Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Sam Darnold be a top-20 QB?
2. Can Le'Veon Bell be an RB1?
3. Who will be the top fantasy WR?
4. Can Jamison Crowder be a WR3?
5. Is Chris Herndon draftable?
Ok, Jets fans, including you Justin Koplin. This is surely the season you've been waiting for. Or maybe not. If only last year's 1-7 start had led to a top draft pick--or trading down to a desperate team for a nice haul. Instead, this franchise found its groove as its schedule softened, reeling off six wins in its final eight contests to claim mediocre legitimacy--or legitimate mediocrity.
We begin with "franchise" QB Sam Darnold, who arrived in New York (and New Jersey) with much fanfare as 2018's third overall pick. Now somehow only 23, coming off a slightly improved 2019 season--despite missing three games for the second straight year--Darnold is a pre-trendy 2-QB league target at his QB-24 ADP. Gone are Robby Anderson and a bunch of forgettable contributors, #1 WR Jamison Crowder is back, and two immediate-impact wideouts have arrived in Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims. No longer leaning on guys like Terrelle Pryor, Jermaine Kearse, and Quincy Enunwa, Darnold finally has (potentially) a nice array of receivers. Along with expected improvements in the backfield aerial game, I'm eyeing roughly a 4,000/28/14 season. Yes, he could sneak into spot-starter contention if Perriman and/or Mims fulfill expectations.
There's a lot to say about Le'Veon Bell, and I'll narrow it down to this: His 2018 holdout worked beautifully, manufacturing a monster payday for a 27-year-old with a lot of mileage. In fairness, he shouldn't really be blamed for last year's poor production. The Jets averaged a league-low 1.4 yards per contact on their rushing attempts, and Bell's 59 broken tackles was ninth among backs. His snap rate (77%) was exceptional. There's no obvious RB competing for his job. And the Jets did well to beef up their o-line. All this makes his RB-18 ADP fairly ridiculous. "Yeah, but Adam Gase doesn't like him." Yeah, there's friction, and yeah, there's talk of cutting back Bell's touches. But even if he drops to 200 carries and 50 receptions, he'll crack the top 16. His upside is top 4-6 if his body holds up. Elsewhere, Frank Gore (RB-108) hopefully will be handed a primo NFL coaching job or management position by this time next year, and rookie Lamical Perine (RB-119) is the handcuff to roster and is egregiously undervalued given his potential third-down role and possible (eventual) handcuff status.
Jamison Crowder has always been solid. But let's not get fooled into thinking his 2019 rebound is a sign of greater things to come. He led all Washington receivers in 2017, but that's because he lined up with Josh Doctson, Ryan Grant, and post-prime Vernon Davis. Outside of Robby Anderson, it was a similar story last year. Although his WR-50 ADP is too conservative, WR4 production--not last year's WR3 output--is a reasonable expectation. This outlook assumes Breshad Perriman (WR-60) and/or Denzel Mims (WR-66) achieve top-40 numbers, which is somewhere between "likely" and "very likely." In Best Ball, grab both a round early (overall 158 ADP for Perriman, and 200 for Mims). A former first-round bust in Baltimore and Cleveland, Perriman averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game in December, and is now facing a one-year "prove-it-again" deal in the hopes of earning a long-term contract. His biggest knock is an egregious career catch rate (49%). But he has the highest upside in this corps. Meanwhile, Mims is the wild card, and it's hard to gauge where he'll fall in the pecking order until we see him in action.
Finally, Chris Herndon's suspension- and injury-filled 2019 campaign hardly could have been worse. He's the quintessential "nothing-to-lose" flyer at his TE-21 ADP. A terrific pass-catcher in what should be an improved offense, Herndon also has a worrisome injury history. I like him finishing in the top 16--as long as he can stay on the field.