Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Lamar Jackson the #1 fantasy QB?
2. Is Mark Ingram an RB2?
3. Will J.K. Dobbins be an RB3+?
4. Can Marquise Brown be a WR3+?
5. Is Mark Andrews a top-4 TE?
The Ravens' 2019 season pivoted after a brutal home loss to the Browns in Week 4. Baltimore had beaten their rivals 19 of the previous 22 games, and for a brief moment Cleveland appeared to have regained its footing in what might have been a long-overdue battle for AFC North supremacy (a title the Browns hadn't claimed in 30 years). Instead, it proved to be a wake-up call for the Ravens, as they reeled off 12 straight wins before being overrun (literally) in the playoffs. In the regular season, Lamar Jackson fell 15 rushing yards short of surpassing Patrick Mahomes' historic 2018 output. It's mind-boggling to think the two greatest fantasy QB campaigns were achieved by a 22- and 23-year-old--and that they're now only 23 and 24. Jackson's running ability is arguably unprecedented, and passing game has improved. It's quite possible he and/or Mahomes will outdo themselves this year. Not much more needs to be said. Greatness is greatness.
Things get interested at running back. Mark Ingram surprised me last year, as I thought Jackson's ground game and plenty of capable backfield talent would limit Ingram to a 1A role that didn't justify his RB-22 ranking. He ended up earning 15 touches per game, and more importantly found the end zone 15 times. That latter stat is unsustainable, and his age (30 going on 31) and competition (led by rookie J.K. Dobbins) could be his fantasy undoing. Now ranked 27th at running back, Ingram should have more early-season value than late-season, and Dobbins' (RB-34) development will be a key fantasy storyline. Justice Hill (RB-74) and Gus Edwards (RB-93) will be wasted on the bench; I'd be surprised if both guys are still on the team by Week 17 (i.e. trade bait). In dynasty, Dobbins is worth a reach. For now, I wouldn't bet on any Baltimore back posting top-20 numbers this year.
I probably shouldn't be hating on Marquise Brown. He once again enters camp as the #1 receiver on a team that often seemed to lack a clear #1 in 2019. 21% of his production came in Game 1. Eight times he scored fewer than eight points, and in four of those games he was essentially invisible. Now, the Ravens were a run-focused team; Jackson threw only 401 passes in 15 contests. But in fantasy, consistency matters, and Brown isn't a reliable starter yet--a sentiment that his WR-30 ADP reinforces. The odd thing is, no other Baltimore receiver is ranked better than 90th. Miles Boykin (WR-90), Willie Snead (WR-101), De'Anthony Thomas (WR-120), and Devin Duvernay (WR-146) will battle for touches on a team where three of its five most targeted receivers last year were tight ends. In other words, we would need to see a dramatically altered game plan--a far more potent aerial attack--for any wideout not named Marquise to be fantasy relevant. However, I think the rookie Duvernay is the best value pick of the group, and he could be the team's #2 WR by 2021.
As for the team's tight ends, Mark Andrews was incredible in his second NFL season, leading all Raven receivers in every major category: targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. That said, can we trust his TE-3 ADP? I honestly don't know enough about Type 1 diabetes to conceive whether it could hinder his production in any way. But drafting him that early suggests he'll be even more productive than he was last year, when he was sixth in TE fantasy points per game. That's a leap I wouldn't be willing to take. Fifth? Sure, if that means waiting until the fifth round (Darren Waller's current value). But right now Andrews is viewed as a mid-fourth rounder, which seems a bit steep with guys like Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, and even Dak Prescott following close behind him. I'd take any of those three before lunging for Andrews.