Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Cam Newton a top-18 QB?
2. Will Sony Michel be a reliable RB starter?
3. Is Julian Edelman a top-20 WR?
4. Can N'Keal Harry and/or Mohamed Sanu be fantasy relevant?
5. Is Devin Asiasi draftable?
For most of his career, Cam Newton has been a gifted multi-dimensional threat. Before getting hurt in the middle of the 2018 season, his Panthers were 6-2. He was on pace for nearly 4,000 passing yards, nearly 700 rushing yards, 38 TDs, only eight turnovers. I've long pushed him as an underrated fantasy asset--and more recently have missed badly due to injuries. Back in March I tweeted my fear that the Patriots would land him--because that's what Bill Belichick does. And that's what he did. So while Cam's QB-23 ADP reflects injury concerns and a style of play that's taken a toll on his 31-year-old body, I see opportunity. In two-QB leagues, Cam is worth a reach at 18-20. In one-QB leagues, he's what Matthew Stafford was for me last year: an automatic final-round pick with solid top-10 potential. Cam's health--not his talent--is the question mark. At that price, I'll gladly roll the dice.
Is Sony Michel another Laurence Maroney? Maybe that's not fair. But I wasn't a fan of New England drafting him in the first round in 2018. A largely one-dimensional runner, he enters a critical third season with a new quarterback and a still-crowded backfield, all while recovering from foot surgery that might keep him out when the season starts--and could limit his post-return production if others step up. Barring some LeGarrette Blount TD explosion, Michel offers unnecessary risk despite his (if healthy) appealing RB-38 ADP. As I say every summer, James White (RB-30) is the Patriot RB to roster. He's a healthier, higher-floor (and probably higher-ceiling) version of Michel. Rex Burkhead (RB-81) is bench fodder as usual. But Damien Harris (RB-61) is the clear value pick in this backfield. I love his cheap price and possible starter role if Michel isn't ready Week 1.
If Jarrett Stidham or even Brian Hoyer is helming this offense, all bets would be off for this receiving corps. But a potentially healthy Cam should be able to steadily feed 2-3 wideouts. Julian Edelman (WR-33) has enjoyed a 16-game pace of 98+ receptions and 1,000+ yards in each of his last six seasons. His ADP assumes a sharp regression, somewhere in the realm of 60/850/7. I don't see why; he should continue to be the team's unquestioned #1 target. Buy him at his low-end WR3 price. Meanwhile, 2019 first rounder N'Keal Harry (WR-51) has a clear path to #2 duties. The talent is there, though he'll need to take a sizable step forward to achieve fantasy relevance. As for Mohamed Sanu (WR-79), I got more flack about him last year than any other player. There was way too much hype when he landed in New England. I pushed back hard, and took a social media beating. The thing is, Sanu has never been a great receiver. When forced into a prime role in Cincinnati earlier in his career, I hyped him on this page because Andy Dalton didn't have many better options. In Atlanta pass-happy offense, he was a solid #3 option. So thinking he'd magically up his game in New England never made sense to me, especially in a crowded receiving corps where chemistry with Tom Brady was all-important.
Finally, rookie Devin Asiasi (TE-34) presumably will outperform his ADP and has breakout potential if Sanu or Harry flops, and/or if Cam returns to form. Essentially, Asiasi is a sure-fire top-25 option with plenty of room upstairs.