Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Ryan Tannehill be a top-14 QB?
2. Is Derrick Henry a near-automatic top-6 RB?
3. Will A.J. Brown be a top-20 WR?
4. Will Corey Davis outperform Adam Humphries, and will it matter?
5. Is Jonnu Smith draftable?
The Dolphin franchise has been a pretty sad one in recent decades, marred by seemingly endless cycles of "rebuilding" and wasted draft picks. Ryan Tannehill seemed to be one of those wasted picks: a former #8 overall selection who rarely rose above "competent." Then he did what most great Dolphins do: he left, and then nearly helped lead his new team to the Super Bowl. Of course, Derrick Henry deserves the lion's share of offensive credit. But Tannehill showed enough (including the 10th most QB fantasy points per game) to jettison former "franchise" quarterback Marcus Mariota and hand their new savior $62 million guaranteed. So on the one hand, Tannehill's QB-17 ADP seems misplaced. Doesn't he deserve at least a top-14 ranking? Well, his numbers are a bit misleading. He was at home in six of his first nine games, and then played in Houston against the Texans' backups in Week 17. His three other road games were against sub-par defenses. Expect a regression in 2020 for a guy with one of the lowest ceilings of any top-24 QB.
I get why Tannehill received more than double the guaranteed money that Derrick Henry will get. This is a QB-friendly league. RBs get run into the ground, and many are disposed of within 5-6 years. Henry was simply incredible last year, and all signs point to a repeat performance, or at least something close. His RB-6 ADP seems about right, as his limitations in the passing game needs to be offset by another massive TD total (he has 30 in the past two seasons). Rookie Darrynton Evans (RB-58) should be a better version of Dion Lewis. Assuming Evans gets acclimated quickly, he has a clear path to top-50 production.
It didn't take long A.J. Brown to leapfrog Corey Davis and give Tennessee its first 1,000-yard wideout since 2013's Kendall Wright. I'd like to see more volume from a guy with a WR-16 ADP. Outside of a 13-target outburst Week 15, Brown averaged less than five looks per contest. I'm cool on Brown. Meanwhile, Davis (WR-73) can't be that bad, can he? He's playing for a new contract after the Titans declined his fifth-year team option. Between him and Adam Humphries (WR-127), one should crack the top 60. Right now I'm neutral, making Humphries the better Best Ball investment.
I'm thrilled Jonnu Smith is finally getting his shot. Long one of my favorite "he should be starting" tight ends, Smith is in a fantastic position to outperform his TE-17 ranking. Because the offense runs through Henry and Brown, and because I'm not sold on Tannehill, 45/550/4 seems realistic for Jonnu. In other words, he'll be no worse than a top 14-15 option with room to pop into the top 10 if utilized more near the goal line.