Three games today. A lot on the line for many of you. So let's get to it.
Game 1 features two bottom-8 pass defenses: Houston and Tampa Bay. As I pointed out last week, Deshaun Watson's team TD share is through the roof. Facing a tough Bucs run D, don't count on Carlos Hyde to replicate his surprising (to me) Week 15 performance. I'm eyeing 8+ TDs between these two teams, with both Watson and Jameis Winston comfortably posting QB1 numbers. The only risk with Winston is whether head coach Bruce Arians' insistence on feeding his RBs will translate on the field. But I don't see Winston sliding into game manager mode; that's never been him or this offense. Because Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out, Breshad Perriman pretty much has to start in fantasy leagues because of his recent dominance. And as you read yesterday, Justin Watson is one of my favorite bargain WRs--a great bet for 10+.
Beyond those two, Cyril Grayson has the best upside as a speedy yet entirely unproven receiver who could earn 20-30 snaps, while Ishmael Hyman offers "safer" WR4/5 potential. And O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate are terrific starts if you don't have a sure-fire top-8 TE. On the ground, Ronald Jones is still the better bet over the TD-dependent Peyton Barber. But admittedly, I have no sense of whether Jones will actually prove to be startable. For example, if you need a #2 RB because your next best option is Jamaal Williams, I'd roll with the higher-volume Jones.
The Texans present simpler equations: If Will Fuller is good to go, he and Kenny Stills will serve as competent WR3 flyers while DeAndre Hopkins does his usual extraordinary work. And per yesterday, Jordan Akins is a lesser version of Howard and Brate--the ultimate dart throw in deep leagues in the hope that he catches at least one of Watson's 3+ TD passes. And per above, I'm not touching Hyde unless I don't have a reliable top-25 RB; the same goes for the inconsistently utilized Duke Johnson.
Game 2 appears to be headed for the opposite result: a low-scoring, run-heavy contest featuring two of the league's best pass defenses. The problem is that as bad as New England looked against Joe Mixon in Cincy last week, I believe they'll adjust against Devin Singletary and Frank Gore. Plus, they've yielded only six rushing TDs all season--second-best in the NFL behind Minnesota (which is partly why I'm hesitant about Jamaal Williams and concerned about Aaron Jones). A volume-heavy Singletary should still produce 10+ PPR points, but 15 seems like a stretch. And for you deep-leaguers, in his last three games Gore has gained 32 yards on 23 carries to go with one reception. He's on pace to endure his least efficient campaign ever and probably won't finish in the top 45 this week.
Through the air, Josh Allen is a decent-floor QB2. In this matchup, I don't see how he'll help anyone win this week. Same goes for John Brown and Cole Beasley. Maybe one of them will get a lucky. The Patriots are one of two teams giving up less than 200 passing yards per contest. Brown's averaging five catches a game. Beasley, a little over four. These are not high-volume guys. You're hoping for a score or a couple big plays. That's a lot to hope for today. Back to Allen: Did you know he has the worst completion percentage among the top 32 fantasy QBs? He's also averaging only 18 completions per game. Everything has to click for Allen, Brown, and Beasley to be playable. Look elsewhere.
For New England, Tom Brady has exceeded 13.4 fantasy points only once in his past six games, and during this stretch his completion percentage has been even worse than Josh Allen's. If you're starting him, you're bolder than me, though Bill Belichick often zigs when opponents expect him to zag, so who knows. The one seemingly safe receiver, Julian Edelman, has been marred by injuries and was on the field for only 62% of snaps last weekend. I like him cracking the top 30; the top 20 seems less likely. No other Patriot receiver is trustworthy enough to start, though you've got to believe someone will rise up; one often does. As with previous weeks, James White is one of the safest all-around bets--probably the safest in today's game. Sony Michel will be as TD-dependent as ever. So if you're keeping score at home, I'd start White in nearly every league as an RB3+, Edelman as a WR3+, and Singletary as an RB3/4. The rest are all incredibly risky.
Finally, the Rams vs. Niners: the third of three fascinating contests--one sure to be high-scoring, the other sure to be a defensive battle, and then this one . . . who knows. Richard Sherman will be back, further dampening the reliability of the Rams' wideouts. Cooper Kupp is one of the hardest receivers to read in an offense that hasn't been clicking much the past 20-24 games. Yeah, a long time. I can't comfortably recommend starting him, Robert Woods, or Brandin Cooks as WR2s. Kupp and Woods are best left to the WR3 streaming heap. And I've been wrong about Tyler Higbee the past couple weeks. If he keep netting double-digit targets, he'll probably be the only receiver worth starting despite Gerald Everett's imminent return. Jared Goff won't finish in the top 16.
Meanwhile, Todd "Something Has to Be Wrong" Gurley is probably the most TD-dependent RB1 since LeGarrette Blount. He's missed only one game this year, which is one or two fewer than I expected this summer. Still, among the top-20 fantasy RBs, only Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs are averaging fewer catches per game--inexplicable for a guy who caught 59 and 64 in his previous two seasons. He's also the only top-20 RB not named Le'Veon to be plodding for under 4.0 yards per carry. Most experts rank him as a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1. I think he'll have trouble mustering more than eight points. Don't let him crush your fantasy dreams.
Heading into last week, the Rams had a fairly reliable top-10 defense. The struggling Cowboys exposed them on the ground. Will the "good" Rams D return? I can't answer that question with confidence. But since all of us are gambling with our decisions, if you're wondering whether to start Raheem Mostert as an RB3+, sure, he's got as good a shot as any NFL RB playing today to achieve top-30 production. George Kittle has to start, of course. And if Jalen Ramsey shadows Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel offers desperation value. And one of my favorite preseason bargains, Jimmy Garoppolo, has one of the most universal rankings of any non-QB1 you'll ever see. Fantasy Pros' compilation of experts place him no better than 14th and no worse than 19th. He's the quintessential deep-league streamer. Given his proven upside, and despite his proven downside, he's a better risk to take than Josh Allen, Tom Brady, and any number of other QB2s.
Game 1 features two bottom-8 pass defenses: Houston and Tampa Bay. As I pointed out last week, Deshaun Watson's team TD share is through the roof. Facing a tough Bucs run D, don't count on Carlos Hyde to replicate his surprising (to me) Week 15 performance. I'm eyeing 8+ TDs between these two teams, with both Watson and Jameis Winston comfortably posting QB1 numbers. The only risk with Winston is whether head coach Bruce Arians' insistence on feeding his RBs will translate on the field. But I don't see Winston sliding into game manager mode; that's never been him or this offense. Because Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out, Breshad Perriman pretty much has to start in fantasy leagues because of his recent dominance. And as you read yesterday, Justin Watson is one of my favorite bargain WRs--a great bet for 10+.
Beyond those two, Cyril Grayson has the best upside as a speedy yet entirely unproven receiver who could earn 20-30 snaps, while Ishmael Hyman offers "safer" WR4/5 potential. And O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate are terrific starts if you don't have a sure-fire top-8 TE. On the ground, Ronald Jones is still the better bet over the TD-dependent Peyton Barber. But admittedly, I have no sense of whether Jones will actually prove to be startable. For example, if you need a #2 RB because your next best option is Jamaal Williams, I'd roll with the higher-volume Jones.
The Texans present simpler equations: If Will Fuller is good to go, he and Kenny Stills will serve as competent WR3 flyers while DeAndre Hopkins does his usual extraordinary work. And per yesterday, Jordan Akins is a lesser version of Howard and Brate--the ultimate dart throw in deep leagues in the hope that he catches at least one of Watson's 3+ TD passes. And per above, I'm not touching Hyde unless I don't have a reliable top-25 RB; the same goes for the inconsistently utilized Duke Johnson.
Game 2 appears to be headed for the opposite result: a low-scoring, run-heavy contest featuring two of the league's best pass defenses. The problem is that as bad as New England looked against Joe Mixon in Cincy last week, I believe they'll adjust against Devin Singletary and Frank Gore. Plus, they've yielded only six rushing TDs all season--second-best in the NFL behind Minnesota (which is partly why I'm hesitant about Jamaal Williams and concerned about Aaron Jones). A volume-heavy Singletary should still produce 10+ PPR points, but 15 seems like a stretch. And for you deep-leaguers, in his last three games Gore has gained 32 yards on 23 carries to go with one reception. He's on pace to endure his least efficient campaign ever and probably won't finish in the top 45 this week.
Through the air, Josh Allen is a decent-floor QB2. In this matchup, I don't see how he'll help anyone win this week. Same goes for John Brown and Cole Beasley. Maybe one of them will get a lucky. The Patriots are one of two teams giving up less than 200 passing yards per contest. Brown's averaging five catches a game. Beasley, a little over four. These are not high-volume guys. You're hoping for a score or a couple big plays. That's a lot to hope for today. Back to Allen: Did you know he has the worst completion percentage among the top 32 fantasy QBs? He's also averaging only 18 completions per game. Everything has to click for Allen, Brown, and Beasley to be playable. Look elsewhere.
For New England, Tom Brady has exceeded 13.4 fantasy points only once in his past six games, and during this stretch his completion percentage has been even worse than Josh Allen's. If you're starting him, you're bolder than me, though Bill Belichick often zigs when opponents expect him to zag, so who knows. The one seemingly safe receiver, Julian Edelman, has been marred by injuries and was on the field for only 62% of snaps last weekend. I like him cracking the top 30; the top 20 seems less likely. No other Patriot receiver is trustworthy enough to start, though you've got to believe someone will rise up; one often does. As with previous weeks, James White is one of the safest all-around bets--probably the safest in today's game. Sony Michel will be as TD-dependent as ever. So if you're keeping score at home, I'd start White in nearly every league as an RB3+, Edelman as a WR3+, and Singletary as an RB3/4. The rest are all incredibly risky.
Finally, the Rams vs. Niners: the third of three fascinating contests--one sure to be high-scoring, the other sure to be a defensive battle, and then this one . . . who knows. Richard Sherman will be back, further dampening the reliability of the Rams' wideouts. Cooper Kupp is one of the hardest receivers to read in an offense that hasn't been clicking much the past 20-24 games. Yeah, a long time. I can't comfortably recommend starting him, Robert Woods, or Brandin Cooks as WR2s. Kupp and Woods are best left to the WR3 streaming heap. And I've been wrong about Tyler Higbee the past couple weeks. If he keep netting double-digit targets, he'll probably be the only receiver worth starting despite Gerald Everett's imminent return. Jared Goff won't finish in the top 16.
Meanwhile, Todd "Something Has to Be Wrong" Gurley is probably the most TD-dependent RB1 since LeGarrette Blount. He's missed only one game this year, which is one or two fewer than I expected this summer. Still, among the top-20 fantasy RBs, only Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs are averaging fewer catches per game--inexplicable for a guy who caught 59 and 64 in his previous two seasons. He's also the only top-20 RB not named Le'Veon to be plodding for under 4.0 yards per carry. Most experts rank him as a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1. I think he'll have trouble mustering more than eight points. Don't let him crush your fantasy dreams.
Heading into last week, the Rams had a fairly reliable top-10 defense. The struggling Cowboys exposed them on the ground. Will the "good" Rams D return? I can't answer that question with confidence. But since all of us are gambling with our decisions, if you're wondering whether to start Raheem Mostert as an RB3+, sure, he's got as good a shot as any NFL RB playing today to achieve top-30 production. George Kittle has to start, of course. And if Jalen Ramsey shadows Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel offers desperation value. And one of my favorite preseason bargains, Jimmy Garoppolo, has one of the most universal rankings of any non-QB1 you'll ever see. Fantasy Pros' compilation of experts place him no better than 14th and no worse than 19th. He's the quintessential deep-league streamer. Given his proven upside, and despite his proven downside, he's a better risk to take than Josh Allen, Tom Brady, and any number of other QB2s.