Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Matthew Stafford be a top-10 QB?
2. Will D'Andre Swift be an RB2+?
3. Can Kerryon Johnson be fantasy relevant?
4. Is Marvin Jones a WR4+?
5. Can T.J. Hockenson be a TE1?
Probably my biggest prediction last summer was promising Matthew Stafford would crush his outrageous QB-25 preseason ADP. After posting QB1 numbers in 2015, 2016, and 2017, he regressed to 20th overall in 2018 after losing one of the most trusted receivers of his career (Golden Tate) mid-season, while losing another (Marvin Jones) for a good chunk of the season with a knee injury. Until he got hurt last year, Stafford was near-elite QB. He finished the year #4 in QB fantasy points per game. But because his "actual" 2019 ranking was 29th, people once again are overlooking him. Barring another injury, Stafford at worst is priced right at his QB-13 ADP, and at best he'll comfortably exceed expectations.
Kerryon Johnson has been a trendy breakout candidate each of his first two seasons. While looking the part his injury-shortened rookie campaign, the former Auburn bellcow simply couldn't stay on the field, and his 2019 regression didn't help. Enter early-second-round rookie D'Andre Swift to mess with fantasy managers' minds all summer. Swift (RB-24 ADP) is currently fielding more love than Johnson (RB-39), but that could change throughout August and into the regular season. For now, neither guy is a reliable weekly starter; it would take an injury to one or dominant separation from the other to change things. That could happen, but I'm not reaching for either.
Last summer Kenny Golladay was another "What are people thinking?" preseason bargain. Despite his WR-18 projection, I hyped him repeatedly as a WR1, and he came through. Now no one's sleeping on him, obviously. His WR-8 ADP makes sense (he finished ninth in 2019). But keep this in mind: four of his six worst fantasy performances last year came with Stafford sidelined. His per-game fantasy production dropped from 17.4 points with Stafford to 13.6 without. He was on pace for a top-5 finish when Stafford went down. He has as much upside as any receiver not named Michael Thomas. Elsewhere, Marvin Jones (WR-37) should match or exceed his value if he stays healthy--a fairly big question mark. Danny Amendola is the value pick in this receiving corps. His WR-85 ADP suggests undraftability. But he's one of the better #3 WR streamers out there, meaning best-ball drafters should pounce a round or two early. Perhaps Geronimo Allison (WR-362) rounds out the top four; we'll see what August brings.
Finally, it's been sad seeing T.J. Hockenson at his TE-14 ADP. I want him either in the top 8 so I can let someone else take the chance, or outside the top 18 so I can comfortably snag him with my final pick. For a guy who went #8 overall in last year's draft, Hock was a fantasy letdown despite netting double-digit fantasy points twice in his first four contests. Detroit stupidly (maybe too harsh; what do I know) handed middling TE Jesse James a $25 million contract ($11 million) last offseason, so he's not going anywhere. The hope, then, is that the Lions give Hock more run in 2020. 600 yards and six scores are realistic. So is 400/4. But I'm hoping his ADP drops a bit more so I can get him on the cheap.