An eventful Sunday for many of you. To those who missed the playoffs, fantasy's a ferocious animal. To those who made the playoffs, fantasy's an easily tamed animal.
It's all about perspective, isn't it? A player can be awful for three quarters and then score in the fourth to net 10 fantasy points and put you over the top. Or that player could score in the first and then be awful the rest of the game, collecting only 10 points and costing you the win. Same point total. Entirely different outcome, and an entirely different feeling about how your player did.
Yesterday my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week got the job done, with two of Week 13's top three wideouts: Alshon Jeffery and DeVante Parker. If you played this lineup in tournaments, you probably won decent money. After taking the loss last week (some of you won with it, but many more of you lost), my record for the year is now a middling 6-6-1. Hoping to finish strong.
And my highly contrarian Week 13 bargains and busts worked out well. Bargains included Kyle Allen (QB-21 ranking), Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB-26), and Alshon Jeffery (WR-44). Busts included Jameis Winston (QB-7), Josh Jacobs (RB-7), Nick Chubb (RB-11), Chris Godwin (WR-4), and OBJ (WR-15). I took a lot of flack for several of these calls, including strong push-back on the seemingly invincible Jacobs and Chubb. Keep in mind, Jacobs and OBJ are on my team. I have nothing to gain trashing them. But when it seems clear to me, I roll with it. I also try to play these by the book. One of my bargains, Andy Dalton (QB-28), is currently the 18th best Week 13 QB. Sure, he outperformed expectations. But I'm calling it a loss because he wasn't streamable. As a result, I'm sitting at 11-5, pushing my season total to 93-for-150 (62%).
With that, as always, here's a rundown of the most fantasy-relevant stories of each Sunday team:
Jets -- The Sam Darnold train hit a bump in the road (or to keep the metaphor going, "on the tracks"). I recommended him to many of you each of the past three weeks. The first two hit. Yesterday obviously didn't despite Darnold throwing 48 times (compared to a season average of 33). Most interestingly, Robby Anderson continues his ascent while Jamison Crowder (two catches on nine targets) continues his descent.
Bengals -- As I alluded to Saturday, head coach Zac Taylor made the right call restoring Andy Dalton to the starting job. In deep leagues, roster him for Week 16's matchup against Miami.
Titans -- I warned about a Ryan Tannehill regression while also painfully praising Jonnu Smith. The big story here is Derrick Henry posting his third consecutive monster game. He has 496 rushing yards during that stretch. Unreal.
Colts -- Jonathan Williams crashed. Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines stepped up. Zach Pascal led the way. And Jack Doyle enjoyed life without Eric Ebron. With Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton potentially returning next week, this offense is about to shift, so don't look at any of Sunday's outputs as a sign of things to come.
Eagles -- The knock on Alshon Jeffery isn't talent; it's health. He's missed 3+ games in four of the past five seasons. Also, Miles Sanders looks like a bellcow of the future.
Dolphins -- Kalen Ballage's leg injury mercifully opened the door for Patrick Laird and a little Myles Gaskin. Gaskin's my pick to eventually be the 1A if Ballage misses time. And while I talk about DeVante Parker nearly every week, it needs to be repeated: This summer he was the consensus 78th-ranked fantasy WR, which I wrote on August 8th was "insane--a complete misreading of the situation." 99% of experts ranked him outside the top 45. Skeptics might say Preston Williams' injury opened the door. But Parker was already a WR4 playing alongside Williams. The reality is, he's one of the least appreciated weekly starters in fantasy.
Packers -- Aaron Jones was #3 in rushing yards. Allen Lazard was the top receiver. The former is an outlier. The latter should be taken seriously. With no obvious #2 behind Davante Adams, Lazard could be a surprise fantasy asset down the stretch.
Giants -- Four guys had 7+ targets, with third-string TE Kaden Smith leading the way. Smith was in my DFS lineup. If he continues to start due to injuries to Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison, upcoming contests against Philly, Miami, and Washington should make him a mainstay in fantasy lineups.
Browns -- Cleveland wasn't obliterated like I thought they'd be. But they were clearly outmatched. Third-string rookie Devlin Hodges and backup Benny Snell narrowly outplayed Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb. Of course, all of this will change next week in a terrific home game against Cincinnati.
Steelers -- James Washington did it again. With JuJu Smith-Schuster out, Washington is the most talented receiver on the field. He's also not earning much volume, so he'll continue to be a boom-bust option.
Redskins -- A shocking victory. This game looked out of hand early. Then Washington ticked off 29 straight points while keeping Christian McCaffrey largely in check. In only his fourth NFL game, Derrius Guice finally showed what made him a second-round pick last summer. Admittedly, I didn't think he'd be a factor until 2020.
Panthers -- Curtis Samuel enjoyed his second-best game of the season. And Greg Olsen's injury led to the return of solid backup Ian Thomas, who should be a top-16 TE if Olsen's sidelined.
Buccaneers -- Up is down, down is up. Jameis Winston (as expected) fell short of where most people placed him this week. But who could have guessed Breshad Perriman would lead all receivers, Peyton Barber would dominate, and Ronald Jones would produce less than a single fantasy point? The passing game should return to normal next week against Indy. However, the running game's a different story, as Jones somehow still hasn't earned his coaches' trust.
Jaguars -- When Gardner Minshew was benched for the returning Nick Foles, I complained--not as a fantasy guy, but as an NFL fan. I want to see the best players out there each week, and Foles is not better than Minshew. If yesterday means Minshew will get the job back, all key offensive players will get a boost.
49ers -- Raheem Mostert apparently is now the Niner RB to start. Tevin Coleman's decline since his three-TD breakout two months ago has been well documented. You can't keep rushing for under 2.0 YPC (three times in the past five weeks) and keep your job.
Ravens -- Lamar Jackson realistically is one game away from breaking Michael Vick's single-season QB rushing record (1,039 yards in 2006). The difference? Vick's Falcons were 7-9 that year. He completed only 52.6% of his pass attempts and had a weak 75.7 QB rating. Jackson's Ravens are 10-2, and their floor general has completed 66.5% of his attempts en route to a 109.6 QB rating. Simply put there has never been a quarterback like Jackson.
Rams -- Vintage Jared Goff. Of course, not saying much against Arizona. But a road performance like this one deserves some applause. Most interestingly, Tyler Higbee surprised me. Some of you saw it coming, so congrats on that. I'll reserve judgment until we see what he can do against Seattle next week--assuming Gerald Everett's still out.
Cardinals -- Credit the Rams' D for slowing down this offense. Kyler Murray is taking too many sacks and needs a reliable running game. That didn't happen yesterday, as the backfield intrigue continued with Kenyan Drake giving way David Johnson down the stretch. My money remains firmly on Drake.
Chargers -- I posted a poll on Twitter yesterday morning asking which QB will take more snaps in the fourth quarter: Philip Rivers or backup Tyrod Taylor. After Rivers' first-quarter interception, Taylor was seen warming up on the sideline. He should have come in. Rivers' TD to Austin Ekeler was a throw most college quarterbacks could make, and his other TD pass was to an inexplicably wide-open Keenan Allen. If Rivers doesn't improve next season, he won't remain the starter; it's that simple.
Broncos -- Didn't trust Courtland Sutton because I didn't trust Drew Lock. Lock wasn't as bad as I thought he'd be, and Sutton was much, much better. Lock will continue to muddle through an abridged rookie season. I'm betting It won't be pretty next week in Houston or the following week in Kansas City.
Raiders -- In his last two games, Tyrell Williams has three catches on 10 targets for 27 scoreless yards. Even with Hunter Renfrow out, Williams couldn't take advantage. It will obviously be hard to recommend him again this year.
Chiefs -- Darrel Williams got hurt and Darwin Thompson looked strong in relief. If Damien and Darrel are out next week, Darwin could finally live up to his promise.
Patriots -- Heard on the NBC broadcast that Tom Brady had never had back-to-back games with sub-50% completion percentages. Garbage-time saved him from that fate. On paper he's now fantasy's 10th best QB. In reality he's not. Oh, and remember James White's Week 12 clunker? Quite a rebound. Never count out talent.
Texans -- Duke Johnson outperformed Carlos Hyde. Kenny Stills outshined Will Fuller. But the only reliable conclusion is that Deshaun Watson rose to the occasion. He's now the #2 fantasy QB.
It's all about perspective, isn't it? A player can be awful for three quarters and then score in the fourth to net 10 fantasy points and put you over the top. Or that player could score in the first and then be awful the rest of the game, collecting only 10 points and costing you the win. Same point total. Entirely different outcome, and an entirely different feeling about how your player did.
Yesterday my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week got the job done, with two of Week 13's top three wideouts: Alshon Jeffery and DeVante Parker. If you played this lineup in tournaments, you probably won decent money. After taking the loss last week (some of you won with it, but many more of you lost), my record for the year is now a middling 6-6-1. Hoping to finish strong.
And my highly contrarian Week 13 bargains and busts worked out well. Bargains included Kyle Allen (QB-21 ranking), Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB-26), and Alshon Jeffery (WR-44). Busts included Jameis Winston (QB-7), Josh Jacobs (RB-7), Nick Chubb (RB-11), Chris Godwin (WR-4), and OBJ (WR-15). I took a lot of flack for several of these calls, including strong push-back on the seemingly invincible Jacobs and Chubb. Keep in mind, Jacobs and OBJ are on my team. I have nothing to gain trashing them. But when it seems clear to me, I roll with it. I also try to play these by the book. One of my bargains, Andy Dalton (QB-28), is currently the 18th best Week 13 QB. Sure, he outperformed expectations. But I'm calling it a loss because he wasn't streamable. As a result, I'm sitting at 11-5, pushing my season total to 93-for-150 (62%).
With that, as always, here's a rundown of the most fantasy-relevant stories of each Sunday team:
Jets -- The Sam Darnold train hit a bump in the road (or to keep the metaphor going, "on the tracks"). I recommended him to many of you each of the past three weeks. The first two hit. Yesterday obviously didn't despite Darnold throwing 48 times (compared to a season average of 33). Most interestingly, Robby Anderson continues his ascent while Jamison Crowder (two catches on nine targets) continues his descent.
Bengals -- As I alluded to Saturday, head coach Zac Taylor made the right call restoring Andy Dalton to the starting job. In deep leagues, roster him for Week 16's matchup against Miami.
Titans -- I warned about a Ryan Tannehill regression while also painfully praising Jonnu Smith. The big story here is Derrick Henry posting his third consecutive monster game. He has 496 rushing yards during that stretch. Unreal.
Colts -- Jonathan Williams crashed. Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines stepped up. Zach Pascal led the way. And Jack Doyle enjoyed life without Eric Ebron. With Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton potentially returning next week, this offense is about to shift, so don't look at any of Sunday's outputs as a sign of things to come.
Eagles -- The knock on Alshon Jeffery isn't talent; it's health. He's missed 3+ games in four of the past five seasons. Also, Miles Sanders looks like a bellcow of the future.
Dolphins -- Kalen Ballage's leg injury mercifully opened the door for Patrick Laird and a little Myles Gaskin. Gaskin's my pick to eventually be the 1A if Ballage misses time. And while I talk about DeVante Parker nearly every week, it needs to be repeated: This summer he was the consensus 78th-ranked fantasy WR, which I wrote on August 8th was "insane--a complete misreading of the situation." 99% of experts ranked him outside the top 45. Skeptics might say Preston Williams' injury opened the door. But Parker was already a WR4 playing alongside Williams. The reality is, he's one of the least appreciated weekly starters in fantasy.
Packers -- Aaron Jones was #3 in rushing yards. Allen Lazard was the top receiver. The former is an outlier. The latter should be taken seriously. With no obvious #2 behind Davante Adams, Lazard could be a surprise fantasy asset down the stretch.
Giants -- Four guys had 7+ targets, with third-string TE Kaden Smith leading the way. Smith was in my DFS lineup. If he continues to start due to injuries to Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison, upcoming contests against Philly, Miami, and Washington should make him a mainstay in fantasy lineups.
Browns -- Cleveland wasn't obliterated like I thought they'd be. But they were clearly outmatched. Third-string rookie Devlin Hodges and backup Benny Snell narrowly outplayed Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb. Of course, all of this will change next week in a terrific home game against Cincinnati.
Steelers -- James Washington did it again. With JuJu Smith-Schuster out, Washington is the most talented receiver on the field. He's also not earning much volume, so he'll continue to be a boom-bust option.
Redskins -- A shocking victory. This game looked out of hand early. Then Washington ticked off 29 straight points while keeping Christian McCaffrey largely in check. In only his fourth NFL game, Derrius Guice finally showed what made him a second-round pick last summer. Admittedly, I didn't think he'd be a factor until 2020.
Panthers -- Curtis Samuel enjoyed his second-best game of the season. And Greg Olsen's injury led to the return of solid backup Ian Thomas, who should be a top-16 TE if Olsen's sidelined.
Buccaneers -- Up is down, down is up. Jameis Winston (as expected) fell short of where most people placed him this week. But who could have guessed Breshad Perriman would lead all receivers, Peyton Barber would dominate, and Ronald Jones would produce less than a single fantasy point? The passing game should return to normal next week against Indy. However, the running game's a different story, as Jones somehow still hasn't earned his coaches' trust.
Jaguars -- When Gardner Minshew was benched for the returning Nick Foles, I complained--not as a fantasy guy, but as an NFL fan. I want to see the best players out there each week, and Foles is not better than Minshew. If yesterday means Minshew will get the job back, all key offensive players will get a boost.
49ers -- Raheem Mostert apparently is now the Niner RB to start. Tevin Coleman's decline since his three-TD breakout two months ago has been well documented. You can't keep rushing for under 2.0 YPC (three times in the past five weeks) and keep your job.
Ravens -- Lamar Jackson realistically is one game away from breaking Michael Vick's single-season QB rushing record (1,039 yards in 2006). The difference? Vick's Falcons were 7-9 that year. He completed only 52.6% of his pass attempts and had a weak 75.7 QB rating. Jackson's Ravens are 10-2, and their floor general has completed 66.5% of his attempts en route to a 109.6 QB rating. Simply put there has never been a quarterback like Jackson.
Rams -- Vintage Jared Goff. Of course, not saying much against Arizona. But a road performance like this one deserves some applause. Most interestingly, Tyler Higbee surprised me. Some of you saw it coming, so congrats on that. I'll reserve judgment until we see what he can do against Seattle next week--assuming Gerald Everett's still out.
Cardinals -- Credit the Rams' D for slowing down this offense. Kyler Murray is taking too many sacks and needs a reliable running game. That didn't happen yesterday, as the backfield intrigue continued with Kenyan Drake giving way David Johnson down the stretch. My money remains firmly on Drake.
Chargers -- I posted a poll on Twitter yesterday morning asking which QB will take more snaps in the fourth quarter: Philip Rivers or backup Tyrod Taylor. After Rivers' first-quarter interception, Taylor was seen warming up on the sideline. He should have come in. Rivers' TD to Austin Ekeler was a throw most college quarterbacks could make, and his other TD pass was to an inexplicably wide-open Keenan Allen. If Rivers doesn't improve next season, he won't remain the starter; it's that simple.
Broncos -- Didn't trust Courtland Sutton because I didn't trust Drew Lock. Lock wasn't as bad as I thought he'd be, and Sutton was much, much better. Lock will continue to muddle through an abridged rookie season. I'm betting It won't be pretty next week in Houston or the following week in Kansas City.
Raiders -- In his last two games, Tyrell Williams has three catches on 10 targets for 27 scoreless yards. Even with Hunter Renfrow out, Williams couldn't take advantage. It will obviously be hard to recommend him again this year.
Chiefs -- Darrel Williams got hurt and Darwin Thompson looked strong in relief. If Damien and Darrel are out next week, Darwin could finally live up to his promise.
Patriots -- Heard on the NBC broadcast that Tom Brady had never had back-to-back games with sub-50% completion percentages. Garbage-time saved him from that fate. On paper he's now fantasy's 10th best QB. In reality he's not. Oh, and remember James White's Week 12 clunker? Quite a rebound. Never count out talent.
Texans -- Duke Johnson outperformed Carlos Hyde. Kenny Stills outshined Will Fuller. But the only reliable conclusion is that Deshaun Watson rose to the occasion. He's now the #2 fantasy QB.