The later the season gets, the easier it is to spot bargains. In DFS 50/50 Lineups of the Week, I'm 27-16-1 (63%) since launching it in Week 2 of the 2017 season. But in the month of December I'm 9-2 (82%).
There's nothing random about that. Last week Miles Sanders ($5,800) became a bargain RB when Jordan Howard was ruled out, and Kaden Smith ($4,000) got a golden opportunity as a starter despite being a third-stringer when everyone's healthy. Rolling with these two guys in my DFS 50/50 freed up funds to invest in several elite and near-elite players, and the pair racked up an impressive 29 points combined.
There are obviously parallels to regular league play, where normally unrostered players suddenly become terrific flyers or even must-start options overnight. Yesterday's news on Le'Veon Bell's status put the focus on backup Bilal Powell and, to a lesser extent, Ty Montgomery. Powell is currently rostered in less than 1% of ESPN leagues. Managers desperate for an #2 RB have received a gift--a veteran talent whose ceiling is as high as any RB2 today.
With that in mind, today's DFS lineup is possible thanks Powell. As always, these are FanDuel lineups. If you use Draft Kings, maybe swap out Davante Adams for Allen Lazard. Oh, and I made three lineup changes while writing this. So if you think I'm ever 100% or even 90% confident about these rosters, think again. No matter how much we think we know, second-guessing is the nature of the game.
QB Sam Darnold ($7,700) -- In a tournament I might have stuck with my original pick, Aaron Rodgers. But Darnold's facing the second-worst pass defense at home. Gotta believe 16+ points are doable, and 20+ is realistic.
RB Nick Chubb ($7,900) -- Swapped out the $7,800 Aaron Jones at the last minute. I can see a 60-yard TD run in this one.
RB Leonard Fournette ($7,500) -- Surprisingly affordable, though he's been pedestrian at best in three of his last four contests. Still, I can see Gardner Minshew leaning on him in light of the opposing Chargers' top-5 pass defense.
WR Davante Adams ($8,400) -- Safe points, plain and simple.
WR Mike Evans ($7,700) -- Jameis Winston earned a vote of un-confidence from head coach Bruce Arians the other day. Evans has been held in check in four straight. That can't continue forever.
WR Chris Godwin ($7.900) -- For the fourth time in six weeks I'm going with the Bucs WR hedge. It's worked fairly well. Figure 30+ points combined is quite possible, and we've seen 50+ combined multiple times this year.
TE Ian Thomas ($4,000) -- As soon as Greg Olsen was knocked out this past Sunday, this slot was reserved for Thomas.
FLEX Bilal Powell ($4,900) -- I can see Darnold hitting Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder for buckets of points. I can also see an adept pass-catcher like Powell rack up 150+ yards against a bottom-3 run defense.
DST Saints ($3,800) -- Would like to reach for Green Bay or Minnesota, but that would mean downgrading elsewhere. New Orleans will win this titanic NFC matchup; I'll take 8+ points.
Good luck today.
There's nothing random about that. Last week Miles Sanders ($5,800) became a bargain RB when Jordan Howard was ruled out, and Kaden Smith ($4,000) got a golden opportunity as a starter despite being a third-stringer when everyone's healthy. Rolling with these two guys in my DFS 50/50 freed up funds to invest in several elite and near-elite players, and the pair racked up an impressive 29 points combined.
There are obviously parallels to regular league play, where normally unrostered players suddenly become terrific flyers or even must-start options overnight. Yesterday's news on Le'Veon Bell's status put the focus on backup Bilal Powell and, to a lesser extent, Ty Montgomery. Powell is currently rostered in less than 1% of ESPN leagues. Managers desperate for an #2 RB have received a gift--a veteran talent whose ceiling is as high as any RB2 today.
With that in mind, today's DFS lineup is possible thanks Powell. As always, these are FanDuel lineups. If you use Draft Kings, maybe swap out Davante Adams for Allen Lazard. Oh, and I made three lineup changes while writing this. So if you think I'm ever 100% or even 90% confident about these rosters, think again. No matter how much we think we know, second-guessing is the nature of the game.
QB Sam Darnold ($7,700) -- In a tournament I might have stuck with my original pick, Aaron Rodgers. But Darnold's facing the second-worst pass defense at home. Gotta believe 16+ points are doable, and 20+ is realistic.
RB Nick Chubb ($7,900) -- Swapped out the $7,800 Aaron Jones at the last minute. I can see a 60-yard TD run in this one.
RB Leonard Fournette ($7,500) -- Surprisingly affordable, though he's been pedestrian at best in three of his last four contests. Still, I can see Gardner Minshew leaning on him in light of the opposing Chargers' top-5 pass defense.
WR Davante Adams ($8,400) -- Safe points, plain and simple.
WR Mike Evans ($7,700) -- Jameis Winston earned a vote of un-confidence from head coach Bruce Arians the other day. Evans has been held in check in four straight. That can't continue forever.
WR Chris Godwin ($7.900) -- For the fourth time in six weeks I'm going with the Bucs WR hedge. It's worked fairly well. Figure 30+ points combined is quite possible, and we've seen 50+ combined multiple times this year.
TE Ian Thomas ($4,000) -- As soon as Greg Olsen was knocked out this past Sunday, this slot was reserved for Thomas.
FLEX Bilal Powell ($4,900) -- I can see Darnold hitting Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder for buckets of points. I can also see an adept pass-catcher like Powell rack up 150+ yards against a bottom-3 run defense.
DST Saints ($3,800) -- Would like to reach for Green Bay or Minnesota, but that would mean downgrading elsewhere. New Orleans will win this titanic NFC matchup; I'll take 8+ points.
Good luck today.