Five Biggest Questions
1. Will Dwayne Haskins take another step forward?
2. Is Derrius Guice draftable?
3. Will Antonio Gibson lead this backfield?
4. Who will be the #2 wideout?
5. Is any TE worth drafting?
It’s been 29 years since Washington has won more than 10 regular season games. I'm not sure any team can make a similar claim (the Browns haven't won 11+ in 26 years, which is the next-worst I could find). Needless to say, Washington remains one of the league's worst teams. The hype surrounding Jay Gruden's hiring as head coach in 2014 turned out to be very premature; he was fired last season after an 0-5 start, walking away with a 35-49-1 record.
That's the backdrop for a squad that remains in transition. The development of their second-year "franchise" QB, former first-rounder Dwayne Haskins, will dictate whether they can climb out of the NFC East cellar. From a fantasy perspective, here's a little-known (or perhaps well known--I don't know what you know) fact: last year Haskins was statistically worse than the veteran he mercifully replace midseason, Case Keenum. Keenum completed 65% of his passes en route to 171 yards per game, along with 12 TDs and eight turnovers in eight starts. In seven starts, Haskins completed 59% of his passes with 152 yards per game, along with seven TDs and nine turnovers. While the rookie was better on the ground (a competent 101 rushing yards on 20 carries), we can't realistically expert Haskins to break out as a rusher in 2020. At Ohio State he logged only 194 yards on 103 carries (1.9 YPC).
Haskins will remain a risky two-QB-league starter this season. His QB-29 ADP reflects potential preseason competition from offseason acquisition Kyle Allen--one of last year's most overrated QBs after winning his first four starts. Eventually he was exposed as a spot-starter talent at best, making his QB-49 ADP a realistic projection. Meanwhile, Alex Smith (unranked) has an outside shot if he's somehow cleared and given the opportunity. But if Washington is forced to turn to Smith or Allen--if Haskins flops in his sophomore campaign--then the franchise is in even more trouble than we realize.
Uncertainty continues at running back, where 2019's famed (sarcasm) one-two punch is giving it another go. The 35-year-old Adrian Peterson (RB-63) is a spoiler candidate after faring surprisingly decently in the league's lowest-scoring offense. Derrius Guice (RB-30) is a bust waiting to happen. Really, what are people thinking drafting him as a low-end RB3? Everything has to go perfectly for him to make good--a tough sell for an injury-riddled back with only 49 touches across two NFL seasons. That leaves rookie Antonio Gibson, who at this early stage is expected to be utilized in the backfield and at wideout, kind of like former second-rounder Dexter McCluster. Except not at all. Gibson is bigger, stronger, and faster. The only knock I can see is usage: Can he physically handle 12-16 touches a game, and will Washington *feed* him 12-16 touches a game? At his RB-51 ADP, Gibson is worth grabbing a round or two early; his ADP probably will climb 10-20 spots this summer.
Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson, and Trey Quinn were atop last Week 1's depth chart. It didn't take long for three rookies to replace all three. Terry McLaurin became the clear-cut #1 out of the gate and is sensibly ranked at his WR-27 ADP. A better QB would give him a great shot at full-season WR2+ numbers. But that's unlikely this year, or even next to be candid. Steve Sims finished 2019 very strong and enters 2020 as a probable top-3 option, giving him some bargain potential at his WR-104 ADP. Meanwhile, Kelvin Harmon (WR-112) caught 22 balls for 290 yards after the Week 10 bye, offering glimpses of WR5 potential. But expect a year-2 regression with rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR-98) on board. Gandy-Golden is arguably more talented and should overtake Harmon as soon as August. Of course, we should also keep an eye on Antonio Gibson, as the coaching staff could convert him into Haskins' #2 target. It's simply still too soon to know.
At TE, the Jordan Reed era came to an unceremonious end (as most "ends" do in the NFL). Rarely has a tight end with this much promise had this much difficulty staying on the field for so many years (though Tyler Eifert comes to mind). Consider that in his last "full" season (2018), Reed amassed 120 fantasy points in 13 games--good for third most on the team and 14th most among all TEs. But after seven concussions, he was cut loose by the Redskins. Although it's hard to blame them, it's also hard to imagine they'll find anyone who can be fantasy relevant this season. Neither Jeremy Sprinkle, Hale Hentges, nor Logan Thomas are going to land on many fantasy rosters. That leaves Randy Moss's son, Thaddeus, as the only Washington TE worth considering. His TE-36 ADP will pop if he can claim the #1 job. If you're drafting early, he's absolutely worth a nothing-to-lose, final-round flyer.