Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Tom Brady be a top-8 QB?
2. Is Ronald Jones a reliable RB3+?
3. Can Ke'Shawn Vaughn or Dare Ogunbowale be fantasy relevant?
4. Are Mike Evans and Chris Godwin WR1s?
5. Is Rob Gronkowski a top-8 TE?
It's fitting that a column on the Patriots be followed immediately by a column about the Bucs. These two franchises will be forever connected by the departure of an aged, all-time sports great seeking an independent sort of glory--not one that can be shared (or even arguably overshadowed) by his head coach. I'm not saying Bill Belichick deserves more praise than Tom Brady for winning Super Bowls. I'm not saying he doesn't. But it takes enormous guts for a player as storied as Brady to put this question to the test. If he falls flat in Tampa Bay (unlikely, but still . . .), his doubters surely will intensify: "If not for Belichick, Brady wouldn't have won all those titles." And if he thrives--and equally importantly, if the Pats fall flat--then his believers surely (and likely deservedly) will have "proof" their favorite quarterback was the Patriot dynasty's unquestioned MVP.
I love that the answer to this question might get a little more clarity this season. And I hate that Brady left New England. It's not my place to question what anyone else does, and admittedly, I've never rooted for the Patriots--ever. But I can certainly wish that greatness could be contained on one team, and that such as a legacy could be more compactly preserved. With all that in mind, we'll know soon whether Brady (QB-11 ADP) can be dominant while surrounded with his best receiving talent since his 2007 16-0 squad. If he can't meet expectations, it will be a minor shock. That doesn't mean the soon-to-be 43-year-old is as good as ever (he quite clearly isn't). But if the far less polished Jameis Winston could dominate for much of last season, it's easy to see how Brady could finish in the top 8.
If I were going to talk about coronavirus, it'd have a prominent place in every post. It hangs over everything, as it should. So the fact that rookie Ke'Shawn Vaughn (RB-35) has just been placed on the rookie/COVID-19 list is a big deal. Rookies in particular can't afford to miss camp. So while we wait for him to be activated, Ronald Jones (RB-30) and Dare Ogunbowale (RB-108) have a short-term leg up. As a result, Vaughn presently offers the most risk, Ogunbowale offers the best value, and Jones offers the highest ceiling. If Vaughn isn't in the rotation to start the season, watch for Ogunbowale to crack the top 45 in PPR, with a decent shot at the top 35 if he assumes a large share of passing-down duties.
Little needs to be said about Mike Evans (WR-8) or Chris Godwin (WR-6). The summer after his rookie year, I labeled Evans as a future Hall of Famer on this site. He really is that good, and there are few receivers I enjoy watching more. The main question is whether Brady can effectively feed two top-10 receivers--while also paying attention to Rob Gronkowski and possibly O.J. Howard. Basically, can Brady still hit 4,500/30? Because that's roughly what'll be needed for Evans and Godwin to (possibly) meet expectations. A more realistic result will be a top-12 finish for one wideout and a top 18-24 finish for the other. That's why I'm going way against convention and advising not buying Evans or Godwin at their price points. Also pay attention to Justin Watson (WR-163), the likely distant #3 option--but one Evans/Godwin injury away from fantasy relevance.
Whether or not you believe (as I do) that O.J. Howard has been severely underutilized in three NFL seasons, it's all moot with Gronk (TE-9) unretired and ready to roll. I can see some fantasy managers reaching for him around 5-6, and why not? Do you trust Evan Engram (TE-6) more? An obvious all-time great, Gronk's intangible is nearly a decade's chemistry with Brady, which means everything in Brady World. Still somehow only 31 years old, Gronk's upside is as high as any fantasy tight end, and his floor is around 10-12. Reach and hope there's still plenty of magic left. Meanwhile, Howard (TE-26) will continue to bide his time as an underutilized talent the Bucs should have sold high--or featured more prominently--a long time ago.