The mistakes we make are the risks we do or do not take.
Some of you ended yesterday as champions. Others as runner-ups. Some of you have everything riding on tonight. Others on next week--the always unpredictable Week 17 extravaganza.
Whatever your situation, it's been a helluva season. As always. Because every decision is a calculation. Some decisions are riskier than others. If playing it safe guaranteed victory, we'd all do it. I stacked Russell Wilson and Chris Carson in my DFS 50/50. They had 20 combined touchdowns in six home games this season. Last season they had 23. The opposing Cardinals had one of the league's worst defenses. It was an "easy" call.
The risk I *didn't* take was rejecting these great odds and choosing the much riskier Daniel Jones or Andy Dalton. Had I done that and been wrong, I'd be lamenting my needlessly dicey pick. Had Wilson played as expected (and if Carson hadn't been knocked out early), fantasy football would have made a little more sense.
Every decision is a calculation, and the easiest decisions sometimes require more thought, because easy doesn't always mean predictable. In the end, we size up every possibility the best we can, and then live with the consequences. Some of you won because of risks you did or didn't take. Some of you lost because of risks you did or didn't take. We play the percentages and hope the pre-results in our head play out the same way--or better--on the field.
Congrats to those who took home the title. Good luck to those still in the running. This page will remain up and running for another week. I realize many of you might drop off. If you do, check back next Monday for a final recap and parting words. And to those sticking around, we're not going anywhere.
As always, here's a (quick) rundown of the most notable fantasy impact of each Sunday team. If you're in a dynasty league, maybe some of this will be food for thought heading into next year. Oh, and while my DFS stunk it up thanks to the previously mentioned Wilson and Carson, my contrarian bargains and busts finished 10-7, keeping me at 59% on the season (113-for-191). My biggest hits included recommending the universally unstartable Myles Gaskin, Steven Sims, and Justin Watson. Value can be found on waivers every week--even during Championship Week.
Jaguars -- I've continually pushed Gardner Minshew over Nick Foles. That has more to do with Foles' deficiencies than with Minshew's assets. The rookie is Mitch Trubisky with a much worse defense. In other words, given how much they trail nearly every week, his numbers should be better.
Falcons -- Finally, the game many of us have been waiting for from Devonta Freeman. Keep an eye on where he lands next year (or if he somehow remains in Atlanta). There are at least a half-dozen teams (Miami, for example) where he'd be an instant starter--and a weekly fantasy starter.
Ravens -- In three of his last four games, Marquise Brown has not reached two fantasy points.
Browns -- Read the other day (won't say where) that Baker Mayfield is shouldering too much of the blame--that much of what's happened in Cleveland isn't his fault. I'm not here to say, because football is a complex sport. But Baker continues to be a fantasy disaster with six touchdowns and six turnovers in four December contests. As I wrote last week, if this team starts slow next September (keep in mind Pittsburgh should be much with Big Ben back), we might see some changes, which might seem crazy given Baker, Jarvis Landry, and OBJ are all signed through 2023 or 2024.
Saints -- Tweeted yesterday morning some research I did in response to a reader question. Alvin Kamara had only five rushing attempts and one TD inside the opposing 5-yard line this year. Last year he had 16 runs and nine TDs inside the 5. Essentially, that was why he wasn't playing like a near-elite fantasy RB, because everything else--efficiency, receptions, etc.--lined up closely with last year's terrific numbers. So when Kamara earned multiple goal-line looks yesterday, we finally got a glimpse of his former self.
Titans -- Ryan Tannehill proved me wrong. Another incredible performance.
Panthers -- When D.J. Moore went out, this two-dimensional offense became one-dimensional.
Colts -- Marlon Mack did better than expected. When he scores, he's startable. When he doesn't, he isn't. If he can work on pass-catching (like Zeke Elliott did after his rookie year), Mack could be an RB1 next year.
Bengals -- Tyler Boyd is now the 20th highest scoring WR and can easily finish in the top 16 with one final solid effort.
Dolphins -- Mentioned Myles Gaskin above. I've been pushing him for weeks as a better option than starter Patrick Laird. Although he's not "the answer" in Miami, he's the best they've got, and yesterday that was good enough for like-minded fantasy managers.
Steelers -- Last year Pittsburgh scored 28+ points eight times. This year, zero times. James Conner looked solid before leaving the field, but his predictably troublesome season should serve as a warning to those considering keeping him in dynasty: I doubt he'll lead this backfield in 2020.
Jets -- Prediction: The overrated Le'Veon Bell will average less than 14 touches a game next year.
Giants -- This is how good this team can be on offense. Nice to see everyone healthy (except Evan Engram).
Redskins -- Adrian Peterson: helping fantasy managers since 2007.
Lions -- Every time I think Kenny Golladay is benchable (going against Chris Harris yesterday), he's not.
Broncos -- Thought this summer Royce Freeman would overtake Phillip Lindsay. Painfully wrong.
Raiders -- DeAndre Washington's 3.3 YPC reminds us how poorly he's run in each of the past three seasons. But fantasy-wise, he delivered far above my expectations.
Chargers -- Somehow I bought into Philip Rivers taking out a season's worth of frustration on Oakland. I know they won't bench him, but Tyrod Taylor needs to be starting.
Cowboys -- On par with the Browns for "most disappointing season." On the plus side, Michael Gallup continues to prove he's ready to be a #1 if Amari Cooper ever leaves.
Eagles -- With Zach Ertz ailing, Dallas Goedert stepped up when it mattered most. He'll be in the top-16 conversation next season, even with everyone healthy.
Cardinals -- For the 20th time, Kenyan Drake . . .
Seahawks -- Seattle lost more than an incredibly winnable game; they also lost Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise for the year. Travis Homer should be on every DFS radar.
Chiefs -- Damien Williams enjoyed one of his best games of the year.
Bears -- Despite what's happened in 2019, I'm looking forward to drafting David Montgomery a round early in 2020. I think Chicago's coaching staff will realize this offseason that the offense has to run through him, and they'll game-plan accordingly.
Some of you ended yesterday as champions. Others as runner-ups. Some of you have everything riding on tonight. Others on next week--the always unpredictable Week 17 extravaganza.
Whatever your situation, it's been a helluva season. As always. Because every decision is a calculation. Some decisions are riskier than others. If playing it safe guaranteed victory, we'd all do it. I stacked Russell Wilson and Chris Carson in my DFS 50/50. They had 20 combined touchdowns in six home games this season. Last season they had 23. The opposing Cardinals had one of the league's worst defenses. It was an "easy" call.
The risk I *didn't* take was rejecting these great odds and choosing the much riskier Daniel Jones or Andy Dalton. Had I done that and been wrong, I'd be lamenting my needlessly dicey pick. Had Wilson played as expected (and if Carson hadn't been knocked out early), fantasy football would have made a little more sense.
Every decision is a calculation, and the easiest decisions sometimes require more thought, because easy doesn't always mean predictable. In the end, we size up every possibility the best we can, and then live with the consequences. Some of you won because of risks you did or didn't take. Some of you lost because of risks you did or didn't take. We play the percentages and hope the pre-results in our head play out the same way--or better--on the field.
Congrats to those who took home the title. Good luck to those still in the running. This page will remain up and running for another week. I realize many of you might drop off. If you do, check back next Monday for a final recap and parting words. And to those sticking around, we're not going anywhere.
As always, here's a (quick) rundown of the most notable fantasy impact of each Sunday team. If you're in a dynasty league, maybe some of this will be food for thought heading into next year. Oh, and while my DFS stunk it up thanks to the previously mentioned Wilson and Carson, my contrarian bargains and busts finished 10-7, keeping me at 59% on the season (113-for-191). My biggest hits included recommending the universally unstartable Myles Gaskin, Steven Sims, and Justin Watson. Value can be found on waivers every week--even during Championship Week.
Jaguars -- I've continually pushed Gardner Minshew over Nick Foles. That has more to do with Foles' deficiencies than with Minshew's assets. The rookie is Mitch Trubisky with a much worse defense. In other words, given how much they trail nearly every week, his numbers should be better.
Falcons -- Finally, the game many of us have been waiting for from Devonta Freeman. Keep an eye on where he lands next year (or if he somehow remains in Atlanta). There are at least a half-dozen teams (Miami, for example) where he'd be an instant starter--and a weekly fantasy starter.
Ravens -- In three of his last four games, Marquise Brown has not reached two fantasy points.
Browns -- Read the other day (won't say where) that Baker Mayfield is shouldering too much of the blame--that much of what's happened in Cleveland isn't his fault. I'm not here to say, because football is a complex sport. But Baker continues to be a fantasy disaster with six touchdowns and six turnovers in four December contests. As I wrote last week, if this team starts slow next September (keep in mind Pittsburgh should be much with Big Ben back), we might see some changes, which might seem crazy given Baker, Jarvis Landry, and OBJ are all signed through 2023 or 2024.
Saints -- Tweeted yesterday morning some research I did in response to a reader question. Alvin Kamara had only five rushing attempts and one TD inside the opposing 5-yard line this year. Last year he had 16 runs and nine TDs inside the 5. Essentially, that was why he wasn't playing like a near-elite fantasy RB, because everything else--efficiency, receptions, etc.--lined up closely with last year's terrific numbers. So when Kamara earned multiple goal-line looks yesterday, we finally got a glimpse of his former self.
Titans -- Ryan Tannehill proved me wrong. Another incredible performance.
Panthers -- When D.J. Moore went out, this two-dimensional offense became one-dimensional.
Colts -- Marlon Mack did better than expected. When he scores, he's startable. When he doesn't, he isn't. If he can work on pass-catching (like Zeke Elliott did after his rookie year), Mack could be an RB1 next year.
Bengals -- Tyler Boyd is now the 20th highest scoring WR and can easily finish in the top 16 with one final solid effort.
Dolphins -- Mentioned Myles Gaskin above. I've been pushing him for weeks as a better option than starter Patrick Laird. Although he's not "the answer" in Miami, he's the best they've got, and yesterday that was good enough for like-minded fantasy managers.
Steelers -- Last year Pittsburgh scored 28+ points eight times. This year, zero times. James Conner looked solid before leaving the field, but his predictably troublesome season should serve as a warning to those considering keeping him in dynasty: I doubt he'll lead this backfield in 2020.
Jets -- Prediction: The overrated Le'Veon Bell will average less than 14 touches a game next year.
Giants -- This is how good this team can be on offense. Nice to see everyone healthy (except Evan Engram).
Redskins -- Adrian Peterson: helping fantasy managers since 2007.
Lions -- Every time I think Kenny Golladay is benchable (going against Chris Harris yesterday), he's not.
Broncos -- Thought this summer Royce Freeman would overtake Phillip Lindsay. Painfully wrong.
Raiders -- DeAndre Washington's 3.3 YPC reminds us how poorly he's run in each of the past three seasons. But fantasy-wise, he delivered far above my expectations.
Chargers -- Somehow I bought into Philip Rivers taking out a season's worth of frustration on Oakland. I know they won't bench him, but Tyrod Taylor needs to be starting.
Cowboys -- On par with the Browns for "most disappointing season." On the plus side, Michael Gallup continues to prove he's ready to be a #1 if Amari Cooper ever leaves.
Eagles -- With Zach Ertz ailing, Dallas Goedert stepped up when it mattered most. He'll be in the top-16 conversation next season, even with everyone healthy.
Cardinals -- For the 20th time, Kenyan Drake . . .
Seahawks -- Seattle lost more than an incredibly winnable game; they also lost Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise for the year. Travis Homer should be on every DFS radar.
Chiefs -- Damien Williams enjoyed one of his best games of the year.
Bears -- Despite what's happened in 2019, I'm looking forward to drafting David Montgomery a round early in 2020. I think Chicago's coaching staff will realize this offseason that the offense has to run through him, and they'll game-plan accordingly.