Tonight's a tough game to kick off a fantasy week, especially in the win-or-go-home climate of Week 14.
It doesn't look that way on paper. The Cowboys lead the league in offensive yards per game with 432.8--the highest mark since the 2013 Broncos. They have the #4 fantasy QB, the #7 RB, the #7 WR, and the #10 TE. (And as some might remember, Jason Witten was my much-hyped preseason #1 TE bargain because of a ridiculous consensus TE-25 ranking.) Basically, aside from Zeke Elliott, wherever you drafted a Cowboy this summer--whether Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb, or Witten--you received exceptional value.
Yet on the field, their season has been a minor disaster. A deceptively strong 3-0 start and an 0-6 record vs. teams with winning records have defined this team. As is often the case with underachievers, most of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. They are better than their 6-6 record. That said, they have to beat Philly on the road Week 16 to essentially lock up the NFC East. If they do win that game, they could squeeze in at 7-9 even if the Eagles won two of their other three games. Or Dallas could finish strong and wind up 10-6. Either way, they're looking at a 4-seed in this ultra top-heavy conference.
Tonight they'll face a Bears defense that's been solid, but not elite. The many fantasy managers who grabbed Chicago as the first DST off the board haven't gotten a good return on investment. They're averaging 2.3 sacks per game vs. 3.1 last year, and 1.3 turnovers vs. 2.3 last year. That said, they're giving up slightly fewer points per game and remain strong against the pass (86.4 opposing QB rating) and the run (3.7 YPC). And aside from a Week 7 beatdown at the hands of the Saints, they've been very tough at home, giving up only 12 points per contest.
It's tough to bench Prescott, Zeke, Amari, and possibly even a steady WR3 like Gallup. They've gotten you this far. Surely they'll give you a nice early lead. But I'm more cautious. Dak's expert-consensus QB-8 Week 14 ranking is a ceiling, not a floor; he'll be lucky to crack the top 10. Zeke's RB-2 ranking is way out of line; he's also a bad bet as an RB1. But Amari's WR-20 and Gallup's WR-29 rankings are realistic. If your receiving corps is thin, it makes sense to take a chance. If you have 3-4 reliable top-20 WRs, Amari carries unnecessary risk. It's apples-to-oranges, but I benched OBJ last week. WR2 or even WR1 production shouldn't compel us to start someone every week "just because." I'm not a fan of the set-it-and-forget-it non-strategy. If you'd be happy with 10-14 points, get Amari in there. If you desperately need 8-10, Gallup should produce. If you want to hold out for more, I'd bench them.
As for the Bears' offense, what a disaster. They're third-worst in yards per game thanks to bottom-6 marks in rushing yards and passing yards. I've shared this before: Mitch Trubisky isn't running the ball like he did last year. Not sure why. In 2018 he averaged 30 rushing yards a game. His 7.2 carries per contest were the second most behind Lamar Jackson. This season he's averaging only 7.3 rushing yards on barely two carries. While it's hard to call Mitch a "dual-threat" quarterback, the reality is that he's been far worse as a pure pocket passer with comparable or even better weapons.
To win tonight, Chicago's running game has to beat back a respectable Dallas run D that's yielding a decent 4.1 YPC. The Cowboys have been brutal to opposing #1 wideouts, making Allen Robinson--one of my favorite Week 13 bargains--a likely bust at his WR-16 ranking. Someone asked me about Anthony Miller the other day before I learned Taylor Gabriel would be sidelined. Yes, Miller or Javon Wims are solid dart throws if you don't have a reliable WR3+. But appreciate the risk of starting a non-#1 receiver in this offense. While Miller has turned around his disastrous sophomore campaign with three straight high-volume outings, he's done this against the Rams, Giants, and Lions. The Cowboys present an entirely different challenge. And if/when Chicago gets in close, expect David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Robinson, or Jesper Horsted to get the main looks.
Back to the running game: Montgomery needs to touch it 20+ times; he hasn't exceeded 18 since Week 8. I'm expecting Chicago's defense to keep this close enough where they can commit to the run. Montgomery should at least match his RB-22 ranking, while Tarik Cohen (RB-32) is a fairly safe RB3+.
Chicago realistically has to win out to nab a wild card, and only if Minnesota crumbles. They'll face off Week 17. But before then the Bears have to beat Dallas, Green Bay, and Kansas City. My pre-Week 2 prediction of an "8-8 record at best" remains on target regardless of what happens tonight. And if they lose, don't be surprised if they finish 6-10 and try to trade Trubisky in the offseason.
It doesn't look that way on paper. The Cowboys lead the league in offensive yards per game with 432.8--the highest mark since the 2013 Broncos. They have the #4 fantasy QB, the #7 RB, the #7 WR, and the #10 TE. (And as some might remember, Jason Witten was my much-hyped preseason #1 TE bargain because of a ridiculous consensus TE-25 ranking.) Basically, aside from Zeke Elliott, wherever you drafted a Cowboy this summer--whether Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb, or Witten--you received exceptional value.
Yet on the field, their season has been a minor disaster. A deceptively strong 3-0 start and an 0-6 record vs. teams with winning records have defined this team. As is often the case with underachievers, most of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. They are better than their 6-6 record. That said, they have to beat Philly on the road Week 16 to essentially lock up the NFC East. If they do win that game, they could squeeze in at 7-9 even if the Eagles won two of their other three games. Or Dallas could finish strong and wind up 10-6. Either way, they're looking at a 4-seed in this ultra top-heavy conference.
Tonight they'll face a Bears defense that's been solid, but not elite. The many fantasy managers who grabbed Chicago as the first DST off the board haven't gotten a good return on investment. They're averaging 2.3 sacks per game vs. 3.1 last year, and 1.3 turnovers vs. 2.3 last year. That said, they're giving up slightly fewer points per game and remain strong against the pass (86.4 opposing QB rating) and the run (3.7 YPC). And aside from a Week 7 beatdown at the hands of the Saints, they've been very tough at home, giving up only 12 points per contest.
It's tough to bench Prescott, Zeke, Amari, and possibly even a steady WR3 like Gallup. They've gotten you this far. Surely they'll give you a nice early lead. But I'm more cautious. Dak's expert-consensus QB-8 Week 14 ranking is a ceiling, not a floor; he'll be lucky to crack the top 10. Zeke's RB-2 ranking is way out of line; he's also a bad bet as an RB1. But Amari's WR-20 and Gallup's WR-29 rankings are realistic. If your receiving corps is thin, it makes sense to take a chance. If you have 3-4 reliable top-20 WRs, Amari carries unnecessary risk. It's apples-to-oranges, but I benched OBJ last week. WR2 or even WR1 production shouldn't compel us to start someone every week "just because." I'm not a fan of the set-it-and-forget-it non-strategy. If you'd be happy with 10-14 points, get Amari in there. If you desperately need 8-10, Gallup should produce. If you want to hold out for more, I'd bench them.
As for the Bears' offense, what a disaster. They're third-worst in yards per game thanks to bottom-6 marks in rushing yards and passing yards. I've shared this before: Mitch Trubisky isn't running the ball like he did last year. Not sure why. In 2018 he averaged 30 rushing yards a game. His 7.2 carries per contest were the second most behind Lamar Jackson. This season he's averaging only 7.3 rushing yards on barely two carries. While it's hard to call Mitch a "dual-threat" quarterback, the reality is that he's been far worse as a pure pocket passer with comparable or even better weapons.
To win tonight, Chicago's running game has to beat back a respectable Dallas run D that's yielding a decent 4.1 YPC. The Cowboys have been brutal to opposing #1 wideouts, making Allen Robinson--one of my favorite Week 13 bargains--a likely bust at his WR-16 ranking. Someone asked me about Anthony Miller the other day before I learned Taylor Gabriel would be sidelined. Yes, Miller or Javon Wims are solid dart throws if you don't have a reliable WR3+. But appreciate the risk of starting a non-#1 receiver in this offense. While Miller has turned around his disastrous sophomore campaign with three straight high-volume outings, he's done this against the Rams, Giants, and Lions. The Cowboys present an entirely different challenge. And if/when Chicago gets in close, expect David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Robinson, or Jesper Horsted to get the main looks.
Back to the running game: Montgomery needs to touch it 20+ times; he hasn't exceeded 18 since Week 8. I'm expecting Chicago's defense to keep this close enough where they can commit to the run. Montgomery should at least match his RB-22 ranking, while Tarik Cohen (RB-32) is a fairly safe RB3+.
Chicago realistically has to win out to nab a wild card, and only if Minnesota crumbles. They'll face off Week 17. But before then the Bears have to beat Dallas, Green Bay, and Kansas City. My pre-Week 2 prediction of an "8-8 record at best" remains on target regardless of what happens tonight. And if they lose, don't be surprised if they finish 6-10 and try to trade Trubisky in the offseason.