Three more weekends of football. Three more batches of contrarian bargains and busts. As always, these picks go against what nearly every expert believes. On the season I'm 98-for-162 (60%).
Kicking things off at QB, Kyle Allen's consensus Week 15 ranking is 26th, which makes no sense to me. Zero experts rank him in the top 18. He's been top-15 in four of his last five games, usually in pretty tough matchups. While the opposing Seahawks are strong, it's reasonable to expect a 225-2 line from Allen, particularly with repeated dump-offs to Christian McCaffrey. And in Cincinnati, Tom Brady will face his softest defense in a while. The 42-year-old has only nine touchdowns in his last seven games and appears to be unstartable with a QB-14 ADP. But let's face it: coming off its first home loss in two years and with only two wins in their last five games, New England's putting up 30+ this weekend. I like Brady's odds.
On the flip side, Jameis Winston's QB-7 ranking is based entirely on two factors: his lacking opponent (the Lions), and an incredible run of 10-of-11 games with 17+ fantasy points. His ceiling is as high as anyone's. But his fractured throwing hand creates unnecessary risk.
At RB, the seemingly safe Latavius Murray (RB-40) should get 8+ touches and could earn split work with Alvin Kamara thanks to strong recent play. Elsewhere, Chris Thompson (RB-39) should net 10+ points with Derrius Guice sidelined. Finally, gimme the Bucs' two primary RBs, Peyton Barber (RB-47) and Ronald Jones (RB-32), at least one of whom should notch a score or two.
On the flip side, how are we all feeling about Dalvin Cook? Must-start, right? Well, as I wrote yesterday, his consensus RB-4 ranking this week suggests he's unbenchable. I'm not about to say you should go that far. But he won't be a top-16 RB, meaning he'll be a liability if he's your #1 RB. He hasn't eclipsed 3.7 YPC in his past five contests, his passing-game usage is down, and the opposing Chargers have been fairly strong against the run. The loss of Alexander Mattison hurts my credibility on this one, but I'm sticking with it.
At WR, Danny Amendola (WR-45) is one of my favorite bargains of the month, despite not exceeding nine fantasy points in any of his last six games. Why the bullishness? No Marvin Jones, no T.J. Hockenson, and a terrible Tampa Bay pass defense. Amendola is primed for a 15+ point day. On the flip side, Allen Robinson is on a roll with three straight 22+ points performances. Only insanity would make me write what I'm about to write, right? ARob (WR-10) is headed for a regression in Green Bay. Mitch Trubisky & company will be held in check.
At TE, O.J. Howard is undervalued at his TE-18 ranking. He's re-emerged as one of the NFL's top young tight ends, and Mike Evans' absence should only cement his favorable usage. On the flip side, Week 13 is looking like an outlier for Jack Doyle, who's somehow ranked #6 this week. He needs to score to finish in the top 10; I don't like those odds.
Kicking things off at QB, Kyle Allen's consensus Week 15 ranking is 26th, which makes no sense to me. Zero experts rank him in the top 18. He's been top-15 in four of his last five games, usually in pretty tough matchups. While the opposing Seahawks are strong, it's reasonable to expect a 225-2 line from Allen, particularly with repeated dump-offs to Christian McCaffrey. And in Cincinnati, Tom Brady will face his softest defense in a while. The 42-year-old has only nine touchdowns in his last seven games and appears to be unstartable with a QB-14 ADP. But let's face it: coming off its first home loss in two years and with only two wins in their last five games, New England's putting up 30+ this weekend. I like Brady's odds.
On the flip side, Jameis Winston's QB-7 ranking is based entirely on two factors: his lacking opponent (the Lions), and an incredible run of 10-of-11 games with 17+ fantasy points. His ceiling is as high as anyone's. But his fractured throwing hand creates unnecessary risk.
At RB, the seemingly safe Latavius Murray (RB-40) should get 8+ touches and could earn split work with Alvin Kamara thanks to strong recent play. Elsewhere, Chris Thompson (RB-39) should net 10+ points with Derrius Guice sidelined. Finally, gimme the Bucs' two primary RBs, Peyton Barber (RB-47) and Ronald Jones (RB-32), at least one of whom should notch a score or two.
On the flip side, how are we all feeling about Dalvin Cook? Must-start, right? Well, as I wrote yesterday, his consensus RB-4 ranking this week suggests he's unbenchable. I'm not about to say you should go that far. But he won't be a top-16 RB, meaning he'll be a liability if he's your #1 RB. He hasn't eclipsed 3.7 YPC in his past five contests, his passing-game usage is down, and the opposing Chargers have been fairly strong against the run. The loss of Alexander Mattison hurts my credibility on this one, but I'm sticking with it.
At WR, Danny Amendola (WR-45) is one of my favorite bargains of the month, despite not exceeding nine fantasy points in any of his last six games. Why the bullishness? No Marvin Jones, no T.J. Hockenson, and a terrible Tampa Bay pass defense. Amendola is primed for a 15+ point day. On the flip side, Allen Robinson is on a roll with three straight 22+ points performances. Only insanity would make me write what I'm about to write, right? ARob (WR-10) is headed for a regression in Green Bay. Mitch Trubisky & company will be held in check.
At TE, O.J. Howard is undervalued at his TE-18 ranking. He's re-emerged as one of the NFL's top young tight ends, and Mike Evans' absence should only cement his favorable usage. On the flip side, Week 13 is looking like an outlier for Jack Doyle, who's somehow ranked #6 this week. He needs to score to finish in the top 10; I don't like those odds.