At this point of the season, injuries are piling up, and many teams have nothing to play for. It's a bad combination. Major question marks at RB include Le'Veon Bell and Josh Jacobs, while customary must-starts like Dalvin Cook and Marlon Mack are expected to be fine--but that comes with some seeds of doubt. Will Minnesota need to keep feeding Cook in what should be a comfortable win over the Lions? Does Indy have to throw Mack squarely into the fire with Jonathan Williams, Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines capable of sharing the load?
Then there are entirely different challenges, like a full slate of seemingly healthy Giants receivers . . . catching passes from 2025 Hall of Famer Eli Manning. This will be only the second time this season Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram share the field. The first was Week 5, when the only non-starter in the group (Slayton) outperformed every other Giant. So how can anyone reasonably predict what will happen this week? It's an estimated guess at best.
So contrarian predictions are as tough as ever, because there are fewer absolutes. I could say Slayton (WR-50 expert-consensus ranking) is a bargain. Yet he's one of five reliable options. He could wind up in the top 20 just as easily as he could finish outside the top 50. Do you start him if you don't have a sure-fire top-35 WR? Sure, nothing to lose. But I'm looking for more reliable upside--someone with a good shot of helping you win.
Last week I was 11-5 on contrarian bargains and busts, bringing my season tally to 93-57 (62%). As always, this means that 150 times I've predicted a player was vastly overvalued or vastly undervalued based on near-universal expert opinion, and 62% of the time I was right and the experts were wrong. More than that, my bargains have to be productive. One of my Week 13 bargains, Andy Dalton (QB-28), finished 20th. While that was better than nearly every expert anticipated, I tagged it as a "miss" because he wasn't startable. The same goes for busts: If I believe a TE-6 is overvalued and he finished 9th, it's a miss. The tight end was still roughly as good as experts expected.
So kicking things off, Baker Mayfield (QB-17) is one of my favorite Week 14 bargains. Between Cincinnati's anemic defense, a strong pass-catching backfield, and the anticipated return of David Njoku, Mayfield has QB1 appeal. On the flip side, Russell Wilson is aggressively priced at his consensus QB-4 ranking, while Patrick Mahomes (QB-5) is more likely to finish as a back-end QB1.
At RB, I have to pass on tempting options like Bilal Powell (RB-65) because his ranking assumes Bell will start, and only recently was it reported that Bell might not. So as an aside, grab Powell if you can, because he'll probably be a top-25 RB if Bell sits. Anyway, legit Sunday bargains that experts are overlooking include Alexander Mattison (RB-37), who should get plenty of second-half work against Detroit, and Ronald Jones (RB-34), who remains a good bet for 15+ touches despite his surprise benching last weekend.
On the flip side, Phillip Lindsay has been good-not-great in five of his past six contests, and he'll be on the road facing a Houston D giving up only six rushing touchdowns. While it's pretty dumb to call a starting RB with a #16 ranking a "bust," I think he'll be an RB3 at best.
If you're desperate for help at wide receiver, the almost universally available Jakobi Meyers (WR-78) is a fantastic off-the-radar flyer. No expert ranks him better than 66th. His target share is relatively high, as is his talent. As I've been saying for weeks, the Mohamed Sanu hype was unwarranted. The Patriots have better home-grown talent in Meyers and N'Keal Harry. I also like the often-disrespected Kenny Stills (WR-64) and the impossible-to-ignore Allen Lazard (WR-60).
On the flip side, Tyreek Hill is a big-play machine, and also one of fantasy's lowest-volume #1 receivers. I'm betting New England keeps him under 70 yards, meaning the only question is whether he scores. And New England has yielded only two passing scores at home all year. Hill is way overrated at his WR-6 ranking.
At TE, Greg Olsen hasn't practice all week, so surely experts should have given Ian Thomas more love than his consensus #26 ranking. He'll remind folks why he's one of the league's top backup tight ends, and why he'll be in the TE1 conversation next season if Olsen calls it quits. On the flip side, for all the reasons stated above, Travis Kelce (TE-2) is yet another overvalued Chief. He'll be lucky to crack 12 points.
Then there are entirely different challenges, like a full slate of seemingly healthy Giants receivers . . . catching passes from 2025 Hall of Famer Eli Manning. This will be only the second time this season Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram share the field. The first was Week 5, when the only non-starter in the group (Slayton) outperformed every other Giant. So how can anyone reasonably predict what will happen this week? It's an estimated guess at best.
So contrarian predictions are as tough as ever, because there are fewer absolutes. I could say Slayton (WR-50 expert-consensus ranking) is a bargain. Yet he's one of five reliable options. He could wind up in the top 20 just as easily as he could finish outside the top 50. Do you start him if you don't have a sure-fire top-35 WR? Sure, nothing to lose. But I'm looking for more reliable upside--someone with a good shot of helping you win.
Last week I was 11-5 on contrarian bargains and busts, bringing my season tally to 93-57 (62%). As always, this means that 150 times I've predicted a player was vastly overvalued or vastly undervalued based on near-universal expert opinion, and 62% of the time I was right and the experts were wrong. More than that, my bargains have to be productive. One of my Week 13 bargains, Andy Dalton (QB-28), finished 20th. While that was better than nearly every expert anticipated, I tagged it as a "miss" because he wasn't startable. The same goes for busts: If I believe a TE-6 is overvalued and he finished 9th, it's a miss. The tight end was still roughly as good as experts expected.
So kicking things off, Baker Mayfield (QB-17) is one of my favorite Week 14 bargains. Between Cincinnati's anemic defense, a strong pass-catching backfield, and the anticipated return of David Njoku, Mayfield has QB1 appeal. On the flip side, Russell Wilson is aggressively priced at his consensus QB-4 ranking, while Patrick Mahomes (QB-5) is more likely to finish as a back-end QB1.
At RB, I have to pass on tempting options like Bilal Powell (RB-65) because his ranking assumes Bell will start, and only recently was it reported that Bell might not. So as an aside, grab Powell if you can, because he'll probably be a top-25 RB if Bell sits. Anyway, legit Sunday bargains that experts are overlooking include Alexander Mattison (RB-37), who should get plenty of second-half work against Detroit, and Ronald Jones (RB-34), who remains a good bet for 15+ touches despite his surprise benching last weekend.
On the flip side, Phillip Lindsay has been good-not-great in five of his past six contests, and he'll be on the road facing a Houston D giving up only six rushing touchdowns. While it's pretty dumb to call a starting RB with a #16 ranking a "bust," I think he'll be an RB3 at best.
If you're desperate for help at wide receiver, the almost universally available Jakobi Meyers (WR-78) is a fantastic off-the-radar flyer. No expert ranks him better than 66th. His target share is relatively high, as is his talent. As I've been saying for weeks, the Mohamed Sanu hype was unwarranted. The Patriots have better home-grown talent in Meyers and N'Keal Harry. I also like the often-disrespected Kenny Stills (WR-64) and the impossible-to-ignore Allen Lazard (WR-60).
On the flip side, Tyreek Hill is a big-play machine, and also one of fantasy's lowest-volume #1 receivers. I'm betting New England keeps him under 70 yards, meaning the only question is whether he scores. And New England has yielded only two passing scores at home all year. Hill is way overrated at his WR-6 ranking.
At TE, Greg Olsen hasn't practice all week, so surely experts should have given Ian Thomas more love than his consensus #26 ranking. He'll remind folks why he's one of the league's top backup tight ends, and why he'll be in the TE1 conversation next season if Olsen calls it quits. On the flip side, for all the reasons stated above, Travis Kelce (TE-2) is yet another overvalued Chief. He'll be lucky to crack 12 points.