Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Joe Burrow be a top-14 QB?
2. Is Joe Mixon a top-6 RB?
3. Will A.J. Green return to greatness?
4. Can Tyler Boyd remain a weekly fantasy starter?
5. Will Cincy make room for Tee Higgins or John Ross?
Cincinnati had a pretty insane, drama-filled 2019, culminating in their first franchise QB change in 10 years, when Andy Dalton replaced the soon-to-be-missed Carson Palmer. But last year was completely worth it, right? They snagged Joe Burrow at #1 on draft day. He has all the tools to be a star someday, and he has enough weapons--and a bad enough defense--to post sizable numbers. If the key components remain healthy, I like Burrow at his QB-16 ADP. Realistically he won't finish outside the top 20, and his upside is high enough to warrant an automatic fantasy draft pick.
Joe Mixon's Jekyll-and-Hyde season helped define the Bengals' bizarre campaign. Before the Week 9 bye he had 320 rushing yards on 101 carries (3.2 YPC), including the infamous two-yards-on-10-carries effort that, anecdotally, led many fantasy managers to throw up their hands in disgust and trade him for whatever they could get. The next eight games were an entirely different story on the ground: 177 carries for 817 yards, or 4.6 YPC. With Burrow now under center and Gio Bernard's usefulness fading with each passing season, Mixon is primed for a great year. Will he exceed his RB-7 ADP? Well, Mixon is averaging under 2.5 receptions per game, and it's unusual for RBs to crack the top 10 if they're not racking up catches.
Two factors could be in his favor though: If Cincy cuts Gio, that's 83 touches from 2019 up for grabs. Mixon hasn't been overworked in his young career. He could easily push past 350 touches while picking up some of Gio's lost receptions. Or, if this offense is as revitalized as it appears, Mixon could dominate the goal line. Last year, six of the nine backs with double-digit-TDs finished in the top 6. Mixon had 18 carries inside the opposing five-yard-line, converting on five of them. Three times he was turned away at the 1. Mixon has never enjoyed double-digit touchdowns. This year I'm betting he will.
From a fantasy perspective, A.J. Green is a huge (and obvious) wild card. His "lost" 2019 season probably was for the best, since it helped his team upgrade at QB for years to come. Assuming Green is a full go Week 1, he'll be a bargain at his WR-30 ADP. But how much better can he be? That's the big question, since the team Green last played for in 2018 looks much different today. Tyler Boyd (WR-31) showed his 2018 breakout wasn't a fluke, second-round rookie Tee Higgins (WR-64) is starter-ready, and former first-rounder John Ross (WR-78) finally showed enough life in 2019 to merit some kind of role when healthy. Meanwhile, Auden Tate (WR-92) might be the best #5 WR in the league. So what can be said of this potentially jumbled mess? If I'm Cincy's GM, I'm trading Green or Boyd. Improve this team's lackluster defense and/or bolster a porous offensive line (preferably the latter). So let's see how this all shakes out. I'd be shocked if this team is content to bench Higgins or Ross for long.
At TE, the what-could-have-been Tyler Eifert era is no more, at least in Cincy. Drew Sample (TE-45) and C.J. Uzomah (TE-51) are expected to carry the load. Despite the latter's fantasy-friendly finish to 2019, Sample has the higher ceiling. Barring an injury, this is a battle to wait out for as long as possible--perhaps until 2021.