Yesterday I ran down my 19 contrarian preseason predictions. Today let's pan out and scrutinize my preseason rankings. 251 of you subscribed. And all 251 of you probably used my rankings as one of multiple resources. Because no one has all the answers.
Most online draft rooms' player rankings align with their universal ADPs. So this year Saquon Barkley was usually the top name listed, followed by Christian McCaffrey, then maybe Alvin Kamara, and then--when he returned from the Caribbean--Zeke Elliott.
But suppose you used only my rankings when drafting. And suppose your opponents went solely by ADP. Who would have most likely ended up with the best team? For example, Philip Rivers was my #10 QB. His ADP was 16. He's currently the 17th highest scoring fantasy QB with no realistic shot of moving past 14th after tomorrow. That means those who listened to me and grabbed him a round or two early would have paid the price: reaching for an underperformer.
On the flip side, I ranked James Conner 17th--one of only two people in the known fantasy universe (out of 160+ experts) to list him outside the top 16. His ADP was 7th. He'll end the season outside the top 30 (and in a cool coincidence, he's 17th in points per game). That means those you listened to me and stayed away from Conner at or near his ADP reaped the benefts: avoiding an underperformer.
The following numbers are based on a fairly common 12-team, 15-round draft (180 total players) featuring my preseason top 24 QBs, top 40 RBs, top 40 WRs, top 24 TEs, top 16 DSTs, and top 16 kickers.
At QB, 10 of my rankings proved more accurate than ADP, while 12 were less accurate and one was equivalent (Russell Wilson was #8 on my draft board and in ADP). If Tom Brady performs poorly tomorrow, I'll have 11 right. If he crushes it, I'll have 13 wrong instead.
I had similar middling success at RB, where 15 of my calls were more accurate than ADP, while 17 weren't. One (Saquon Barkley) was the same between my list and ADP, and seven other running backs will be hits or misses depending on what happens tomorrow.
But in the other four positions, my rankings proved far better than ADP. My WR success rate is 16-11 with seven "same" rankings with ADP and six question marks heading into Sunday. At TE I'm 12-4-6 with two left to be decided. DST was my best position compared to ADP, netting a 7-2-5 line with two question marks remaining. And at kicker I'm 8-4-4.
What does this mean? Let's look at Matt Gay, whose preseason ADP was 28--in other words, completely undraftable. But he was 13th on my draft board--my biggest kicker bargain, period. He's now the #3 fantasy kicker. So if you ignored ADP and grabbed him at the end of your 14-team draft, you were set. Another example: Allen Robinson was my #24 WR vs. a WR-30 ADP. He's now the #7 wideout, meaning if you reached for him a little early (per my rankings), you landed a WR1 on the cheap.
Altogether I'm 68-50-23 with 39 that could go either way. If those 39 break roughly evenly, I'll be more accurate on 57%-59% of player rankings. Again, that means if you drafted using solely my rankings, you would have almost assuredly secured higher-scoring players than if you'd drafted based on ADP--and in some cases, surprisingly dominant players.
As I say every year, rankings are commodities, but they don't have to be. If the rankings you use are even slightly better than your opponents', that's an advantage you'll see all season long.
Most online draft rooms' player rankings align with their universal ADPs. So this year Saquon Barkley was usually the top name listed, followed by Christian McCaffrey, then maybe Alvin Kamara, and then--when he returned from the Caribbean--Zeke Elliott.
But suppose you used only my rankings when drafting. And suppose your opponents went solely by ADP. Who would have most likely ended up with the best team? For example, Philip Rivers was my #10 QB. His ADP was 16. He's currently the 17th highest scoring fantasy QB with no realistic shot of moving past 14th after tomorrow. That means those who listened to me and grabbed him a round or two early would have paid the price: reaching for an underperformer.
On the flip side, I ranked James Conner 17th--one of only two people in the known fantasy universe (out of 160+ experts) to list him outside the top 16. His ADP was 7th. He'll end the season outside the top 30 (and in a cool coincidence, he's 17th in points per game). That means those you listened to me and stayed away from Conner at or near his ADP reaped the benefts: avoiding an underperformer.
The following numbers are based on a fairly common 12-team, 15-round draft (180 total players) featuring my preseason top 24 QBs, top 40 RBs, top 40 WRs, top 24 TEs, top 16 DSTs, and top 16 kickers.
At QB, 10 of my rankings proved more accurate than ADP, while 12 were less accurate and one was equivalent (Russell Wilson was #8 on my draft board and in ADP). If Tom Brady performs poorly tomorrow, I'll have 11 right. If he crushes it, I'll have 13 wrong instead.
I had similar middling success at RB, where 15 of my calls were more accurate than ADP, while 17 weren't. One (Saquon Barkley) was the same between my list and ADP, and seven other running backs will be hits or misses depending on what happens tomorrow.
But in the other four positions, my rankings proved far better than ADP. My WR success rate is 16-11 with seven "same" rankings with ADP and six question marks heading into Sunday. At TE I'm 12-4-6 with two left to be decided. DST was my best position compared to ADP, netting a 7-2-5 line with two question marks remaining. And at kicker I'm 8-4-4.
What does this mean? Let's look at Matt Gay, whose preseason ADP was 28--in other words, completely undraftable. But he was 13th on my draft board--my biggest kicker bargain, period. He's now the #3 fantasy kicker. So if you ignored ADP and grabbed him at the end of your 14-team draft, you were set. Another example: Allen Robinson was my #24 WR vs. a WR-30 ADP. He's now the #7 wideout, meaning if you reached for him a little early (per my rankings), you landed a WR1 on the cheap.
Altogether I'm 68-50-23 with 39 that could go either way. If those 39 break roughly evenly, I'll be more accurate on 57%-59% of player rankings. Again, that means if you drafted using solely my rankings, you would have almost assuredly secured higher-scoring players than if you'd drafted based on ADP--and in some cases, surprisingly dominant players.
As I say every year, rankings are commodities, but they don't have to be. If the rankings you use are even slightly better than your opponents', that's an advantage you'll see all season long.