Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Philip Rivers be a top-18 QB?
2. Can Jonathan Taylor be the bellcow?
3. Is T.Y. Hilton a safe WR2+?
4. Will Michael Pittman become a WR4+?
5. Is Jack Doyle draftable?
In the past nine seasons, when Andrew Luck has started Week 1, Indy has finished no worse than 8-8. When he hasn't, Indy's had a losing record. Luck's shocking retirement announcement last summer turned this serious AFC South title contender into a barely middling squad with a bottom-5 passing attack. Former backup Jacoby Brissett deserves a lot of credit for rising to the occasion on short notice. But after a blistering first six games that included 15 TDs, he managed only seven scores in his final nine contests. He was what he had seemed to be all along: an above-average spot starter, and not someone to build a team around. Enter the 38-year-old Philip Rivers, who looked somewhere between gritty and horrendous in a 2019 campaign that maybe should have been his last. His QB-22 ADP makes sense. We cannot look at him as we have before. He's a back-end 2-QB-league starter with (if things break right) top 16-18 upside.
Anyone else see the Colts trading Marlon Mack or Nyheim Hines in the next three months? Giving up a fifth rounder to move up three spots to snag Jonathan Taylor, Indy clearly knew what they wanted. Mack is a solid two-down back. Taylor has the potential to be a 300-touch impact RB. If you're buying Taylor, you're buying into his upside. He very well could start the season in a timeshare with Mack (RB-42) and Hines (RB-55) until the rookie acclimates to the NFL. But if you're playing to win, Taylor is worth his RB-21 ADP, just as Mack is worth his as a handcuff with clear RB2 upside--or if another NFL starter goes down early, imagine him being an instant bargain if Indy unloads him.
The receiving corps also has plenty of unknowns, based partly on Rivers' worrisome arm, and partly on whether T.Y. Hilton is still a reliable WR2+. Common sense would dictate "sure he is, with WR1 upside." But here's a contrarian perspective: in eight seasons, T.Y. has never exceeded seven touchdowns, and he hasn't faced consistently fierce internal competition since his rookie campaign. In 2013 he lined up with a declining and mostly injured Reggie Wayne and Darrius Heyward-Bey. In ensuing years, guys like Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett were expected to carry their weight--and usually fell short. There's now arguably the most talent at receiver since 2012. Hilton's WR-24 is both fair and cautionary. I could see him hitting the top 18-20 if things break right. But based on question marks surrounding Rivers and because of improved (and healthy) wideouts, I believe T.Y. will be hitting 11-13 fantasy points per game--not the 13-15+ required of a reliable WR2.
And who are these other receivers? Second-round rookie Michael Pittman (WR-54) should ascend quickly as the team's #2 WR. For you dynasty folks, he could supplant T.Y. atop Indy's depth chart by 2022--or even 2021 if the veteran bolts in free agency. Meanwhile, lightning fast 2019 second-rounder Parris Campbell hopes to put his injury-laden rookie year behind him. His WR-70 ADP appropriately reflects a boom-bust option as the team's #3. And surprise 2019 breakout Zach Pascal (WR-85) needs an injury to be semi-useful, and even then, "semi" is about as good as he'll be in this new-look offense.
Finally, Jack Doyle (TE-18) doesn't have to split time with Eric Ebron anymore. But that doesn't mean he's in the clear. Mo Alie-Cox (TE-75) and Trey Burton (TE-54) both have the talent to cut into Doyle's upside. Doyle is priced about right, as he's the #4 offensive option at best and #6 (behind Campbell and either Mack or Hines) at worst.