Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Teddy Bridgewater a bottom-10 QB?
2. Will Christian McCaffrey's huge 2019 workload have any impact?
3. Is D.J. Moore a WR1?
4. Will Robby Anderson be a top-40 WR?
5. Is Ian Thomas draftable?
A few days ago this column began "Cam Newton's injury-plagued collapse is sad for the NFL," followed by a brief rundown of his greatness, and how the newly signed Teddy Bridgewater hopes to pick up where near-elite Cam left off. But then the Patriots signed Cam, and now we need to wonder: Did the Panthers make a huge mistake? Should they have re-signed their former franchise QB to a "prove-it" one-year deal? Instead, they handed the lower-upside Teddy Bridgewater $40 million guaranteed, despite the fact he's thrown only 221 passes in the past four seasons. Granted, Bridgewater looked solid as a replacement starter last year in New Orleans. But that's a nice payday for a guy whose greatest claim is throwing to Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Still, Bridgewater landed in a great spot with an elite pass-catching RB and several playmaking receivers. His QB-27 ADP suggests he'll flop. Barring another injury, he'll comfortably outperform expectations.
I was wrong about CMC multiple times last year. "Beware his workload," I shouted. "His record-breaking pace is unsustainable!" I couldn't have been more wrong. Few players have dominated a team's offense more than CMC. In Adrian Peterson's historic 2012 campaign, he accounted for 42% of the Vikings' offensive yards. Last year CMC accounted for 40% of his team's, which shows just how unusual his output was. No one would dare rank him outside the #1 RB spot. My only (quiet) warning is that most normal players with his workload--403 touches--face significant performance drops the following season. I documented this in a detailed graph last season. The numbers don't lie--though there are outliers, and we'll see if CMC is one of them. And just in case, handcuff Reggie Bonnafon (RB-102 ADP) at the end of your draft.
Carolina has been building up its receiving corps in recent years. For now, D.J. Moore (WR-9) is the biggest overpayment risk. No doubt he's a great wideout, and no doubt he'll disappoint every fantasy manager expecting WR1 production. I think he'll be lucky to finish in the top 16, and you can take that to the bank. New addition Robby Anderson (WR-57) is a likely bargain, and it should surprise no one if he outperforms Moore some weeks. And Curtis Samuel (WR-65) is unlikely to notch more than a small handful of fantasy-relevant performances. He seems to be the clear #3 guy.
As some of you might recall, I've been high on Ian Thomas for two years. His TE-24 ADP reflects not his talent, but his past stats. Ignore the past stats, which are muted because of Greg Olsen's starting role. As a spot starter, Thomas looked NFL-starter ready. He'll be a top-18 option and has a decent shot at breaking through, particularly if Moore or Anderson go down.