Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Derek Carr be a top-20 QB?
2. Is Josh Jacobs a top-8 RB?
3. Can Henry Ruggs lead the WR corps?
4. Will Hunter Renfrow or Ty Williams be a top-40 WR?
5. Is Darren Waller a top-5 TE?
How were the Raiders still in playoff contention heading into Week 12 last year? Closing 1-5, they finished 24th in points scored, despite being 11th in total offensive yards. Interestingly, they endured the league's third most penalties--and second most yards penalized. On the assumption that they can get that sloppiness under control (they were much better in the penalty department in 2018), Vegas once again could be a playoff contender in 2020. At quarterback, Derek Carr enjoyed arguably the best statistical year of his career, aided by a strong running game and receivers who largely rose to the occasion. Despite the arrival of Marcus Mariota (QB-41), Carr is a useful bargain at his unfair QB-26 ADP. Last year Carr finished 16th overall, and I believe he'll hold onto the starting job, making him a must-start 2-QB-leaguer for as long as he's on the field.
At running back, Josh Jacobs did everything one could have hoped for in his rookie campaign, assuming a workhorse role out of the gate and paying big fantasy dividends until getting hurt. His RB-9 ADP might be a bit conservative, if we're to assume his aerial-game usage will pop. Imagining a 250-carry Jacobs with 50+ receptions is to imagine a near-automatic top-6 fantasy RB. Rookie Lynn Bowden (RB-67) and veteran Jalen Richard (RB-71) will battle it out for handcuff duties. I prefer the veteran--a proven capable runner coming off a surprising (and reboundable) off year). Bowden could see time at receiver as well, making him a harder fantasy commodity to peg.
Two notable facts at receiver: the Raiders are more loaded than last year (a great sign for Carr), and the only wideout ranked inside the top 60 is rookie Henry Ruggs (WR-46). That simply doesn't make sense. With Derek Carr struggling on deep balls, Ruggs is priced about right as a potential boom-bust option, though if he becomes the clear-cut #1, he has clear upside. Still, I'm not sure anyone can definitely predict the target-based pecking order of this receiving corps. Hunter Renfrow (WR-64), Tyrell Williams (WR-75), rookie Bryan Edwards (WR-80), and Nelson Agholor (WR-92) are all candidates to surprise, with Renfrow offering the highest floor and possibly the highest ceiling (especially in PPR). The key takeaway here is that Ruggs and Renfrow are the best investments for now.
Darren Waller entered last season--his fifth in the NFL--with 18 career receptions. His TE ADP was 28. Needless to say, those who drafted him, or grabbed him after his Week 1 breakout, secured one of the greatest TE bargains of the past decade. The former sixth rounder simply dominated. Now he's not fooling anybody. The #5-ranked TE is expected to produce at comparable levels--despite improved wideouts. Last year's #3 WR was Zay Jones. Yes, that Zay Jones. Waller's target share was 24%. While finishing at #5 is entirely realistic, I think it's more of a ceiling than a floor. With Foster Moreau (and perhaps a little Jason Witten) poaching near the goal line and Carr enjoying more aerial weapons, expect some regression from Waller.