As with most Thursday contests this season, last night played out largely as expected. Yesterday morning I highlighted the four "obvious" fantasy starts for Baltimore: Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Marquise Brown, and Mark Andrews. All four scored, with Jackson enjoying the best fantasy day of his career. I also issued a sharp warning about starting Le'Veon Bell, and he proved once again why the Jets reportedly want to trade him. If they used him more in the passing game, he'd be a weekly starter regardless of the matchup. Robby Anderson also performed as expected. On the flip side, I missed badly on Justin Tucker and Jamison "Where Have You Been?" Crowder.
Of course, New York never had a chance, though they looked better than anticipated in the first half while nearly pulling within seven points right before halftime. But this Baltimore squad is better in almost every facet, and they simply wore down a depleted Jets D. Thru 14 weeks the Ravens's offense led the NFL in time of possession (34:24), more than two minutes above the #2 team, and the highest mark in 18 seasons. Yesterday it was too easy for them on offense. They scored too quickly, too often, and as a result trailed in time of possession for most of the night before pushing above the 30-minute mark in the final two minutes. They haven't finished under 30 minutes since October.
Baltimore will wrap up the season in Cleveland and home against Pittsburgh. Assuming they beat the Browns to clinch the AFC's #1 seed, expect most/all key starters like Jackson, Ingram, Marquise, and Andrews to sit Week 17.
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Some people in this business claim if you have a great player, you really have to start him. I don't subscribe to this thinking. The "start your studs" strategy is actually a non-strategy. It's bad advice masked as safe advice masked as enlightened advice. The "safe" part is key. Most experts try to avoid looking stupid. So urging managers to start RB1s and WR1s keeps them from veering too far off the norm. If they're wrong, well, just about everyone else was wrong, so no harm done.
Except there is harm--to your team . . . to your title hopes.
Tomorrow I'll offer my normal Saturday contrarian bargains and busts. One of my busts is Dalvin Cook, who's the universal #4 RB this week. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, he's as elite as an RB can get. So what's the problem? He's slumping, his opponent is tough, and Alexander Mattison is versatile and capable, among other factors. He's facing an uphill battle for RB1 production. 117 of 120 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place him in the top 8, with just about everyone tagging him in the top 5.
Last season Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers were top-6 QBs. Yet they both faced tough Week 15 opponents: the Patriots and Bears, respectively. Other quarterbacks had softer matchups, like Sam Darnold against Houston. Ben and Rodgers earned only QB2 production that week, while Darnold finished #3.
Obviously I'm cherry-picking here. Plenty of terrific QBs did well that week, and plenty of bad ones did poorly. But "start your studs" ignores the fact that a fairly sizable chunk of seemingly must-start players fall short of even minimal expert expectations. You've come too far to use "Sure, why not" as the basis for setting your lineup.
Of course, New York never had a chance, though they looked better than anticipated in the first half while nearly pulling within seven points right before halftime. But this Baltimore squad is better in almost every facet, and they simply wore down a depleted Jets D. Thru 14 weeks the Ravens's offense led the NFL in time of possession (34:24), more than two minutes above the #2 team, and the highest mark in 18 seasons. Yesterday it was too easy for them on offense. They scored too quickly, too often, and as a result trailed in time of possession for most of the night before pushing above the 30-minute mark in the final two minutes. They haven't finished under 30 minutes since October.
Baltimore will wrap up the season in Cleveland and home against Pittsburgh. Assuming they beat the Browns to clinch the AFC's #1 seed, expect most/all key starters like Jackson, Ingram, Marquise, and Andrews to sit Week 17.
---
Some people in this business claim if you have a great player, you really have to start him. I don't subscribe to this thinking. The "start your studs" strategy is actually a non-strategy. It's bad advice masked as safe advice masked as enlightened advice. The "safe" part is key. Most experts try to avoid looking stupid. So urging managers to start RB1s and WR1s keeps them from veering too far off the norm. If they're wrong, well, just about everyone else was wrong, so no harm done.
Except there is harm--to your team . . . to your title hopes.
Tomorrow I'll offer my normal Saturday contrarian bargains and busts. One of my busts is Dalvin Cook, who's the universal #4 RB this week. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, he's as elite as an RB can get. So what's the problem? He's slumping, his opponent is tough, and Alexander Mattison is versatile and capable, among other factors. He's facing an uphill battle for RB1 production. 117 of 120 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros place him in the top 8, with just about everyone tagging him in the top 5.
Last season Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers were top-6 QBs. Yet they both faced tough Week 15 opponents: the Patriots and Bears, respectively. Other quarterbacks had softer matchups, like Sam Darnold against Houston. Ben and Rodgers earned only QB2 production that week, while Darnold finished #3.
Obviously I'm cherry-picking here. Plenty of terrific QBs did well that week, and plenty of bad ones did poorly. But "start your studs" ignores the fact that a fairly sizable chunk of seemingly must-start players fall short of even minimal expert expectations. You've come too far to use "Sure, why not" as the basis for setting your lineup.