Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Jimmy Garappolo a top-16 QB?
2. Will Raheem Mostert be a top-24 RB?
3. Will Tevin Coleman or Jerick McKinnon be fantasy relevant?
4. Can Deebo Samuel be the clear #1 when healthy?
5. Is Brandon Aiyuk a must-draft WR?
It's unusual for a team to be as bad as the Niners were in the four seasons before last year's Super Bowl appearance. 17-47 from 2015 to 2018. A bunch of largely unproven wideouts in their early 20's. A largely unproven quarterback returning from a serious injury. Yes, the running game was expected to be an anchor of the offense, and an underrated and improved defense was supposed to keep them competitive. But almost no one expected Jimmy Garoppolo to be anything more than competent. His consensus QB-21 ADP was, in my view, a severe oversight. In fact, I'm not aware of anyone else who ranked him better than Baker Mayfield. More than a few of you pushed back and, quite possibly, left this page for good. But it worked out as expected, Jimmy G. outperforming Mayfield and a majority of starting QBs to finish 14th overall. This summer, he's once again getting no respect: QB-20. Another year removed from surgery, Jimmy G. remains a comfortable top-16 option with strong low-end QB1 potential.
One of the biggest backfield wildcards is Jerick McKinnon. Yes, that Jerick McKinnon--once Adrian Peterson's seeming heir-apparent, and now one of the biggest underdogs in fantasy. Last year's completely undrafted Raheem Mostert has earned top honors with an RB-29 ADP. Keep in mind he had only 136 carries in college, and he's sharing space with two talented RBs. Mostert is a bit of a trap play, as his passing-game usage should be minimal, and his one-touchdown-per-15-touches will be tough to replicate. Tevin Coleman (RB-41) and McKinnon (RB-61) should earn touches, with McKinnon offering the most value if he can carve out a Duke Johnson-like role. It all comes down to McKinnon's health.
A broken foot has turned Deebo Samuel from an automatic every-league draft pick to a "hold your breath and hope" WR3/4. His WR-31 ADP should work out nicely once he's healthy. But for now, a broken foot could keep him out to start the season. And the longer it takes for him to return, the more time first-round rookie Brandon Aiyuk will have to gel with Jimmy G. and the offense. Aiyuk (WR-63) is a fairly obvious bargain who should crack the top 50 before Week 1, with plenty of room to pop depending on Deebo's status. If both of these guys are on the field, tertiary targets like Jalen Hurd (WR-87), Kendrick Bourne (WR-98), and Trent Taylor (WR-372) won't get enough targets to be consistently relevant, though Taylor is clearly a mysterious afterthought, as the #3 job remains up in the air.
I thought George Kittle couldn't possibly match 2018's breakout, as he was targeted on 26% of all passes, and was returning to a much-improved receiving corps. But with Deebo questionable and Aiyuk in rookie mode, Kittle is in a prime position for a career year. I think he (TE-2) and Travis Kelce (TE-1) are in a class by themselves--not unlike Gronk and Jimmy Graham during their overlapping heydays. I'm projecting Kittle at 95/1,200/8.