One reader question yesterday was about draft order. He can pick wherever he wants after winning last year's title (I like that rule, but the way). So does he go 1/CMC, or does he drift backward to improve his second-round positioning?
Well of course you take CMC, right? I mean, what's the issue?
Many of us have probably been burned by #1 overall picks. But each season is different, and every player valuation is different. If you believe CMC has the best shot at being the #1 RB, then he's the easy choice. But if you swing and miss, it's obviously harder to recover, as your next best players are (at least to start the season) presumably the 24th and 25th picks. Last year if you'd picked 12th/13th, you probably could have landed Dalvin Cook and Julio Jones. If you'd gone 1/24 and followed ADP, you'd be looking at Saquon Barkley and probably no one better than Cook or Julio.
Everything is about playing the percentages. This year CMC is a universal #1. But there's value to be had in every round. So I'm not so much interested in where I'm picking in the first; I'm interested in pouncing on value.
For example, based on Fantasy Pros' ADP composite, Patrick Mahomes and Kenny Golladay are at 24/25, respectively overall. Coming back down in rounds 4 and 5 are ADP 46-52 options Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Devin Singletary, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and D.J. Chark. Even if your draft is more WR heavy in the earlier rounds, there are still several solid RB starters (like David Montgomery and sitting in the 60s and 70s. Then in rounds 6 and 7 you can find talent like Marquise Brown (72), Michael Gallup (74), Ronald Jones (75), and Will Fuller (78). Or if earlier Mahomes was gone and you "settled" for Mike Evans or OBJ, you could probably find a near-elite QB in round 6 or 7.
The point is, whether you pick 1 or 12 or somewhere in between, don't get hung up on your early-round guys. Either they'll produce, or they won't. Most season, half of all first-round picks are relative busts.
The bigger challenge lies in rounds 3-to-the-end. And you don't need "perfect" draft positioning to capitalize on those later picks.
Well of course you take CMC, right? I mean, what's the issue?
Many of us have probably been burned by #1 overall picks. But each season is different, and every player valuation is different. If you believe CMC has the best shot at being the #1 RB, then he's the easy choice. But if you swing and miss, it's obviously harder to recover, as your next best players are (at least to start the season) presumably the 24th and 25th picks. Last year if you'd picked 12th/13th, you probably could have landed Dalvin Cook and Julio Jones. If you'd gone 1/24 and followed ADP, you'd be looking at Saquon Barkley and probably no one better than Cook or Julio.
Everything is about playing the percentages. This year CMC is a universal #1. But there's value to be had in every round. So I'm not so much interested in where I'm picking in the first; I'm interested in pouncing on value.
For example, based on Fantasy Pros' ADP composite, Patrick Mahomes and Kenny Golladay are at 24/25, respectively overall. Coming back down in rounds 4 and 5 are ADP 46-52 options Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Devin Singletary, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and D.J. Chark. Even if your draft is more WR heavy in the earlier rounds, there are still several solid RB starters (like David Montgomery and sitting in the 60s and 70s. Then in rounds 6 and 7 you can find talent like Marquise Brown (72), Michael Gallup (74), Ronald Jones (75), and Will Fuller (78). Or if earlier Mahomes was gone and you "settled" for Mike Evans or OBJ, you could probably find a near-elite QB in round 6 or 7.
The point is, whether you pick 1 or 12 or somewhere in between, don't get hung up on your early-round guys. Either they'll produce, or they won't. Most season, half of all first-round picks are relative busts.
The bigger challenge lies in rounds 3-to-the-end. And you don't need "perfect" draft positioning to capitalize on those later picks.