Last year was last year. We gotta stop underestimating talent because they let us down. Ability + Opportunity + Health usually equals Bargain. That's absolutely true with my two favorite Bears.
First, David Montgomery entered last preseason with more hype than most RBs up and down the slate. His RB-24 ADP didn't do him justice--allegedly. I wrote last July that his hype wasn't deserved, and that those who reached for the rookie would be disappointed. Well, he finished #24 last year, and on a per-game basis he was noticeably worse. He didn't crack the top 16 in any week until Week 8, and he landed in the top 25 only five times. Simply put, most weeks Montgomery was unstartable.
This summer his RB ADP is 25. That's right: his stock has dropped not only since last summer, but also since January. The fantasy universe, on balance, believes he's be marginally worse this season. I'm not buying it. As I brought up last month, he averaged a pitiful 5.9 carries in the first half. There is no conceivable way head coach Matt Nagy will continue to underutilize his team's #2 weapon. Naysayers argue Tarik Cohen will continue to limit Montgomery's upside, and that's certainly true. But that assumes Montgomery's ceiling is as an RB3. He was solid pass-catcher in college (room to grow, despite Cohen's presence), is exceptionally elusive despite his middling speed (one broken tackle every 8.6 rushes last season--fifth best among starting RBs), and dealt with a lacking o-line (averaging only two ground yards before contact). To me, Montgomery is an obvious top-20 investment with realistic top-14 upside.
Chicago's potential #2 receiver should be breakout candidate Anthony Miller. Why should we trust this repeat underperformer? Isn't Riley Ridley a receiver to watch? Won't Ted Ginn on a relatively weak passing team? Won't Ted Ginn be in the mix? Won't Jimmy Graham offer more stability than last season's Trey Burton-led disaster?
Let's break things down: Miller was last year's 56th best WR despite getting eased into the season due to an offseason injury. In his first four games he hauled in four passes on only eight targets for a pathetic 28 yards. In Week 17 he got knocked out after only one catch. By my count, that's a 47/623/2 line in 11 (seemingly) healthy games, which would project out to a full-season 68/906/3 line--in other words, right around where Larry Fitzgerald (35th) finished. Miller's current WR-52 ADP assumes a per-healthy-game regression. I don't see it. Miller should be the Bears' #2 receiver and is a near-lock to build on last year's numbers.
First, David Montgomery entered last preseason with more hype than most RBs up and down the slate. His RB-24 ADP didn't do him justice--allegedly. I wrote last July that his hype wasn't deserved, and that those who reached for the rookie would be disappointed. Well, he finished #24 last year, and on a per-game basis he was noticeably worse. He didn't crack the top 16 in any week until Week 8, and he landed in the top 25 only five times. Simply put, most weeks Montgomery was unstartable.
This summer his RB ADP is 25. That's right: his stock has dropped not only since last summer, but also since January. The fantasy universe, on balance, believes he's be marginally worse this season. I'm not buying it. As I brought up last month, he averaged a pitiful 5.9 carries in the first half. There is no conceivable way head coach Matt Nagy will continue to underutilize his team's #2 weapon. Naysayers argue Tarik Cohen will continue to limit Montgomery's upside, and that's certainly true. But that assumes Montgomery's ceiling is as an RB3. He was solid pass-catcher in college (room to grow, despite Cohen's presence), is exceptionally elusive despite his middling speed (one broken tackle every 8.6 rushes last season--fifth best among starting RBs), and dealt with a lacking o-line (averaging only two ground yards before contact). To me, Montgomery is an obvious top-20 investment with realistic top-14 upside.
Chicago's potential #2 receiver should be breakout candidate Anthony Miller. Why should we trust this repeat underperformer? Isn't Riley Ridley a receiver to watch? Won't Ted Ginn on a relatively weak passing team? Won't Ted Ginn be in the mix? Won't Jimmy Graham offer more stability than last season's Trey Burton-led disaster?
Let's break things down: Miller was last year's 56th best WR despite getting eased into the season due to an offseason injury. In his first four games he hauled in four passes on only eight targets for a pathetic 28 yards. In Week 17 he got knocked out after only one catch. By my count, that's a 47/623/2 line in 11 (seemingly) healthy games, which would project out to a full-season 68/906/3 line--in other words, right around where Larry Fitzgerald (35th) finished. Miller's current WR-52 ADP assumes a per-healthy-game regression. I don't see it. Miller should be the Bears' #2 receiver and is a near-lock to build on last year's numbers.