On Tuesday mornings when I start looking ahead to the coming week, and see that my opponent has a good player going Thursday night, I usually think, "Dang, if he goes off, what a crappy way to start the week." And if instead only I have a good player on Thursday, I usually think, "Dang, if he tanks, what a crappy way to start the week."
That's especially true in the postseason, when any game could mean the difference between advancing and losing. Given the choice between two comparable players, some managers will start the one playing on Thursday, just they have a reason to watch, or because a case could be made that TNF scoring might be higher than in other games (it was last year, by 3-4 points). Others consciously avoid going with borderline fantasy starters Thursday nights, and based on this year's numbers (4-5 fewer points per TNF game vs. other contests), I can see why.
These kinds of deliberations or second-guessing can drive managers crazy. I know, because I get these questions all the time on Facebook and Twitter and Gmail. The FF4W commenters see it too. Starting a guy seems so obvious, except your gut is telling you otherwise, or his worrisome injury "isn't serious enough to keep him out," or he lost carries the previous week to a backup and is no longer a locked-in bellcow.
When these decisions have to be made Thursday, the stakes are different. If your player bombs, you can't seek simultaneous solace in another player in another game thriving. There is no other game. You're stuck with two catches for 13 yards out of your WR2/3, or a 170-1-2 line heading into the fourth quarter for your supposedly safe QB1.
I've been there. We've all been there. And in the playoffs, we just don't want to regret a decision that could almost single-handedly cost us a title.
Tonight's contest offers seemingly no-brainer options. The Jets' D on paper, when healthy, should be solid. But it's been decimated by injuries. In the last two weeks they've given up 22 points to Cincinnati and 21 to Miami. Now they're facing the league's top offense on the road. Can anyone foresee them holding Baltimore to under 35 points? I mean, it's possible. Yet it's unlikely. And that unlikeliness should be enough to start all of the obvious Ravens with confidence. Lamar Jackson? Of course. Mark Ingram? Ditto. Mark Andrews? How could you not? The boom-bust Marquise Brown, who's sporting negative-1 yard in the last two weeks? If you don't have a reliable top-25 WR, roll the dice on one big play.
There's also a decent chance that game-flow will favor Gus Edwards, and that Willie Snead could find the end zone again. Start them if you have an RB3 or WR3? Nope, too risky for me. Start them if your best available player is an RB4 or WR4? Sure, because as I often say, 5-7 points won't help you. When my players have low yardage ceilings, I play for touchdowns instead. On a night that could see as many as six Raven scores, there are worse risks to take.
And of course, start Justin Tucker if you have him. I do, and am banking on 10+ points: six extra points and a 40-something yard field goal. Or maybe I'll get lucky with three field goals. The point is, in this high-powered offense, his floor is as good as any kicker's.
As for the Jets, their offense has struggled since enjoying three consecutive 34-point outbursts. They scored six points against the Bengals; the previous low for a Cincy opponent this season was 13. And they racked up 22 against the Dolphins. On the year they've averaged 20 points against Miami, while the Fins' other opponents have averaged over 32. The offensive line is a problem. So is Le'Veon Bell.
Of every player going tonight, I'm guessing managers' most agonizing decision is whether to start Bell. Baltimore is #2 in the NFL in pass defense and top-10 in run defense. Darnold probably won't get much going. Robby Anderson is borderline startable at best. No other receiver has been consistent enough in the past month. But all eyes will be on Bell, who reportedly the Jets are giving up on. What incentive do they have to run him into the ground? If he gets hurt, his offseason trade value plummets. I can easily see the Ravens jumping out to a 14-point first-quarter lead, then 24 by halftime. Then Ty Montgomery starts the second half.
I would treat Bell like I would Devonta Freeman in San Francisco this weekend. If he somehow scores, good for you. If he doesn't, I doubt he'll be an RB3.
As I've written many times, what a fascinating and sad situation in New York. So much promise heading into the season. If the team had spent tens of millions to shore up their holes rather than overpay for a (I believe) system back, they'd be around 7-6 instead of 5-8. The writing is already on the wall for Bell. Tonight might simply seal the deal.
That's especially true in the postseason, when any game could mean the difference between advancing and losing. Given the choice between two comparable players, some managers will start the one playing on Thursday, just they have a reason to watch, or because a case could be made that TNF scoring might be higher than in other games (it was last year, by 3-4 points). Others consciously avoid going with borderline fantasy starters Thursday nights, and based on this year's numbers (4-5 fewer points per TNF game vs. other contests), I can see why.
These kinds of deliberations or second-guessing can drive managers crazy. I know, because I get these questions all the time on Facebook and Twitter and Gmail. The FF4W commenters see it too. Starting a guy seems so obvious, except your gut is telling you otherwise, or his worrisome injury "isn't serious enough to keep him out," or he lost carries the previous week to a backup and is no longer a locked-in bellcow.
When these decisions have to be made Thursday, the stakes are different. If your player bombs, you can't seek simultaneous solace in another player in another game thriving. There is no other game. You're stuck with two catches for 13 yards out of your WR2/3, or a 170-1-2 line heading into the fourth quarter for your supposedly safe QB1.
I've been there. We've all been there. And in the playoffs, we just don't want to regret a decision that could almost single-handedly cost us a title.
Tonight's contest offers seemingly no-brainer options. The Jets' D on paper, when healthy, should be solid. But it's been decimated by injuries. In the last two weeks they've given up 22 points to Cincinnati and 21 to Miami. Now they're facing the league's top offense on the road. Can anyone foresee them holding Baltimore to under 35 points? I mean, it's possible. Yet it's unlikely. And that unlikeliness should be enough to start all of the obvious Ravens with confidence. Lamar Jackson? Of course. Mark Ingram? Ditto. Mark Andrews? How could you not? The boom-bust Marquise Brown, who's sporting negative-1 yard in the last two weeks? If you don't have a reliable top-25 WR, roll the dice on one big play.
There's also a decent chance that game-flow will favor Gus Edwards, and that Willie Snead could find the end zone again. Start them if you have an RB3 or WR3? Nope, too risky for me. Start them if your best available player is an RB4 or WR4? Sure, because as I often say, 5-7 points won't help you. When my players have low yardage ceilings, I play for touchdowns instead. On a night that could see as many as six Raven scores, there are worse risks to take.
And of course, start Justin Tucker if you have him. I do, and am banking on 10+ points: six extra points and a 40-something yard field goal. Or maybe I'll get lucky with three field goals. The point is, in this high-powered offense, his floor is as good as any kicker's.
As for the Jets, their offense has struggled since enjoying three consecutive 34-point outbursts. They scored six points against the Bengals; the previous low for a Cincy opponent this season was 13. And they racked up 22 against the Dolphins. On the year they've averaged 20 points against Miami, while the Fins' other opponents have averaged over 32. The offensive line is a problem. So is Le'Veon Bell.
Of every player going tonight, I'm guessing managers' most agonizing decision is whether to start Bell. Baltimore is #2 in the NFL in pass defense and top-10 in run defense. Darnold probably won't get much going. Robby Anderson is borderline startable at best. No other receiver has been consistent enough in the past month. But all eyes will be on Bell, who reportedly the Jets are giving up on. What incentive do they have to run him into the ground? If he gets hurt, his offseason trade value plummets. I can easily see the Ravens jumping out to a 14-point first-quarter lead, then 24 by halftime. Then Ty Montgomery starts the second half.
I would treat Bell like I would Devonta Freeman in San Francisco this weekend. If he somehow scores, good for you. If he doesn't, I doubt he'll be an RB3.
As I've written many times, what a fascinating and sad situation in New York. So much promise heading into the season. If the team had spent tens of millions to shore up their holes rather than overpay for a (I believe) system back, they'd be around 7-6 instead of 5-8. The writing is already on the wall for Bell. Tonight might simply seal the deal.