised if Hunt's more productive in the end.