Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Drew Brees a reliable top-10 QB?
2. Is Alvin Kamara an elite RB?
3. Will Latavius Murray have stand-alone value?
4. Can Emmanuel Sanders be a top-35 WR?
5. Will Jared Cook be a top-8 TE?
I really thought the Saints were headed to the Super Bowl back in January. Drew Brees is returning for what could be one or two more years (depending on whether he retires after this season. So if you're a New Orleans fan, this might be the final hurrah before Jameis Winston and/or Taysom Hill take over the QB reins. Of course, Brees missed more than one game in 2019 for the first time in 16 seasons. He's nearing the back end of 41. Yet remarkably, his completion percentage has risen each year since 2015. Last December's historic 29-for-30 performance was one of the greatest QB feats in NFL history. So yes, Brees (QB-9) remains a solid fantasy quarterback, thanks in no small part to his two elite teammates.
One of those elite guys is Alvin Kamara, who played hurt last year and missed two games and still ranked ninth in fantasy. His remarkably consistent passing-game usage (81 receptions in each of his first three seasons) and terrific 5.0 YPC are reminders of just how dominant he is. Kamara's RB-4 ADP is entirely reasonable. Last year he was 3-for-8 converting scores on rushing attempts inside the opposing 5, but all three scores came from the 1. In 2018 he was 9-for-16 converting scores on rushes inside the 5, with six coming from the 1. Last year's TD regression was an anomaly. 2018 levels might be unrealistic, but expect a TD spike over 2019's "paltry" total of six. Meanwhile, Latavius Murray (RB-45) is now 30 years old and should be viewed more as a glorified handcuff than as a stand-alone fantasy starter. As long as Kamara's healthy, Murray will be limited to about 7-9 touches a game. And it would take a major injury to shift Dwayne Washington (RB-151) or Ty Montgomery (RB-250) onto fantasy radars.
Michael Thomas's greatness cannot be understated. Last year he earned 33% of all targets. His target share among WRs and TEs was 48%. Think about that. So yeah, that's why he's a WR1. That and the fact that he catches almost everything thrown at him. The rest of the receiving corps holds one major question mark. Post-prime newcomer Emmanuel Sanders (WR-50) flashed last year in a more conservative passing offense, so perhaps he can hit the top 35 with Brees throwing to him. Much depends on whether Tre'Quan Smith (WR-113) can take a couple steps forward after his 2019 regression. Sanders is obviously the easier call given his track record. So for now, I'm buying him as a top-40 WR with some pop, and I'm tracking Smith just in case.
Finally, after bouncing around the Titans, Rams, Packers, and Raiders, Jared Cook posted the best per-game numbers of his career at age 32. His TE-10 ADP is a bit conservative though I recognize a rebounding Kamara and an improved #2 WR could cut into Cook's production. Still, despite drafting Adam Trautman in the third round (and trading four picks to get him), Cook deserves a close look as a reliable TE1 as long as he's starting. A 50/650/5 line is realistic, and a little more is possible.