Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Drew Lock take a step forward?
2. Is Melvin Gordon the bellcow?
3. Can Phillip Lindsay be a weekly fantasy contributor?
4. Can Jerry Jeudy challenge Courtland Sutton for the #1 job?
5. Is Noah Fant a TE1?
Denver went 50-14 during the regular seasons from 2012 to 2015, culminating in their third Super Bowl. In their last four seasons they're 27-37. To take any kind of step forward, at least two high-profile gambles need to pay off. First, 2019 second rounder Drew Lock needs to stake a step forward. Spot starter Jeff Driskel was added this offseason to offer some semblance of support. But the reality is that if Lock flops, GM John Elway will have to go back to the drawing board. In the post-Peyton Manning era, the Broncos have trotted out Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, and Brandon Allen. From a fantasy perspective, these guys were largely joyless. It is insane to me that Lock (QB-23) is ranked better than Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Gardner Minchew, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Lock's ceiling is around 20th, and his floor is "benched by Week 6."
The other big gamble was handing Melvin Gordon $13.5 million guaranteed to supplant a backfield tandem that's only a year removed from netting nearly five yards per carry and 15 touchdowns. And last year the better half of that tandem--Phillip Lindsay--proved that he could thrive in a near-bellcow role. The best analogy my somewhat foggy brain can think of right now (it's past midnight) is that Denver had a fantastic umbrella in a rainstorm, and then went and bought another one. Gordon is both talented and overrated. He's topped 3.9 YPC in only one of five NFL seasons. He's moving from a team that (until last year) had a terrific QB with fantastic aerial weapons, to a team with a sub-par QB who will find it more difficult to keep defenses honest. While Gordon's RB-17 ADP isn't egregious, it does suggest he'll be the main back all year. Meanwhile, Phillip Lindsay is sitting at RB-40. I don't trust Gordon dominating touches. Lindsay isn't going anywhere. Gimme Lindsay around the RB-32 mark, and I'll consider it a solid investment. Meanwhile, the fading Royce Freeman (RB-82) is barely hanging on to the #3 spot--a pretty quick drop for the hyped 2018 third rounder.
It's hard for me to get excited about Courtland Sutton (WR-18). Injuries and bad quarterbacking propelled the second-year wideout into prominence, as he posted a 72/1,112/6. His 124 targets nearly doubled the next most targeted Bronco (TE Noah Fant). Assuming rookies Jerry Jeudy and/or K.J. Hamler hold their own, there will be more capable mouths to feed than last year. I'd rather snag Jeudy at his WR-38 ADP than be misled by Sutton's breakout 2019. DaeSean Hamilton (WR-95) and Tim Patrick (WR-118) could play spoiler for Hamler (WR-114), at least early on. All told Jeudy offers the clearest path to value.
Finally, Noah Fant earned his first-round status with a better-than-expected rookie campaign. Still, I'm not buying his TE-10 ADP. The additions of Gordon and Jeudy will drop Fant from Lock's #2 target to #4 or #5 at best. This isn't a strong enough aerial attack to rationalize paying a TE1 price for a weekly semi-boom / bust option.