Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick hold off Tua Tagovailoa?
2. Does Jordan Howard have a clear edge over Matt Breida?
3. Will DeVante Parker remain a weekly starter?
4. Can Preston Williams be a WR3+
5. Is Mike Gesicki draftable?
Miami had sub-.500 seasons only twice from 1970 to 2003. In the 16 years since, they've had 11 sub-.500 seasons. And it's not like they're benefiting from all this poor play, usually performing just well enough to miss out on a franchise-altering draft pick. But if their offseason acquisitions and 2020 draft are any indication, the Dolphins are on the upswing.
At QB, the short-lived Josh Rosen experiment went as expected in 2019, and Ryan Fitzpatrick did what Ryan Fitzpatrick does best, leading a team that management had given up on to a far better record than anyone could have expected, culminating in one of the most shocking upsets in memory. He was essentially Ricky Vaughn in "Major League," if Vaughn had started nearly every game. Fitz inherited a league-worst offensive line, a league-worst backfield (once Kenyan Drake was gone), and a receiving corps of castoffs and perennial underperformers. He also led the team in rushing and endured the fifth most dropped passes. Think about that. #5 overall pick Tua Tagovailoa (QB-28 ADP) might be the future, but Fitz (QB-32) still has time to add to his career-long redemption story--one that started as a seventh-round pick, and which eight teams later has him knocking on the door of the top 30 in NFL passing yards and passing TDs. Fitz should be a consistent top-20 option as long as he's on the field, and an occasional top-8 producer.
After being painfully un-serious about its backfield for years (under-utilizing Kenyan Drake, for example), Miami finally got serious again, bringing in a pair of proven 25-year-olds, either of whom could handle 15+ touches a game if needed. Jordan Howard (RB-34) is slightly favored over Matt Breida (RB-42). One concern is that both guys are moving to a team with a significantly inferior o-line. But it's easy to see how one of them could outperform expectations. I'm currently leaning toward Howard and his higher TD potential.
Last summer on this page I called DeVante Parker "one of fantasy's most egregiously undervalued receivers" at his WR-65 ADP. While he was helped by Preston Williams' season-ending injury at the midway point, Parker was already sitting on a respectable 28/400/4 line. Then he went nuts--and let's face it, Fitz couldn't have done half of what he did without Parker. But now it's a new season, and Williams is expected back for Week 1. And I'm scratching my head wondering why Williams' WR ADP is all the way down at #55 (and dropping), while Parker's is 25. Shouldn't there be more parity? I get that Williams will begin the season 10 months removed from an ACL tear. But are fantasy managers forgetting Williams outplayed Parker before going down, and it wasn't a fluke? If this offense is humming, Williams will be top-40 and has a good shot at overtaking Parker. I'd fade the veteran and lunge for Williams at around 40-45. Meanwhile, Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant and every other non-top-2 option can remain undrafted in nearly every league.
Finally, Mike Gesicki took a huge leap forward in year 2, thanks in large part to Williams' injury, after which Gesicki earned steadier looks and scored all five of his touchdowns. He's reasonably priced at his TE-15 ADP, and his ceiling is lower than most top-18 options.