Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Baker Mayfield a top-14 QB?
2. Will Nick Chubb be a top-8 RB?
3. Can Kareem Hunt be a top-25 RB?
4. Will Jarvis Landry be a WR2?
5. Is Austin Hooper a top-8 TE?
If I were to make a certifiable crazy prediction, it would be this: the NFL regular season is cut to eight games. The Browns sneak into the postseason at 5-3, and then take out the Patriots and Ravens to reach (and then win) the Super Bowl. And then Browns fans will be eternally happy. And then we can focus on the New York Knicks or some other recently historically hapless franchise. But in reality, Cleveland of course is capable enough to reach the playoffs regardless of how long the season goes. So let's acknowledge that they'll improve on their 6-10 mark, and realistically could go 10-6 and earn that coveted postseason berth.
It starts with Baker Mayfield, last summer's allegedly "can't-miss" near-elite fantasy QB. His QB-5 ADP was insane. If you're new to this page, that's not Monday-morning quarterbacking. I was one of the lone voices warning that Baker was ridiculously overrated. This year he's priced more accurately (QB-14). Gone (hopefully) is the cockiness of his abbreviated rookie campaign, replaced with a clearer understanding of his correctable flaws. For example, I don't think we'll see him take another 40 sacks, thanks to a potentially improved offensive line and greater maturity/discipline from Baker. Also, Cleveland had the league's ninth most dropped passes; there's clearly room for improvement here, though to be candid, Jarvis Landry led all receivers in drops in 2018, and he and Odell Beckham, Jr. were among the top 35 in this category last season. I'm willing to buy Baker, with the view that QB-14 is his floor, and his ceiling is comfortably higher.
Nick Chubb would be a top-3 RB if not for Kareem Hunt. His RB-8 ADP is in line with his 2019 production. So what's the problem? When Hunt was suspended, Chubb averaged 18.9 points per game. When Hunt returned to the field, Chubb's numbers dropped to 13/game. While I want to believe Chubb deserves his pretty universal RB1 standing, I'm very concerned Hunt will continue to net roughly 10 touches per game--including a greater share of the passing attack--leaving Chubb more TD-dependent than a reliable RB1 should be. The talent is there, no question. But if he gets only 13-15 touches per game, he'll be a significant risk at that price. Meanwhile, Hunt (RB-28) has bargain potential. Expanding his eight-game production across a full season in 2019, Hunt would have been the 18th best fantasy RB. I love his RB3 floor and believe he'll outperform expectations.
For much of 2019, "elite" OBJ was a fantasy catastrophe, helping to define the Browns' often dysfunctional aerial attack. Yet "bad" OBJ still finished with a 74/1,035/4 line, and I'm guessing that's the worst version of him we'll see for years. His WR-12 ranking makes him a very nice buy candidate on the assumption a 90/1,200/7 campaign is entirely realistic. Across the field, Landry actually outperformed OBJ last year, but offseason surgery and some questions about his Week 1 availability have pushed his ADP down to 29. Let's be frank: Landry's upside is too high to let him pass you by at 29, especially when looking at who's playing behind him: Rashard Higgins (WR-345) and rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR-347). While Peoples-Jones could eventually claim the #3 role, this WR corps will be dominated by OBJ and Landry, making them a terrific stack (with Baker) at their price points.
Finally, few TEs' stocks have fallen faster than David Njoku's. Last summer's ninth-ranked tight end is now relegated to #32 thanks to the arrival of Austin Hooper. Of course, as many of you know, Hooper has been painfully undervalued every preseason, and this one is no exception. His TE-12 ADP assumes some kind of time-share with Njoku. As soon as the latter is traded, Hooper will be a shoo-in for top-7 production. And even if Njoku sticks around to start the season, Cleveland didn't shell out $23 million guaranteed to Hooper to hand him a 50/500/3 line. This is a rare situation where both of the team's TEs are undervalued, as Njoku should find a landing spot on a TE-needy team, instantly catapulting him into the top 14-18 at worst.