Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Matt Ryan a top-8 QB?
2. Is Todd Gurley healthy enough to be a top-14 RB?
3. Will Ito Smith be a solid fantasy handcuff?
4. Will Calvin Ridley be a top-14 WR?
5. Is Hayden Hurst a top-10 TE?
There's been some Twitter buzz about whether or not Matt Ryan is a Hall-of-Fame quarterback. Interested in hearing your thoughts. For me it's a no-brainer. At 35 years old, he's already 10th in passing yards and 11th in passing touchdowns all time, with room to grow in both categories. While loss of Austin Hooper will be felt this year, Ryan (QB-8 ADP) remains near the upper echelon in fantasy, thanks in large part to a strong supporting cast.
My Devonta Freeman pick last summer wasn't exactly disastrous: he finished 20th despite missing two games and was on pace to hit the top 14. But the career rebound I'd expected didn't materialize. One post-prime RB leaves, and a new post-prime RB enters: Todd Gurley (RB-15 ADP). Interestingly, Gurley had more rushing TDs last year than the entire Falcons roster. Even if he barely musters 225 touches (a lower-end estimate assuming he misses a couple games), Gurley's historical goal-line usage will serve him well. A little over 50% of his rushing TDs since December 2015 (25 of 49) have come inside the opposing 2-yard line. He should net plenty of punch-in opportunities in Atlanta, particularly with the departure of the exceptionally reliable Hooper, who scored six of his 16 career touchdowns from inside the opposing 3. Elsewhere, Ito Smith (RB-73) has the edge over Brian Hill (RB-113), provided Smith is fully recovered from his neck injury.
For nearly a decade, Atlanta's passing game has run through Julio Jones (WR-5). Realistically he'll finish his career in the top 3 in receiving yards and top 5 in receptions. His only knock is a frustrating inconsistency finding the end zone. Since 2013--spanning 97 contests--Julio has only 39 TDs. He has thrived in spite of it, and there's no rational reason to think he'll disappoint in 2020. Across the field, 2018 first rounder Calvin Ridley was last year's #18 fantasy WR on a per-game basis. His WR-17 ADP might actually be a bit conservative, and his continued ascension will be pivotal to Ryan exceeding his QB-8 ranking. With Russell Gage (WR-99) a distant third in this corps, it's easy to see how Ridley could join Julio among WR1s. If Julio or Ridley goes down for an extended period, and if Atlanta is a serious playoff contender, expect them to trade for help quickly.
As many of you know, Austin Hooper has been my favorite underrated TE for a while. I won't be quite as high on Hayden Hurst, though to be fair, he's a legit talent. A former Ravens' first-rounder who spent two years as a backup, Hurst (TE-11) has found a perfect landing spot in a top-heavy aerial attack. He's a safe top-14 option and is a reasonable reach at 8 or 9.