Every season injuries and weather wreak havoc on fantasy lineups. And in December--when it's often win-or-go-home--injuries and weather are often as brutal as ever.
Injuries are usually absolutes: Either someone's playing or he isn't. Occasionally they'll "give it a go," which essentially means "Start him only out of desperation." But basically, injuries force your hand by compelling you to look elsewhere.
Bad weather is entirely different. Although rain doesn't help, it doesn't doom any players to failure. While 20-30 MPH winds can hamper passing games, it doesn't mean your star wideout should be benched, or your TE1 will be worthless. And it also doesn't guarantee better RB performances. Even sub-zero temperatures don't have to scare us away. Are there risks? Sure. Yet the problem is, we don't know how severe the risks are. So our willingness to confront bad weather depends on risk tolerance and available options.
In DFS 50/50 lineups, we can afford to play things safer. So for my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week, I'm mostly turning away from games featuring high winds and/or wintry conditions. That means no Jaguars vs. Bucs, Giants vs. Packers, and Chiefs vs. Raiders. By "mostly" I mean passing attacked. Patrick Mahomes would have been an easy starter for me. Davante Adams had been in my lineup all week. And a fourth straight week of stacking Mike Evans and Chris Godwin seemed like a sure thing.
Instead, I'm playing it relatively safe. Last week I scored 135.2 points--normally a comfortably 50/50 win--and came up short. This week I think 120+ will be enough. Normally reliable fantasy options aren't as reliable. Faced with so much ugly weather, my Week 13 strategy is to get 10-15 points wherever I can. Hopefully it'll be enough.
QB Lamar Jackson ($8,700) -- Facing the Niners' vaunted D, Jackson isn't exactly an easy play. I thought about grabbing Andy Dalton at $6,000. But even against San Francisco, Jackson is a superb bet for 12+ and a solid bet for 18+. In other words, he's as safe as any QB this week.
RB Christian McCaffrey ($11,000) -- How can I not?
RB Le'Veon Bell ($7,300) -- Passing on the slightly more expensive Aaron Jones in messy weather. Bell has an ideal matchup to post 15+.
WR D.J. Moore ($6,800) -- 9+ targets in each of his past six contests. 95+ yards in his last four. And facing Washington.
WR Alshon Jeffery ($6,500) -- I don't expect many people to start Jeffery. But when healthy, he's a WR2/3 with nice upside in the right matchup. Today vs. Miami is "the right matchup."
WR DeVante Parker ($6,000) -- The clear-cut #1 offensive weapon on a team desperate for offense.
TE Kaden Smith ($4,000) -- Proved his worth last week. Expecting plenty more short-range passes by Daniel Jones today.
FLEX Miles Sanders ($5,800) -- So here's what I planned to do heading into last night: Start LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams on the assumption the Chiefs will handle the Raiders, with high winds at Arrowhead Stadium cementing the importance of the running game. But Sanders offers the most ceiling: a higher-usage back with comparable TD potential. Sanders realistically could be a top-5 option today; it all depends on whether he gets the 20+ touches I think he will.
DST Steelers ($3,700) -- I've written about this all week and even touched on it a few weeks ago: What happened Week 10 in Cleveland will be revisited today in Pittsburgh. Yesterday Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens ratcheted up the tension by wearing a t-shirt that read "Pittsburgh started it." If you think Cleveland will walk away from Heinz Field unscathed, there's still time to reconsider. I'm predicting 4+ sacks, 3+ turnovers, and at least a couple players booted. Nasty games tend to favor the home team.
Good luck today.
Injuries are usually absolutes: Either someone's playing or he isn't. Occasionally they'll "give it a go," which essentially means "Start him only out of desperation." But basically, injuries force your hand by compelling you to look elsewhere.
Bad weather is entirely different. Although rain doesn't help, it doesn't doom any players to failure. While 20-30 MPH winds can hamper passing games, it doesn't mean your star wideout should be benched, or your TE1 will be worthless. And it also doesn't guarantee better RB performances. Even sub-zero temperatures don't have to scare us away. Are there risks? Sure. Yet the problem is, we don't know how severe the risks are. So our willingness to confront bad weather depends on risk tolerance and available options.
In DFS 50/50 lineups, we can afford to play things safer. So for my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week, I'm mostly turning away from games featuring high winds and/or wintry conditions. That means no Jaguars vs. Bucs, Giants vs. Packers, and Chiefs vs. Raiders. By "mostly" I mean passing attacked. Patrick Mahomes would have been an easy starter for me. Davante Adams had been in my lineup all week. And a fourth straight week of stacking Mike Evans and Chris Godwin seemed like a sure thing.
Instead, I'm playing it relatively safe. Last week I scored 135.2 points--normally a comfortably 50/50 win--and came up short. This week I think 120+ will be enough. Normally reliable fantasy options aren't as reliable. Faced with so much ugly weather, my Week 13 strategy is to get 10-15 points wherever I can. Hopefully it'll be enough.
QB Lamar Jackson ($8,700) -- Facing the Niners' vaunted D, Jackson isn't exactly an easy play. I thought about grabbing Andy Dalton at $6,000. But even against San Francisco, Jackson is a superb bet for 12+ and a solid bet for 18+. In other words, he's as safe as any QB this week.
RB Christian McCaffrey ($11,000) -- How can I not?
RB Le'Veon Bell ($7,300) -- Passing on the slightly more expensive Aaron Jones in messy weather. Bell has an ideal matchup to post 15+.
WR D.J. Moore ($6,800) -- 9+ targets in each of his past six contests. 95+ yards in his last four. And facing Washington.
WR Alshon Jeffery ($6,500) -- I don't expect many people to start Jeffery. But when healthy, he's a WR2/3 with nice upside in the right matchup. Today vs. Miami is "the right matchup."
WR DeVante Parker ($6,000) -- The clear-cut #1 offensive weapon on a team desperate for offense.
TE Kaden Smith ($4,000) -- Proved his worth last week. Expecting plenty more short-range passes by Daniel Jones today.
FLEX Miles Sanders ($5,800) -- So here's what I planned to do heading into last night: Start LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams on the assumption the Chiefs will handle the Raiders, with high winds at Arrowhead Stadium cementing the importance of the running game. But Sanders offers the most ceiling: a higher-usage back with comparable TD potential. Sanders realistically could be a top-5 option today; it all depends on whether he gets the 20+ touches I think he will.
DST Steelers ($3,700) -- I've written about this all week and even touched on it a few weeks ago: What happened Week 10 in Cleveland will be revisited today in Pittsburgh. Yesterday Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens ratcheted up the tension by wearing a t-shirt that read "Pittsburgh started it." If you think Cleveland will walk away from Heinz Field unscathed, there's still time to reconsider. I'm predicting 4+ sacks, 3+ turnovers, and at least a couple players booted. Nasty games tend to favor the home team.
Good luck today.