Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Kyler Murray be a near-elite QB?
2. Is Kenyan Drake an RB1?
3. Will DeAndre Hopkins remain an elite WR?
4. Is Christian Kirk a top-35 WR?
5. Can Larry Fitzgerald be fantasy relevant?
I didn't believe in Kyler Murray last preseason, and it obviously came back to bite me. Through his first eight games, the rookie looked solid, collecting nearly 2,000 passing yard and 279 rushing yards. Yet his nine touchdowns were concerning, and I thought my prediction might be right. But the arrival of Kenyan Drake shifted this offense into another gear, and the touchdowns started coming more regularly on the ground and through the air. So is Murray worth his QB-4 ADP? He's got some of the best weapons in the league, and he clearly has the talent to be an exceptional quarterback. I suppose my only hesitation is that there are so many talented QBs in the top 6-16. Do you want to reach early for Murray, or would you rather take Daniel Jones (QB-15) or Cam Newton (QB-26) and use that early pick on a potential weekly RB or WR fantasy starter? I'm torn. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.
I've been pushing Kenyan Drake for years. The Dolphins have been notorious for mishandling their talented backs. When Arizona traded for him last October, I warned that managers no longer could rely on David Johnson or Chase Edmonds. At minimum, this would become a three-headed backfield. At most, Drake could seize control. After busting out, he enters this preseason as a low-end RB1 (RB-11 ADP). The only major knock on Drake is his lack of bellcow experience: he never exceeded 92 carries in a college season, and last year he had a career-high 170 carries. To produce at an RB1 level, he'll probably need at least 250 touches--doable, but let's see how he handles 15 touches per game week after week. Capable backup Chase Edmonds (RB-54) will be a top fantasy handcuff for the third straight summer.
Nothing can be said about the DeAndre Hopkins trade that hasn't already. The Cards essentially swapped a second rounder and a "backup" RB for a top-3 NFL receiver in his prime. Of course, we know David Johnson could regain his footing in Houston (though I have my doubts). But Hopkins (WR-3) changes the entire complexion of a passing game that might have once again leaned heavily on the soon-to-be 37-year-old Larry Fitzgerald. However, from a fantasy perspective, I don't like what this does to Hopkins' value. He's racked up 150+ targets in each of his past five seasons. In recent years, his major competition for WR targets has been the occasionally healthy Will Fuller and the even less healthy Keke Coutee. While Kenny Stills provided a boost in 2019, he'd be the #4 option on Hopkins's new team. In other words, expect Hopkins to compete a bit more for targets, lowering his ceiling and making him overvalued at his ADP.
Elsewhere at wideout, snag Christian Kirk (WR-41) as a near-automatic top-35 WR with top-25 upside if Murray continues developing. Fitz (WR-64) is a slight bargain with a fairly hard WR4/5 ceiling. And Andy Isabella (WR-107) and Hakeem Butler (WR-351) probably will compete for #4 duties, making the winner a decent final-round Best Ball dart throws in case a starter goes down.
The last time we saw TE Dan Arnold, he posted a 4-76-1 line last Week 17. The starting job appears to be his to lose, though his team-leading TE-43 ADP suggests his hold is tenuous at best. Let's face it: if you draft Arnold, you're hoping for three TD-dependent TE1 performances this year. If Maxx Williams or even Darrell Daniels overtakes him, it wouldn't be shocking.