Five Biggest Questions
1. Can Ben Roethlisberger be a top-14 QB?
2. Is James Conner a reliable weekly starter?
3. Will JuJu Smith-Schuster return to WR1 status?
4. Can Chase Claypool make an immediate impact?
5. Is Eric Ebron draftable?
What an odd 2019 for Pittsburgh. They part ways with their disgruntled all-world receiver Antonio Brown. Simultaneously (the same day?), their all-world bellcow Le'Veon signs with the Jets. Then Ben Roethlisberger gets knocked out for the season in Week 2. Then they won eight of 11 games to take control of their playoff destiny. Then they collapsed against the Bills and Jets to seal their fate. Signed for one more year, the 38-year-old Roethlisberger is presumably at the end of his career. We'll see if he can fully recover from his elbow injury and start Week 1. His QB-16 ADP is the ultimate hedge: a healthy Big Ben could still manufacture QB1 numbers, and at the same time, he's a bigger re-injury risk than most quarterbacks. If Mason Rudolph is forced to start, it could be another unpredictable fantasy year for the Steelers' big-name players.
Speaking of big names, I warned against James Conner last summer. Although his injury-riddled campaign deserves some of the blame, his only game with more than 55 rushing yards was against lowly Miami. Always a threat in the passing game, Conner (RB-22) is once again on a shorter leash than many people realize. He's in that fantasy danger zone of being good enough to be declared the "starter," but not good enough to continue in the role if he starts slow. Jaylen Samuels (RB-67) could evolve into another Chris Thompson or Theo Riddick, meaning his ADP is a bit low. And it's hard to imagine rookie Anthony McFarland (RB-57) and Benny Snell (RB-76) riding the pine all year. Big picture: I don't want to invest in Conner, and would rather leave this backfield to my opponents.
If Big Ben returns to full strength, no one will benefit more than JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR-11). 2017's breakout rookie receiver--and 2018's unstoppable sophomore receiver--largely struggled with injuries and a few doses of Mason Rudolph last year. That said, his ADP makes me nervous (again, because who knows what Ben will do). The value pick in this corps is rookie Chase Claypool (WR-81); assuming he starts, he could become an immediate #2 WR in this offense. Diontae Johnson (WR-39) can meet or exceed expectations only if Claypool busts (highly improbable); I doubt Johnson cracks the top 50 this year. And the dangerous James Washington (WR-72) offers outstanding organizational depth, and could find his way into this offense and onto fantasy managers' rosters if at some point he gets a starting nod.
Finally, Eric Ebron remains one of fantasy's most enigmatic tight ends. Now on his third team in four seasons, his TE-19 ADP makes sense if he's on the field in the red zone. Historically that's where fantasy managers have made their money with him. For perspective, just 9.5% of his career receptions have been touchdowns. Travis Kelce? 7.3%. Zach Ertz? 6.7%. And don't forget 2019 bust Vance McDonald, who's a pretty high-priced backup. While no one's drafting McDonald, he could play a spoiler role for those investing in Ebron. Regardless, I'd stay away; Ebron is probably looking at a 45/475/6 season at best.