Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Aaron Rodgers be a top-6 QB?
2. Is Aaron Jones a top-8 RB?
3. Can A.J. Dillon be a streaming option?
4. Is Davante Adams a top-3 WR?
5. Can Devin Funchess be a top-50 WR?
It's sometimes hard to remember that Aaron Rodgers was once the most dependable elite QB in fantasy. In the nine years from 2008 to 2016, he finished in the top 2 seven times. Among the other two seasons, he was #4 in per-game fantasy production in one and a 300-point scorer in the other. Essentially, I'd be hard-pressed to final another example of a quarterback who so consistently dominated across a decade. Then in 2017, he was on pace for another 300-point season if not for injuries. And in 2018 he hit 313 points and finished sixth. So was last year--his age-35 season--an anomaly? He finished ninth with a "pedestrian" 278 points. The only receiver who cracked 500 yards was Davante Adams, and he missed four contests. So what do we make of Rodgers' QB-10 ADP? Is it a sign of his inevitable decline, or is it an oversight? I'm in the latter camp. If I could snag Rodgers at the 10-spot, I'll walk out of that draft thrilled.
For years I've challenged the notion that Jamaal Williams deserves equal footing with Aaron Jones, despite the fact that at times Williams claimed a 1A role. Last year Jones put that question to rest. Now the question is whether second-round rookie A.J. Dillon will stifle Jones's upside. Jones's RB-13 ranking appears to be insulting at first glance. But he averaged a touchdown every 15 touches last year--a highly unsustainable clip, especially with the looming presence of a competent goal-line threat like Dillon. 11 of Jones's touchdowns last year came inside the opposing 5. He is both a regression candidate and a solid bet for top-14 production. I'd definitely risk drafting Jones at his current value, understanding that 225-250 fantasy points remain realistic. Meanwhile, Dillon (RB-50) is the clear value pick over Williams (RB-59). Honestly, I don't understand why someone would draft Williams as anything more than a backup handcuff.
Few receivers mean as much to a quarterback as Davante Adams does to Rodgers. Last year Adams' 16-game pace was a 111/1,329/7 line. His TD downturn (35 scores in 45 games from 2016 to 2018) was due largely to Aaron Jones. He's the consensus #2-ranked fantasy wideout for good reason: clear-cut #1, highly talented QB, prime age, prime talent. He's one of the safest top-10 WRs, period. Do I think he'll finish #2, or even #3 or #4? No. Is he a safe pick at his price? Sure. In other words, while I definitely want him over 9th-ranked D.J. Moore, I'd be very happy taking Julio Jones (WR-5) or Kenny Golladay (WR-7) a few spots later and snagging a top-6 RB at Adams' price point (for example, if I had the 8th and 17th picks in a 12-team draft). As with some other teams recently discussed, the other receivers are toss-ups at this stage. The undrafted Allen Lazard (WR-65) made the most of his surprise opportunities last season, while underperforming 26-year-old Devin Funchess (WR-83) is trying to salvage a career that was supposed to go differently. Either Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR-134) or Jake Kumerow (WR-358) will battle for #4 honors. In this corps, Funchess seems like the obvious upside play. You can get him for half a penny, and he's got a good shot at becoming Rodgers' #2 target. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say Funchess will be a top-50 WR and, given his non-Adams competition, has a great shot at cracking the top 35. He should be drafted in all leagues.
Finally, there's Jace Sternberger (TE-27). Yes, he'll be an upgrade over potential future Hall-of-Famer Jimmy Graham. With only the ancient Mercedes Lewis and undersized rookie Josiah Deguara standing in his way, Sternberger has (relatively speaking) breakout potential as a top-18 option. 40/500/4 is realistic. Along with Ian Thomas (TE-25), Will Dissly (TE-31), and Tyler Eifert (TE-36), Sternberger is simply miscast as a near-bottom-tier fantasy tight end.