Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Gardner Minshew build off his breakout rookie campaign?
2. Is Leonard Fournette a reliable RB2+?
3. Will D.J. Chark be a WR2+?
4. Who will be the Jags' second-best fantasy receiver?
5. Is Tyler Eifert draftable?
If you drafted Gardner Minshew in Best Ball last season, you're one of the savviest Best Ball drafters in history. What should have been a painfully bad season with Nick Foles at the helm turned into a far more exciting campaign with sixth-rounder Minshew. The rookie was #1 in QB rating on deep balls and showed enough running skills to make him a near lock to outdo his QB-28 ADP. Whatever adjustments defenses make heading into his sophomore season, Minshew is a decent bet for 4,000+ total yards and 25+ scores.
By the end of 2018, Leonard Fournette didn't look like a long-term option in Jacksonville. By the end of 2019, he looked like the real deal. The much-hyped #4 overall pick in the 2017 draft racked up 1,674 yards, while his 76 receptions seemed to come out of nowhere (he had 58 in his first 21 NFL games). The arrival of 29-year-old Chris Thompson should cut into Fournette's receiving numbers. But I'm comfortable drafting him at his RB-16 ADP. Keep in mind the Jags didn't pick up his fifth-year option, so Fournette will be playing for a new contract, likely somewhere else. Jacksonville will run him into the ground if necessary. Ryquell Armstead (RB-63) is the likely handcuff, though Thompson could cap Armstead's upside if Fournette gets hurt, as there's not enough tape to show that Armstead's ready to be a viable NFL bellcow if called on.
In the seven seasons from 2013 to 2019, Jacksonville has had six different leading receivers (in terms of yards). Last year was D.J. Chark's turn. The bottom-barrel preseason option was fantasy gold out of the gate. I like him at his WR-23 ADP, which doesn't give him credit as his team's unquestioned #1 wideout. The rest of the corps is hard to figure out this early. Chris Conley (WR-114) finally came through in 2019, though it's important to note that Chark was out Week 15 and potentially less than 100% in Week 16; in those two weeks, Conley racked up 22% of his 2019 fantasy points. He is both undervalued and barely draftable. Meanwhile, Dede Westbrook (WR-70) has more downside and upside than Conley; although Conley could start the year as the #4 wideout, we'll probably know how this will shake out by Week 2. The wild card is second-round rookie Laviska Shenault (WR-77), who might be a better dynasty hold this year--though if the Jags struggle, with three notable WR contracts expiring (Conley's, Westbrook's, and Keelan Cole's), I wouldn't be surprised if head coach Doug Marrone gives Shenault more run by season's end. Finally, the once-promising Cole (WR-168) and rookie Collin Johnson (WR-327) offer solid-upside receiver depth.
At TE, Tyler Eifert followed up his breakout 52/615/13 season with a modest-but-respectable 43/436/3 effort. The problem is that these two seasons were four years apart. Eifert is probably the NFL's second-best tight end who rarely plays (Jordan Reed is #1). Going on 30, he offers top-20 appeal despite an atrocious TE-47 ADP. But in a run-friendly offense that boasts 4-6 capable wideouts, I doubt Eifert can muster more than three catches a game. He'll need 8+ scores to be fantasy-relevant.