Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Kirk Cousins a top-16 QB?
2. Is Dalvin Cook still a higher-than-normal injury risk?
3. Will Adam Thielen be a WR1?
4. Can Justin Jefferson be a WR3+?
5. Is Irv Smith draftable?
I don't remember the last time a team went 2-4 in its division and still made the playoffs. But Minnesota managed to get it done with a run-heavy offense (fifth most rushes in the league), discipline (third fewest penalties), and an often-maligned quarterback who started badly, ended weekly, but still managed to give fantasy managers six very good performances. That's not a lot, but given how little he was needed, it was acceptable. The question is whether Kirk Cousins' best fantasy days are behind him. This is now Dalvin Cook's offense, with a side of Alexander Mattison. Here's the thing: Cousins' QB-21 ADP assumes continued regression off his #15 ranking in 2019. Is that because of Stefon Diggs' departure? Is there any consideration that Adam Thielen was playing hurt or sidelined for most of last season? Buy Cousins as a mid-range QB2 at worst and a back-range QB1 at best. His price is simply an overreaction to the believe he's season-long waiver fodder.
Not much needs to be said about Cook (RB-5). After missing 12 games his rookie campaign and five more in 2018, last year was critically important: could he stay healthy? It's never been about talent with Cook. On a per-game basis, he averaged the second most fantasy points among all backs. So again, it comes down to health. His first near-full season--in which he cleared 300 touches--is a bit of a yellow flag, but not enough to steer clear in the first round. But it should be obvious that Mattison (RB-44) is a top-5 handcuff and a must-draft option if you take Cook. Really, you're playing with fire if you don't reach early for a guy who's currently going, on average, 120 overall. I view him as a solid eighth-round pick in 12-team leagues, meaning a couple rounds before his average uptake. Again, I can't be any more blunt: there's a great chance Cook will miss at least one game, and a decent chance he'll miss multiple. Don't mess around and think you can get Mattison in the ninth or 10th. You will feel crushed if a smarter opponent gets him first.
What do I like more than undervalued players in their prime, coming off injuries, and therefore undervalued heading into next season? Not much. Adam Thielen was a top-8 fantasy wideout in 2017 and 2018 and was averaging 16.5 points in 2019's first six contests. When healthy he remains, at worst, a top 12-14 WR, and at best he can reach the top 6-8. Buy him at his WR-14 ADP. Given the team's top-heavy corps, first-round rookie Justin Jefferson (WR-44) offers the most pure fantasy value on this team. I really, really want Jefferson at that price: not much to lose, and potential top-25 production to gain. Elsewhere, Tajae Sharpe (WR-142) and perhaps Bisi Johnson (WR-346) will be the third-most targeted WR. But really, it could be anyone; I haven't been impressed with a Viking #3 WR since the Reagan administration.
Kyle Rudolph's career as a solidly above-average TE with annual TE1 potential is drawing to a close. Paired with rookie Irv Smith, Rudolph's snap count declined as last season progressed in spite of Thielen's absence, while Smith eventually overtook him in Week 14. While snap count isn't everything, it's a reminder of how highly the coaching staff values Smith, whose TE-22 ADP outshines Rudolph's TE-26 ranking. Gimme Smith in the final round for a good shot at 55/550/6. He'll be the #4 or #5 option on offense by midseason. Meanwhile, most of Rudolph's guaranteed money already has been paid out; I'd be surprised if he plays out his contract through 2023. Smith clearly is the present and the future.