Five Biggest Questions
1. Which QB will post the most fantasy points, and will it matter?
2. Is Austin Ekeler a safe RB1?
3. Will Keenan Allen be a top-14 WR?
4. Can Mike Williams be a top-30 WR?
5. Is Hunter Henry a top-6 TE?
The last franchise quarterback the Chargers drafted was Eli Manning . . . before being essentially forced to trade him for the draft rights to three future Pro Bowlers, including Philip Rivers . . . to back up Drew Brees and Doug Flutie. Really, can you imagine being on that sideline in 2004, surrounded by three quarterbacks who've now thrown more than 1,300 TDs and for nearly 200,000 yards (including Flutie's glorious CFL years)? With a declining Rivers now in Indy, the Chargers drafted someone they hope will be their new franchise quarterback: Justin Herbert (QB-36). Herbert could shine in this offense, though he might not get the chance this year. Much depends on external factors (pandemic) and internal ones (Tyrod Taylor: QB-30). Last year L.A. was wise to sign one of the league's most competent journeymen. I firmly believe that Taylor could be a top-14 QB with a full season under center. He was 16th, 8th, and 16th in three mostly full seasons with inferior surrounding talent in Buffalo. But he'll need to win games to keep his hold on the starting job. Facing the Chiefs, Bucs, and Saints in three of his first five contests, he'll need to weather that storm before his schedule softens a bit. Draft Taylor late in two-QB leagues; he'll be a short-term steal at worst.
Gotta say, I loved drafting Austin Ekeler last year. Ranked a ridiculous 41st among experts after collecting almost 1,000 total yards and six scores in only 14 games in 2018, he had "pop" written all over him--especially amidst Melvin Gordon's holdout. Will he surprise anyone this year? Yes, yes he could. His RB-12 ADP assumes 4-5 fewer points per game. I don't see it, especially without Melvin Gordon's 15.1 points per game. It would take a complete backfield collapse for the Chargers' fantasy rushing numbers to drop 50%. I'm banking on Ekeler as a top-12 RB. Meanwhile, Justin Jackson (RB-55) has a lot more upside than his ranking suggests, while rookie Joshua Kelley (RB-65) needs a Jackson regression to break into the top 40. Both guys are nice Best Ball stacks, as one should offer streaming production.
After finishing sixth in fantasy scoring, Keenan Allen's ranking has slipped to 20th due to the QB change. I see value here. What's more likely: Keenan returns to the WR1 club, or he becomes a mid-range WR3? I'm banking on top-14 numbers with a solid shot at top-8--yes, even if Taylor's throwing to him. Mike Williams' (WR-48) stock has plummeted since last summer, thanks to a down year and a conceivably "lesser" QB. Don't believe it. Williams has explosive potential and will be a WR3+. Bank on it. The only other wideout with a shot at fantasy relevance is rookie Joe Reed (WR-113). Overall, this remains one of the most top-heavy receiving corps in fantasy.
What do we make of Hunter Henry? He continues to look like the real deal, with a 16-game pace of 73/869/7 in 2019. As with Keenan and Williams, Henry's value is tied directly to what you think of Taylor/Herbert. His TE-7 is a pretty safe hedge.