My weekly contrarian bargains and busts are coming a day early, thanks to the short-lived return of Saturday NFL football. Last week I hit five of 12, lowering my season numbers to 103-for-174 (59%). As always, there are highly unconventional predictions that go against universal expert opinion, based on Fantasy Pros' compilation of experts. In the preseason that list of experts numbers around 140 people. These days it's around 60-70 (the expected drop-off). Still, that's a lot of people to go against. So as always, take these picks for what they are: against-the-grain, sometimes seemingly outlandish predictions. But more often than not, they've hit.
Kicking things off at QB, rookie Dwayne Haskins has been statistically much worse than former starter Case Keenum, which didn't seem possible when Haskins took over midseason. That said, he'll face a Giants secondary that was among the league's worst *before* they ditched Janoris Jenkins. Last week minus Jenkins, Giant opponent Ryan Fitzpatrick connected on five 20+ yard pass plays--based on my quick research, only the second he's done that all year. I'm expecting a career-best day for Haskins despite dealing with a depleted receiving corps. Ignore his QB-26 ranking. And despite Jacoby Brissett's limitations, his QB-24 ranking suggests last week's clunker in New Orleans is the new norm. He was a top-16 performer in three of his previous four outings--without the benefit of T.Y. Hilton--and should return streaming value this weekend at home against the Panthers.
On the flip side, the Bears haven't allowed top-10 fantasy QB production all year. Patrick Mahomes (QB-4) is one of those "start your studs" options. Really, would anyone suggest benching him? No expert ranks him worse than #7. I'll say he'll be worse than everyone expects, and if you have a fairly safe QB1 with big upside, I'd rather roll with that guy.
At RB, as always, I can't take advantage of injuries. So I can't be "bold" and say Dalvin Cook will comfortably outperform his RB-60 ranking, and then hope he plays. That's now how this works. So let's start with the consistently underutilized Myles Gaskin (RB-51) vs. the Bengals' basement-level run D. He deserves more love than Patrick Laird and should net 10+ touches. I also like the PPR-friendly Nyheim Hines (RB-43), the largely forgotten Jalen Richard (RB-42), and the consistently useful Tarik Cohen (RB-30).
On the flip side, the nearly always dominant Zeke Elliott (RB-2) won't finish in the top 10, while the frequently muted Alvin Kamara (RB-7) won't finish in the top 14.
At wideout, Steven Sims is a massive oversight at his WR-70 ranking. He's been seeing plenty of targets and will once again join the starting lineup. Justin Watson (WR-53) is in a similar boat thanks to Chris Godwin's Week 15 injury. I'm also content taking a flyer on T.Y. Hilton at his WR-35 ranking. On the flip side, with a QB shift in Carolina, D.J. Moore (WR-7) is more of a 10-12 point producer than an 18-20 point producer. That's what you get when an untested rookie takes the helm. Tyreek Hill (WR-6) also makes me nervous as a WR1.
At TE, facing the anemic Bucs pass defense, Jordan Akins (TE-29) is a nice-ceiling, nothing-to-lose option if you don't have a top-14 tight end. Meanwhile, both Tampa Bay tight ends are undervalued, with the generally available Cameron Brate (TE-22) as the best bargain. On the flip side, Jacob Hollister (TE-9) has been generally unusable in three of his past four games and isn't likely to hit double-digits.
Kicking things off at QB, rookie Dwayne Haskins has been statistically much worse than former starter Case Keenum, which didn't seem possible when Haskins took over midseason. That said, he'll face a Giants secondary that was among the league's worst *before* they ditched Janoris Jenkins. Last week minus Jenkins, Giant opponent Ryan Fitzpatrick connected on five 20+ yard pass plays--based on my quick research, only the second he's done that all year. I'm expecting a career-best day for Haskins despite dealing with a depleted receiving corps. Ignore his QB-26 ranking. And despite Jacoby Brissett's limitations, his QB-24 ranking suggests last week's clunker in New Orleans is the new norm. He was a top-16 performer in three of his previous four outings--without the benefit of T.Y. Hilton--and should return streaming value this weekend at home against the Panthers.
On the flip side, the Bears haven't allowed top-10 fantasy QB production all year. Patrick Mahomes (QB-4) is one of those "start your studs" options. Really, would anyone suggest benching him? No expert ranks him worse than #7. I'll say he'll be worse than everyone expects, and if you have a fairly safe QB1 with big upside, I'd rather roll with that guy.
At RB, as always, I can't take advantage of injuries. So I can't be "bold" and say Dalvin Cook will comfortably outperform his RB-60 ranking, and then hope he plays. That's now how this works. So let's start with the consistently underutilized Myles Gaskin (RB-51) vs. the Bengals' basement-level run D. He deserves more love than Patrick Laird and should net 10+ touches. I also like the PPR-friendly Nyheim Hines (RB-43), the largely forgotten Jalen Richard (RB-42), and the consistently useful Tarik Cohen (RB-30).
On the flip side, the nearly always dominant Zeke Elliott (RB-2) won't finish in the top 10, while the frequently muted Alvin Kamara (RB-7) won't finish in the top 14.
At wideout, Steven Sims is a massive oversight at his WR-70 ranking. He's been seeing plenty of targets and will once again join the starting lineup. Justin Watson (WR-53) is in a similar boat thanks to Chris Godwin's Week 15 injury. I'm also content taking a flyer on T.Y. Hilton at his WR-35 ranking. On the flip side, with a QB shift in Carolina, D.J. Moore (WR-7) is more of a 10-12 point producer than an 18-20 point producer. That's what you get when an untested rookie takes the helm. Tyreek Hill (WR-6) also makes me nervous as a WR1.
At TE, facing the anemic Bucs pass defense, Jordan Akins (TE-29) is a nice-ceiling, nothing-to-lose option if you don't have a top-14 tight end. Meanwhile, both Tampa Bay tight ends are undervalued, with the generally available Cameron Brate (TE-22) as the best bargain. On the flip side, Jacob Hollister (TE-9) has been generally unusable in three of his past four games and isn't likely to hit double-digits.