Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Deshaun Watson a top-6 QB?
2. Will David Johnson be a top-14 RB?
3. Is Duke Johnson a top-35 RB?
4. Who will lead the receiving corps?
5. Which other wideouts are draftable?
Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins should have been one of the best QB-WR tandems in NFL history. The 28-year-old Hopkins already has 8,602 yards in seven season, and besides 2015 his best days have come with Watson at the helm. But a highly suspect (politely stated) offseason trade has left Watson with a running back whose best days were roughly 40 games ago, and four receivers who have flashed impressively at various times, but who don't rival Hopkins' talent or consistency. The fantasy universe still views Watson (QB-6) as near-elite, and why not? I'm expecting a sizable uptick in passes; candidly, he's too good for Houston to once be in the bottom half in passing volume. Simply put, he's priced about right, and his upside remains near-elite bordering on elite.
Few players in the NFL are under more pressure to perform than David Johnson. In July 2018 I explained to readers why his 2016 breakout didn't merit an RB-4 ranking two years later. Last summer I issued another warning, walking through why his RB-6 rankings was similarly insane. And now, it's safe to say his stock has (belatedly) plummeted. In his last 40 games (since the middle of 2016), he's averaged 3.6 YPC. He's no longer getting all those goal-line looks he saw four years ago. Signed through the end of this season, Johnson's playing for a starting job in 2021, and this could be his final year in that role. Owning an RB-21 ADP, he's a high-risk, solid-reward (i.e. top 12-14 upside) if he becomes the three-down back head coach Bill O'Brien envisions. And you better believe O'Brien will try to get everything he can out of Johnson, considering what he gave up to get him. Meanwhile, Duke Johnson (RB-49) is a high-floor, low-ceiling (RB3) flyer.
At wide receiver, things get even more interesting. Five guys still in their 20's--all with starter experience--will vie for the top 2-3 spots. (And yes, Randall Cobb is still barely in his 20's, which makes absolutely no sense.) Brandin Cooks (WR-35) and Will Fuller (WR-36) lead the pack based on ADP, while Cobb (WR-75), Kenny Stills (WR-73), and Keke Coutee (WR-275). Fuller's still recovering from muscle surgery, and Stills was arrested last week at a protest. If everyone's ready to go Week 1 . . . well, who knows. Really, does anyone know? Here's what I can predict: Randall Cobb will not lead this team in receiving. It's also a pretty safe bet Keke Coutee won't lead the team in receiving. That leaves the somewhat questionable and chronically injured Will Fuller competing with veteran newcomers Cooks and Stills. Remember, aside from two huge games last season, Fuller was nearly unstartable. He's the riskiest wideout at his ADP. And assuming Stills ends up among the top 3, he's easily the best bargain. Put another way, at some point Stills will be starting, so make sure you grab him in Best Ball or with your last pick in very deep leagues.
Finally, the TE situation is an even hotter mess, and with less talent. The 34-year-old Darren Fells was Watson's most reliable tight end target last year, and that's not saying much. The fantasy universe thinks it'll be a battle between Fells (TE-38) and Jordan Thomas (TE-52). But keep an eye on 2019 third-rounder Kahale Warring (TE-175). Never before have I advised readers to keep an eye on a TE outside the top 150 (or probably even the top 75). Possessing athleticism, great hands, and plenty of intangibles (notable run blocker with a strong work ethic), Warring has a path to a 1A role if things break right. Still, it could be 2021 or 2022 before we find out.